US-China Confrontation Scenarios: Consequences for Russia – An Analysis from Moscow

A new report, published on June 9, 2025, by Eurasian Strategies MGIMO Consulting, a Russian company specializing in risk analysis and strategies, outlines the scenarios of confrontation between the United States and China and their potential ramifications for Russia. The document, titled "US-China Confrontation Scenarios: Consequences for Russia" and authored by Andrey Sushentsov and Andrey Bezrukov, offers a Russian perspective on evolving geopolitical dynamics. The report highlights an irreversible shift in US military and economic priorities from Europe to Asia, aiming for long-term containment of China. Taiwan emerges as the focal point of this confrontation, crucial for US global leadership and for China's "great rejuvenation," despite Beijing's strategic vulnerability stemming from reliance on maritime routes, particularly the Strait of Malacca.

The evolving military balance is detailed, with the US strengthening alliances and deploying missiles in the region, while China rapidly modernizes its forces and bolsters defenses. The US is employing "seduction" tactics to provoke China into a prolonged proxy conflict, rather than a direct confrontation.

A key aspect is the hybrid confrontation on maritime routes, where the US uses semi-autonomous platforms to interfere with Chinese logistics. These operations, while "formally legal" and not explicitly violating international maritime law, generate significant economic costs for Beijing, operating in a "gray zone" of deterrence.

The global geoeconomic consequences of a Taiwan conflict would be catastrophic: logistical paralysis, an economic war that could reduce global GDP by up to 10%, disruptions in worldwide microchip production, the formation of closed techno-economic blocs, and an escalation of other regional crises.

For Russia, the report suggests a strategic role in increasing energy and raw material exports to China and strengthening their partnership, while maintaining autonomy. Emphasis is placed on developing a sovereign techno-economic platform based on the Eurasian Economic Union and promoting de-dollarization and the integration of alternative payment systems, within a context of global technological and financial fragmentation.

The Shifting Geopolitical Center of Gravity and the China-US Rivalry

The report highlights how the military and economic priorities of the United States are irreversibly shifting from Europe to Asia. Washington's foreign policy strategy is focused on containing and pushing back China, not as a fleeting attention, but as a long-term objective. Evidence of this includes two-thirds of US Navy ships being deployed in the Asia-Pacific region, and Washington actively bolstering the military infrastructure of the "second island chain" (Guam, Palau) to counter China.

The United States considers the Ukrainian crisis a "rear-echelon" conflict, while the real strategic competition is playing out in East and Southeast Asia, regions that maintain high growth rates (3-6% annually) compared to weak European growth. China is perceived as a strategic competitor capable of achieving global primacy, pushing the United States to provoke Beijing into conflictual actions to alienate its neighbors and allies.

Taiwan: The Crucial Knot and Strategic Vulnerabilities

The confrontation between the United States and China is constantly escalating, encompassing economic, technological, political-military, and ideological spheres. The Taiwan issue remains the central knot. For Beijing, reunification with Taiwan is fundamental to the project of "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" and to gain unobstructed access to the Pacific Ocean, ensuring freedom of maneuver for its fleet. The urgency of this task is accentuated by China's dependence on the Strait of Malacca, through which up to 80% of imported oil and 60% of overall maritime trade passes.

The United States, conversely, views maintaining the status quo around Taiwan as crucial for preserving its global leadership. The island is considered a key instrument of deterrence and power projection for the American fleet. In a context of significant reduction in support for Ukraine, maintaining the "pyramid of trust" of allies in US policy in the Asia-Pacific is a vital task.

China's reliance on maritime trade represents its strategic vulnerability. Limited actions against Chinese port infrastructure or maritime routes could cause billions of dollars in economic damage. For example, closing the port of Shanghai would cost the Chinese economy one billion dollars a day. Beijing is aware of this vulnerability and is seeking to reduce it by diversifying energy imports and bolstering its naval capabilities.

Military Balance and Coercive Tactics

The report indicates that the United States is modernizing its navy and consolidating key alliances with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, deploying medium-range missiles that enhance strike capabilities. While the United States maintains a qualitative advantage in aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, intelligence systems, and integrated air defense, this advantage is diminishing as China introduces multi-purpose destroyers, large landing ships, and long-range missiles.

China is accelerating the deployment of fifth-generation fighters and drone development, while also expanding its network of airfields and underground shelters in the South China Sea to enhance its resilience to a preemptive strike. The result is a complex balance of capabilities, where success is determined by the speed of mobilization and the protection of critical communication lines.

On the nuclear front, Washington and Beijing continue to modernize their forces. By 2030, China could possess around a thousand nuclear warheads, influencing US discussions on expanding its own forces. The risk of lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use in the Taiwan confrontation is not ruled out. Nevertheless, Beijing believes time is on its side and will avoid decisive actions until it achieves a convincing military superiority in the Eastern Pacific.

The United States is trying to provoke China into using force through "seduction" tactics. The goal is to create an image of Taiwan as a vulnerable target, prompting Beijing to premature actions. At the same time, Washington strengthens the island's defenses with arms supplies, military instructors, and anti-amphibious infrastructure, prioritizing distributed and mobile weapons for a prolonged and exhausting defense. This would create a trap for China: any forceful solution would result in a costly and protracted campaign, with risks of international isolation and severe economic consequences. The US objective is not direct military confrontation, but to involve Beijing in a prolonged proxy conflict.

Signs of Escalation and Hybrid Confrontation Scenarios

The report identifies alarming signs of escalation. On the Chinese side, this would involve accelerated mobilization acts, concentration of military forces on the southeastern coast, and strict subordination of internal political discourse to the "reunification" agenda. The United States and allies would respond by intensifying joint operation planning, deploying nuclear submarines in the immediate vicinity of the first island chain, and bolstering missile defense elements and medium-range missile systems in the territory of American allies in the Pacific. The third indicator would be a transition to an actual blockade, with Chinese restrictions on air and sea traffic around Taiwan, accompanied by massive cyberattacks on Taiwanese infrastructure, while Washington would issue emergency navigation warnings and announce expanded sanctions against China's military-industrial complex.

Hybrid Confrontation on Maritime Routes and Legal "Gray Zone"

A particularly relevant aspect highlighted by the report concerns the nature of hybrid confrontation on maritime routes. The Chinese economy, intrinsically linked to exports and imports by sea, is extremely vulnerable to disruptions in these vital corridors. To exploit this vulnerability, the United States is paying increasing attention to ensuring navigation security in strategically sensitive regions such as the Red Sea and Southeast Asia.

A key element of this strategy is the deployment of semi-autonomous surface platforms: escort vessels equipped with reconnaissance drones, electronic warfare systems, and missile weapons. These units, while "formally designed to protect oil tankers and merchant ships," are transforming into instruments of "hybrid" force pressure. The report emphasizes that, operating "without declaring a blockade and without violating international maritime law," these platforms are capable of significantly interfering with Chinese logistics. This occurs through:

• Conducting inspections: Disrupting transit times for ships.

• Creating navigation obstacles: Delaying or diverting routes.

• Simulating a threat: Inducing precautionary diversions or slowdowns.

• Providing fire support to allied forces: Offering "legal" assistance that can still impact commercial operations.

Due to their autonomy, such vessels operate with minimal political risk for Washington, while imposing real and tangible economic costs on Beijing, ranging from the disruption of delivery schedules to increased insurance rates for Chinese goods. This approach sets a precedent for a "new form of deterrence at sea: targeted, controlled, and formally legal pressure" that can be rapidly intensified or reduced depending on the operational situation. The objective is to influence China's maritime activity in the "gray zone," potentially achieving significant strategic effects without triggering open conflict or explicitly violating international navigation norms.

In a scenario of a temporary blockade of the Strait of Malacca, China would face an immediate "transport shock," with the interruption of essential supplies. Land alternatives would be insufficient and entail enormous costs. A "creeping increase in the cost" of energy imports, due to slowdowns and insurance hikes, would reduce the competitiveness of Chinese companies. The report also posits the possibility of restrictive measures targeting only ships flying Chinese flags or carrying Chinese goods, a more political than economic blow that would demonstrate the US capacity to selectively limit a crucial artery.

Global Geoeconomic Consequences

An armed conflict over Taiwan would have catastrophic global consequences:

1. Paralysis of maritime and air logistics in the East and South China Seas, leading to a collapse of global trade and the search for more expensive alternative routes.

2. A full-blown economic war, with asset freezes, investment and trade restrictions, and the decoupling of techno-economic blocs. Global GDP is estimated to fall by up to 10%, representing the strongest shock to the global financial system and economy in the 21st century.

3. Colossal damage to Taiwan's electronics industry, a world leader in microchip production, resulting in a global chip shortage and disruptions in key sectors such as automotive, electronics, medical, and defense.

4. The break with the United States would stimulate the formation of relatively closed techno-economic blocs, with their own standards and supply chains, reversing globalization.

5. The Taiwan crisis could catalyze escalation between North and South Korea.

6. Many countries would seek to remain neutral, while also looking for economic or political benefits.

7. No conflict would be definitive; every "victory" would be relative and lead to a more violent and dangerous phase of global rivalry.

   
   

Russia's Role

In the context of a potential conflict between the United States and China, Russia can play a strategically significant role. Moscow could increase exports of rare earths, energy resources, and agricultural products to China, leveraging geographical proximity and developed rail and port infrastructure. Russia could ensure an uninterrupted energy supply to China via pipelines and facilitate the use of transit routes through the Northern Sea Route.

The strategic partnership with China is set to strengthen, but for Russia, it will be crucial to maintain autonomy and diversify its external relations to avoid excessive dependence on a single partner. The report emphasizes the importance for Russia to strengthen its techno-economic platform based on the Eurasian Economic Union in a context of global technological and financial "decoupling."

China is already promoting de-dollarization and the use of the yuan in cross-border payments, with record volumes in 2025 and the development of CIPS and UnionPay QR systems in Southeast Asia. The share of national currencies in payments between Russia and China already exceeds 95%. Russia, in turn, is intensifying the integration of banking systems with "friendly" countries and developing its own financial messaging system. In this context of global financial fragmentation, a sovereign technological base is considered the foundation of an alternative financial system.

Source: Eurasian Strategies MGIMO Consulting

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