China’s "Intelligent Warfare" Strategy: The Orca Disappearance and the Dual-Domain A2/AD Challenge
- Nicola Iuvinale
- 2 giorni fa
- Tempo di lettura: 4 min
The Confirmed Air Incidents and the Shadow of the Submarine "Thousand-Hand Guanyin"
The alleged disappearance on October 17, 2025, of the US Navy's cutting-edge Extra-Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (Orca LDUUV) in the strategically critical waters of the Xisha Islands, marks the climax of a series of incidents raising alarm in the United States. This event follows, and may be linked to, confirmed and verified air incidents that occurred in the same operational theater in 2025: the confirmed crashes of a F/A-18F Super Hornet fighter and an MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter in close proximity.The loss of the Orca, an asset valued at nearly $275 million, is disseminated through Chinese OSINT channels and correlated with the activation of China's submarine surveillance system, the "Thousand-Hand Guanyin." This system symbolizes China's capability to enforce an effective Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy, extending from the sky to the seabed. US Strategic Concerns: Such incidents and China's escalating assertiveness are analyzed in light of Beijing's massive military overhaul. Officials like US Space Command Commander, Stephen Whiting, express alarm over the alarming and surprising pace at which China is advancing in space, tripling its ISR satellites and developing anti-space weaponry to threaten US capabilities. Furthermore, the quantitative disparity in drone production (China produces 24 times more) and the establishment of the Information Support Force (ISF) underscore China's ambition to surpass the United States in "intelligent warfare" and achieve information superiority. These developments risk access and stability across the Indo-Pacific.
by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale
The New PLA Structure: From Information Warfare to "Intelligent Warfare"
In April 2024, China completed its largest military reorganization in nearly a decade, reaffirming the supremacy of informatics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the battlefield.
Strategic Reorganization and Technology
The reorganization saw the abolition of the Strategic Support Force (SSF) and the creation of the Information Support Force (ISF), a new service directly under the Central Military Commission. This move underscores that network information technology is the "most important variable" for improving combat capabilities.
The PLA's new structure is now composed of:
Four Armed Services:Â Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force.
Four Independent Branches:Â Military Aerospace Force, Cyber Force, Information Support Force, and Joint Logistic Support Force.
This strengthens Xi Jinping's direct control over strategic capabilities and emphasizes the ambition to master AI, quantum information, big data, and cloud computing, preparing the military for future "intelligent warfare," as outlined in China's 2019 National Defense White Paper.
The Space Threat and the "Kill Web"
US Space Command Commander, Stephen Whiting, has raised concerns about the alarming pace of Chinese space advancements. China has tripled the number of its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites in orbit, with an estimated total of about 350 satellites in the Indo-Pacific region.
Military Purpose:Â These satellites not only threaten US space assets with anti-space weapons but are also used to make the PLA's ground forces "more precise, more lethal, and with a wider range."
The Destruction Network:Â China is believed to have established a "Kill Web" over the Pacific Ocean, utilizing satellites to track targets thousands of kilometers away and precisely guide weapon platforms, including missile-armed submarines.
The "Thousand-Hand Guanyin": The PLA's C4ISR System
The Chinese Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) system, named "Thousand-Hand Guanyin," would be China's answer to integrated systems like the US JTACS.
System Structure and Functionality
The "Thousand-Hand Guanyin"Â system is a key modernization project for the PLA aimed at achieving "information superiority" on the battlefield:
Information Fusion:Â It integrates and processes massive amounts of data from various platforms (satellites, drones, AWACS aircraft, naval radars) to form a unified battlefield situation map.
Rapid Transmission:Â Using advanced communication technologies, it rapidly transmits real-time information to all weapon platforms.
Precise and Collaborative Command: It enables information sharing and collaborative operations among different weapon platforms, transforming traditional combat into a "networked, informatized confrontation."
It is estimated that China has deployed several thousand of these systems since 2008, significantly improving the PLA's battlefield awareness and command-and-control capabilities. The system's application allows for the effect of "enemy situation on our side, information sharing, and preemptive strike."
Suspicious Incidents: Air, Submarine, and the Drone Disparity
1. Confirmed Air Incidents
In 2025, the US Navy confirmed the loss of two embarked aircraft in quick succession in the South China Sea: an F/A-18F Super Hornet and an MH-60R Sea Hawk. Although official investigations are ongoing, their close temporal proximity in the context of operations in disputed waters fuels the hypothesis of complex external interference.
2. Unverified Orca Disappearance
The alleged loss of the Orca unmanned submarine (contractual value of $274.4 million), occurring in the Xisha Islands waters, is directly associated (according to Chinese OSINT sources) with the electromagnetic interference activity of the "Thousand-Hand Guanyin" system, raising suspicion of a potential interception or active neutralization.
3. The Drone Disparity: The Challenge of Quantity
Another critical threat is the drone production imbalance. China has reached an annual military drone production capacity approaching 12 million units, a number 24 times greater than the US production capacity. This massive quantitative advantage, combined with the flexibility and low cost of Chinese assets, grants Beijing a distinct edge in future asymmetric war of attrition.
Conclusion: The Indo-Pacific as the Technological Theater
The air incidents and the alleged submarine loss, combined with space advancement and mass drone production, demonstrate that China is implementing a holistic and aggressive strategy to challenge the regional order and enforce a prohibited area for US forces.
The United States and its Western allies reiterate their commitment to upholding international law and freedom of navigation. The defense of the principle of a free and open Indo-Pacific will be met with determination and a constant upgrade of technological means and industrial capabilities, to counteract the advance of China's "intelligent warfare."