China's Navy: Strategy of Denial and Technological Acceleration

Abstract: China's New Maritime Power – Submarine Threats and Force Projection

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is challenging U.S. naval hegemony in the Indo-Pacific. China is pursuing a "strategy of denial" through simultaneous advancements in three critical areas:

1. Silent Submarine Warfare: China's nuclear attack submarine (SSN) fleet is evolving toward extreme stealth. The Type 093B is reaching noise levels near the ocean background, potentially eroding U.S. surveillance capabilities. The potential revolution lies in the Type 098, which is speculated to use Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Propulsion for near-absolute stealth and theoretical speeds up to 150 knots.

2. Hypersonic Missile Threat: The introduction of the submarine-launched Eagle Strike-19 (YJ-19) hypersonic anti-ship missile poses an existential risk to U.S. carrier groups, thanks to its 1,500−2,000 km range and speeds between Mach 10 and 12.

3. Nuclear Aircraft Carrier Acceleration: China has started simultaneous construction of two nuclear aircraft carriers (alleged Type 004/005) displacing over 120,000 tons and equipped with four Electromagnetic Catapults (EMALS). China aims to deploy a nuclear carrier fleet at an accelerated pace (at least one per year), with the strategic goal of matching or surpassing the United States within 10-15 years.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

1. The Quantum Leap in Submarine Warfare

The most significant shift is the evolution of the stealth capabilities of China's nuclear attack submarines (SSNs), a fundamental factor in underwater warfare.

A. Hybrid Stealth and Numerical Increase (Type 093B)

The evolution has been dramatic:

• From Noise to Stealth: Older Type 091 submarines were notorious for excessive noise (150 decibels). The leap to the Type 093 (around 120 dB) and then to the Type 093B has reduced noise to around 110 decibels, approaching natural ocean background noise and rivaling improved Los Angeles-class submarines.

• Key Technologies: This achievement is credited to the adoption of pump-jet propulsion and, according to some sources, the potential use of a natural circulation reactor, which eliminates noisy cooling pumps.

• Impact on U.S. Surveillance: The stealth of the Type 093B makes it extremely difficult for U.S. ocean surveillance systems (SOSUS) and P-8A patrol aircraft to detect, eroding the U.S. monitoring advantage.

• Fleet Growth: China's SSN attack fleet is steadily increasing, from six in 2010 to a projected 12 units by 2025, contrasting with the aging U.S. Los Angeles-class submarines.

B. The Potential MHD Revolution (Type 098)

China is exploring a breakthrough technology: Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Propulsion for the presumed fourth-generation SSN, the Type 098.

• Absolute Stealth: MHD uses electromagnetic force to move water without propellers, eliminating the primary noise source and making the submarine a potential "ghost of the deep."

• Extreme Speeds: Theoretical projections indicate an MHD submarine could reach speeds up to 150 knots, far exceeding current platforms.

• Complementary Systems: Attention is also focused on Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs), such as the AJX002 (for smart mine laying) and the HSU100 (for ASW and mine hunting), which demonstrate a high level of combat readiness.

2. Hypersonic Missile Superiority

The introduction of new submarine-launched hypersonic weapons has drastically extended China's offensive reach, posing a significant threat to U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups.

• Eagle Strike-19 (YJ-19): This hypersonic anti-ship missile (AShM), launched from a 533mm torpedo tube, has a range of 1,500−2,000 km and travels at speeds between Mach 10 and 12.

• Invulnerability: Its extreme speed and "serpentine" maneuverability in the terminal phase make it extremely difficult to intercept with current missile defenses. Its range far exceeds the detection range of U.S. destroyer radars and search helicopters.

3. The Nuclear Aircraft Carrier Race

China is implementing a strategic acceleration to match the U.S. in maritime air power projection, investing in the large-scale construction of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.

A. Simultaneous Construction and Advanced Specifications

China has allegedly begun the simultaneous construction of two giant nuclear aircraft carriers (presumed Type 004 and Type 005) in the Dalian and Shanghai shipyards.

• Displacement: Over 120,000 tons, potentially making them the largest ever built.

• Propulsion: Nuclear (a first for the PLAN), guaranteeing unlimited range.

• Launch System: Both would be equipped with four Electromagnetic Catapults (EMALS), the same state-of-the-art system as the U.S. Ford-class.

• Construction Methods: The practice of building simultaneously in the north and south (using the mega-block method in Shanghai) aims to accelerate delivery times.

B. The New Embarked Air Wing

These carriers are designed to host a powerful, modern air wing:

• Composition: J-35 and the future J-50 fighters (both 5th generation), along with updated J-15T versions and KJ-600 AEW aircraft.

• Initial Advantage: The combination of Nuclear Power + EMALS + 5th-Generation Fighters positions these ships to directly compete with, or potentially surpass, the Ford-class from the outset.

C. The Goal of Numerical Superiority

• Projected Launch: The first two nuclear carriers may be launched by late 2026 and enter service after 2028.

• Delivery Rate: A construction rate of at least one nuclear carrier per year is projected once mass production is established.

• Projection: China's strategic goal is to match or surpass the United States in the number of aircraft carriers owned within 10-15 years, leveraging a manufacturing capacity estimated to be significantly greater than that of the U.S.

In summary, the PLAN's advancements are not merely incremental; they are aimed at a naval paradigm shift through the combination of revolutionary submarine stealth, advanced hypersonic firepower, and a massive production capacity for force projection.