Europe at a Crossroads: The Ukraine Crisis and a New "Suez Moment"

The Ukraine crisis is the nemesis of the pettiness of European politics, of its failure, and of its inexorable internal and international decline. Will "Old Europe" be "hanged on the tree of Ukraine"?

The debate on Europe's future and its role on the global stage is intensifying as the continent faces epochal challenges, particularly in relation to the conflict in Ukraine. An intriguing analysis published on Guancha.cn titled "Will 'Old Europe' be 'hanged on the tree of Ukraine'?" draws a provocative (but rather realistic) parallel between the current situation and the historic Suez Crisis of 1956, suggesting that Europe might be facing a new, more brutal, "Suez moment."

The Suez Crisis as a Precedent

In 1956, the Suez Crisis marked a turning point, revealing the decline of the global dominance of powers like Great Britain and France and the growing influence of the United States and the Soviet Union. According to author Ding Yichao, the current situation in Ukraine, especially with the uncertainty over future U.S. support, is exposing deep vulnerabilities and divisions within Europe, very similar to those of the past. The analysis suggests that the Trump administration could shift from being a partner, albeit a demanding one, to a more transactional and self-interested actor, expecting Europe to bear its own burdens. This would radically change the transatlantic alliance, whose roots lie in the Cold War.

The "Mathematics of War" and External Dependence

The article delves into the "mathematics of war" of the Ukrainian conflict, arguing that Ukraine's military actions are heavily conditioned by political will and a deep reliance on foreign aid. This would transform Ukraine, according to the author, more into an "investment project" for its "financiers" than a sovereign nation fighting for survival. This "project" status would compromise military effectiveness, leading to suboptimal battlefield outcomes and high casualties, as evidenced by the battles of Bakhmut and the Krynky bridgehead plan. A presumed decline in morale and high desertion rates among Ukrainian forces are also cited.

European Influence on Washington: A Vain Attempt?

The Chinese analysis also examines Europe's attempts to influence the Trump administration, describing them as a mix of flattery and commercial arguments. However, these approaches would largely fail because Trump would not be swayed by symbolic gestures or abstract values. Trump's disinterest in Ukraine is attributed to his belief that it's primarily a European problem and that Europe is "free-riding" on U.S. support.

An Uncertain Future for the Old Continent

In conclusion, the Guancha.cn article warns that Europe is once again facing a "Suez moment," but this time far more brutal than in 1956. If the first crisis forced Europe to acknowledge its diminished global role, this time it could signify a complete marginalization from the geopolitical stage. The shift of power towards the **Pacific**, coupled with Europe's military dependence on the United States and the decline of its manufacturing output, puts it in a precarious position. Influence, in this new context, seems to be gained more through practical interests than ideology. The author suggests that, in the short term, pushing Ukraine to surrender might be the least damaging option for Europe.