Is the shooting down of the Indian Rafale a turning point for China's air supremacy in the Indo-Pacific?

Abstract

Could the shooting down of the Indian Rafale by the Pakistani JF-17 Block III fighter equipped with the Chinese PL-15 missile represent the turning point for Chinese air supremacy in the Indo-Pacific?

Already during the India-Pakistan border clash in March 2025, four Pakistani JF-17 fighter jets shared information via data links and simulated shooting down two early warning aircraft and a refueling plane without the Indian military noticing.

Jointly developed by Pakistan and China, the JF-17 is a fourth-generation light multirole fighter. The jet has been used in previous clashes between Indian and Pakistani militaries and was confirmed to have shot down an Indian MiG-21 in 2019.

The Chinese-made KLJ-7A radar is the "real game changer" for the JF-17; it can detect fighter-sized targets at 170 km and track them at 120 km. It can simultaneously monitor 15 targets and hire four.

The Chinese missile PL-15 has three core technologies: the dual-pulse engine, an active phase-scan radar and the two-way data link.

In addition, the JF-17 equipped with four PL-15 missiles costs around $32 million, while the price of an Indian Rafale fighter jet exceeds $240 million. 

China's military ambitions don't stop there. The PL-15's modular design features a proprietary satellite guidance interface. In the future, with the help of relay guidance of drones, the range can easily exceed 400 kilometers. As former US Pacific Air Force Commander Carlisle warned in 2015: “The PL-15 will force our tankers and early warning aircraft to retreat 300 kilometers, which will amount to abolishing the US military's strategic advantage from 'ocean depth'.”

Here the technological gap is revealed. Just as the Stinger missile changed the rules of the war in Afghanistan in the 1990s, the PL-15 is reshaping the logic of air combat in South Asia: in the future the competition for air supremacy will no longer be a competition over the number of fighter jets, but a competition of missile range, data link and systems coordination. When the PL-15 was introduced in the internal bomb bay of the J-20 jet in 2015, the US Air Force changed the “2030 Air Combat Outline” overnight.

Autors: Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

In April 2025, the Pakistan Air Force released real combat footage of its JF-17 Block III fighter equipped with the Chinese PL-15 missile for the first time. This missile, known as the "South Asian Sky Sniper", directly targeted the Indian Su-30MKI fighter from a distance of 200 kilometers, forcing the latter to urgently drop bombs and evacuate the battlefield.

L’incident not only confirmed the range of the PL-15, but allowed everyone to see how its three main technologies (dual impulse engine, active phase-scanning radar and two-way data link) put the adversary in a desperate situation of "can't see, hide and resist".

The battle fought over the Indian and Pakistani skies in the last few hours has confirmed the superiority of the Pakistani air force over the Indian one.

At the moment, little is known about the air battle between India and Pakistan, but one thing is certain: Pakistan used the Chinese-made PL-15 active radar-guided air-to-air missile. So far, Pakistan has claimed to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, and multiple sources, including Indian officials, have pointed out that at least two fighter jets have crashed. Meanwhile, a French official confirmed that the Indian Air Force has lost its prized Rafale multi-role fighter aircraft. In any case, the clashes between the two nuclear-armed powers are the most intense in recent decades and the risk of a further deterioration of the situation is growing.

At the beginning of May, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) released another video showing how its fighter planes were equipped with long-range Chinese missiles.

The video arrived in the midst of rising tensions with India following the terrorist attack in Kashmir last April, which caused the death of 26 people. 

The three-minute video showed warplanes, including the JF-17 fighter, armed with Chinese-made PL-15 missiles, described as "the mighty punch of the PAF".

The PL-15, originally developed for the J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighter, is China's most advanced combat missile.

Although other weapons featured in the video were labeled as export versions, the PAF did not specify that this was also the case for the PL-15, suggesting that it may use the same version as the People's Liberation Army. If confirmed, this would be the first time a foreign military has been armed with that version, rather than the short-range export version.

However, some military analysts have also argued that Pakistan's main advantage would likely lie in the Chinese-made Active Electronically Scanning Array (AESA) radar system installed on the JF-17.

Jointly developed by Pakistan and China, the JF-17 is a fourth-generation light multirole fighter. The aircraft have been used in previous clashes between Indian and Pakistani militaries and were confirmed to have shot down an Indian MiG-21 in 2019.

The Chinese-made KLJ-7A radar is a 'real game-changer' for the JF-17; Situational awareness is the first priority in modern warfare.

The KLJ-7A radar can detect fighter-sized targets at 170 km and track them at 120 km. It can simultaneously monitor 15 targets and hire four.

Regard the Chinese missile used to shoot down the Indian Rafale, lThe PL-15's maximum range reaches 200 kilometers, far exceeding the European Meteor missile (150 kilometers) and the Russian-made R-77 (110 kilometers) currently in service with the Indian Air Force, and even 40 kilometers more than the US Army's main AIM-120D missile. 

This gap is equivalent to the ability of Pakistani fighters to launch missiles before the two armies even meet.

The detection range of the RBE-2 radar of the Indian Rafale fighter is only 130 kilometers, which means that when the PL-15 enters the attack range, the Indian pilots will not even have time to lock on to the target. 

What's even more lethal is that the PL-15 uses a dual-pulse solid rocket motor: the first stage motor accelerates the missile to Mach 4, and the second stage continues to provide power in the final stage, allowing the missile to maintain high-speed maneuverability in the final 30 kilometers, whereas traditional missiles have long been reduced to "unpowered iron rods." 

Actual combat data shows that the no-escape zone of the PL-15 reaches 70-80 kilometers, while that of the Indian Meteor missile is only 40 kilometers.

The rocket engines of traditional missiles can burn only once, while the PL-15's engine compartment is isolated into two combustion chambers. Once the first stage fuel is consumed, the second stage ignites automatically. This design allows the missile to save fuel in the middle phase of flight, but can suddenly accelerate in the final phase. 

According to test data from the Luoyang Air-to-Air Missile Research Institute, this technology increases the PL-15's effective range by 21 percent and maintains its terminal velocity at Mach 4-6, far exceeding the Mach 3.5 of the European Meteor missile.

The search system of the PL-15 is equipped with a miniature active phased array radar, whose detection accuracy is three times higher than that of a traditional mechanically scanned radar. It can track six targets simultaneously and actively lock on to two. Its radar beam can be focused into a "pencil shape", and even if the adversary releases disturbing aluminum strips, the true target can be identified via the Doppler effect. In a simulated engagement with the Egyptian Air Force in 2024, the PL-15E (export version) still achieved an 85% success rate in an electronic jamming environment, while the AIM-120C7 stopped at 62%.

The PL-15 can interact in real time with transport aircraft and early warning aircraft via data link. When the JF-17 Block III launches a missile, the ZDK-03 early warning aircraft in the rear can constantly update the target position and even command missiles launched by other fighters to launch a coordinated attack. This “A shoots, B leads” mode renders the S-400 air defense system the Indian Air Force relies on useless: 40 “Fierce Dragons” can fire 160 PL-15s at a time, far exceeding the processing capabilities of the S-400's 48 fire control channels.

Pakistan has taken the combination of PL-15 and JF-17 Block III to a new level. The 240 kilometer detection range of the KLJ-7A radar, added to the 200 kilometer range of the missile, forms a "detect and destroy" kill chain. During the March 2025 border conflict, four Pakistani JF-17 fighter jets shared information via data links and simulated shooting down two early warning aircraft and a refueling plane without the Indian military noticing.

Cost comparison also creates problems for India. A JF-17 equipped with four PL-15 missiles costs around $32 million, while the price of an Indian Rafale fighter jet exceeds $240 million. 

Although the export version of the PL-15, the PL-15E, limits its range to 145 kilometers, it is still a generation ahead of similarly priced missiles. Countries such as Egypt and Myanmar have already purchased large quantities, and even NATO member Turkey is evaluating its effectiveness. 

This "dimensionality reduction attack" has shaken Western weapons manufacturers: the unit price of the PL-15E is about 2 million dollars, which is only half of the European "Meteor" missile, but it is capable of neutralizing the current AIM-120 series of the US military.

China's military ambitions don't stop there. The PL-15's modular design features a proprietary satellite guidance interface. In the future, with the help of relay guidance of drones, the range can easily exceed 400 kilometers. As former US Pacific Air Force Commander Carlisle warned in 2015: “The PL-15 will force our tankers and early warning aircraft to retreat 300 kilometers, which will amount to abolishing the US military's strategic advantage from 'ocean depth'.”

India's only hope at the moment is to accelerate the deployment of the Russian-made R-37M missile, with a range of 300 kilometers. However, this ultra-long-range missile, designed specifically for the MiG-31, has compatibility issues with the Rafale fighter's fire control system. Furthermore, the bulky dimensions of the R-37M mean that the Rafale can carry a maximum of two missiles, while the JF-17 can easily carry four PL-15s.

Here the technological gap is fully revealed. Just as the Stinger missile changed the rules of the war in Afghanistan in the 1990s, the PL-15 is reshaping the logic of air combat in South Asia: in the future the competition for air supremacy will no longer be a competition over the number of fighter jets, but a competition of missile range, data link and systems coordination. When the PL-15 was introduced in the internal bomb bay of the J-20 jet in 2015, the US Air Force changed the “2030 Air Combat Outline” overnight.