The Future of Warfare: China's Military Bets on Intelligence and Drones

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has a clear vision for future wars: they'll be fought with artificial intelligence (AI) and unmanned systems. The goal is to radically transform the way warfare is conducted, making the entire "kill chain"—from detection to target elimination—faster and more effective than ever before.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

Drones and AI: The Battlefield Revolution

The key concept is "intelligentization" which means the comprehensive integration of AI and other advanced technologies into military operations. This implies that unmanned systems will become the primary force, supported by advanced information networks. Victory will increasingly depend on "intellectual power," with AI guiding every phase.

This shift is already underway and is comprehensively empowering the kill chain in every aspect:

• Wider and More Mobile Platforms: Unmanned systems can operate in extreme environments, from deep sea to outer space, and are becoming increasingly agile and fast. This allows them to reach previously inaccessible areas and maneuver in ways unimaginable for manned vehicles.

• Resilience and Coverage: The ability to deploy a large number of low-cost drones and robots increases the kill chain's survivability. They can create "swarms" of drones or "shark packs" of unmanned submarines, making it harder for the enemy to disable the entire system. Furthermore, more platforms mean broader coverage and increased redundancy, ensuring that even with some losses, the system can continue to function.

• Reduced Costs: Unmanned operations minimize human casualties and offer significant advantages in terms of production, operational, and maintenance costs compared to manned systems.

  
  

Speed and Decisions: The Heart of Victory

Time is a crucial factor in warfare, and AI is the key to accelerating every phase of the kill chain:

• Super-fast "OODA" Loop: AI allows for much faster observation, orientation, decision, and action, drastically reducing reaction time. This means detecting the enemy first, attacking first, and striking more effectively, seizing very brief windows of opportunity.

• Enhanced Decision-Making: AI is the "brain" connecting all links of the kill chain. It can process enormous amounts of heterogeneous data, integrating information from various sources, learning, and reasoning with unparalleled speed and precision. This leads to greater decision-making autonomy for unmanned systems, which can generate optimal action plans based on algorithms.

• Humans "Out of the Loop": The goal is to move from a model where humans are "in the loop" of decisions to one where they are "on the loop" (supervisors) or even "out of the loop" (allowing AI to autonomously manage certain operations). This drastically reduces reaction times and increases accuracy.

• Complexity for the Enemy: The use of intelligent drone swarms that maneuver rapidly can create a "fog of war" on the battlefield, making it extremely difficult for the enemy to understand true intentions and make effective decisions.

  
  

The Intelligent Network: The Backbone of the Future

The kill chain is essentially a networked combat system, and the intelligent information network on the battlefield is its foundation. Thanks to technologies like satellite internet, military networks are becoming high-bandwidth, low-latency, and ubiquitous. This allows for the rapid inclusion of unmanned platforms and their payloads as "resources" at any time, facilitating the construction of more flexible and efficient kill chains.

Essentially, the flow of information becomes the true engine of the kill chain, guiding and controlling the precise release of resources and firepower. The interaction between combat units becomes smoother, with "human participation" transforming into "algorithmic participation." This leads to a system that understands "those who are precise will perceive, and those who have the advantage will strike," with unprecedented adaptability and self-organization capabilities.

China is investing massively in this vision, aware that intelligent warfare and unmanned systems are the key to dominating future conflict scenarios.

Source China's People's Liberation Army's