The Geopolitics of "Controlled Attrition": How China Exploits the Polish Crisis to Reshape Eurasia

This analysis leverages OSINT (Open Source Intelligence), based on a cross-examination of official documents, transport data, Euro-Asian logistics reports, and specialist sources on the PRC's strategy, to decipher the profound geopolitical maneuver underway. This strategy aims to overcome China's traditional logistical and strategic vulnerability along maritime routes controlled by Western powers.

The crisis involving the closure of the Polish-Belarusian border in September 2025, following military tensions from the joint Russian-Belarusian "Zapad-2025" exercises and alleged Russian drone incursions, led to the blockage of hundreds of cargo trains. This incident provided undeniable proof of the systemic risk the West faces on its eastern flank.

China is actively redefining Eurasia as its power hub, developing land corridors that are not only economically efficient but also serve precise strategic goals: undermining sanctions, strengthening regional actors hostile to the West, and creating a network of logistical dependence with Beijing at its core. The current instability on Europe's eastern borders is not viewed by China as an obstacle, but as an opportunity to accelerate this geostrategic shift.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

The "Polish Problem": The Achilles' Heel of Western Logistics

The central node of China's strategy is the fragility of the "Slavic Line", the historical route of the China-Europe Express that transits through Poland, Belarus, and Russia. The September blockade highlighted the risk the West confronts on its eastern front.

The Paradox of Poland vs. Western Interests

Poland, a NATO bulwark on the eastern flank and a crucial support hub for Ukraine, is simultaneously the primary logistical bottleneck of the terrestrial Silk Road.

• Geopolitical Vulnerability: The Slavic Line is inherently fragile due to the historic and ongoing friction between Poland (Western Slavs/NATO) and the Russia-Belarus axis. Any political friction, such as a military exercise or a tariff dispute, can be immediately exploited by Moscow to create uncertainty and cost for European supply chains.

• The Dilemma of Profit: While Poland earns approximately $300–500 million annually in transit fees, the losses from the September blockade were significant enough to force a rapid border reopening, demonstrating that Chinese economic interest overrides security concerns on the NATO flank.

• China Exploits Instability: Beijing cynically capitalizes on this contradiction. The Polish crisis is not a hindrance but an accelerator for alternative routes, reducing the reliability of a corridor that passes through a key Western ally.

China's Responses: Bypassing NATO and Legitimizing Rivals

The "Polish problem" compels China to fund and promote two alternative corridors, both designed to reduce Western influence in Eurasia.

1. The Turan Line (Central Corridor): Supporting a Maverick NATO Member

The "Turan Line" bypasses Russia and Poland via the Caspian Sea, but its strategic pivot is Turkey.

• Critical Points Against the West: The route reinforces Pan-Turkism and the influence of Turkey, a NATO member that operates increasingly autonomously and is often antagonistic to Washington and Brussels' policies. Europe, while seeking to "free itself from Russian constraints" through this route (with investments like the $100 million from the EBRD in Kazakh railways), ultimately funds a logistical architecture that empowers geopolitical rivals and serves China's diversification strategy.

2. The Persian Line (Southern Corridor): Legitimizing Sanctioned Adversaries

The "Persian Line" (China → Southern Central Asia → Iran → Turkey) is the definitive alternative. It's the only one capable of completely circumventing Russian influence and, crucially, sustaining Iran.

• Maximum Anti-Western Implication: The linchpin of this route is Iran. China uses its economic power (via the BRI) to grant Tehran, which is subject to Western sanctions, a vital role as a Eurasian logistics hub. This not only undermines the effectiveness of sanctions but strengthens the China-Iran-Turkey axis, a direct counterweight to the containment policies of the United States and Israel.

• Diplomacy of Trade: Beijing has already demonstrated a desire to reshape the regional order by mediating the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, positioning itself as a peacemaker and challenging Washington's traditional security role in the Persian Gulf.

3. The Arctic Route (Northern Sea Route - NSR): The Sino-Russian Axis in the North

China actively supports Russian efforts to make the Northern Sea Route (NSR) navigable year-round, cutting transit times by 30% compared to Suez.

• Challenging Western Maritime Dominance: This cooperation consolidates the Beijing-Moscow axis in a new strategic domain, the Arctic, offering a further alternative to bypass maritime choke points controlled by the West (Suez, Malacca).

• Shutterstock

Conclusion: China as the Architect of Attrition

China's strategy is a clear attempt at strategic attrition against the West, exploiting the systemic weaknesses of NATO and the EU. The "Polish problem" is merely a symptom of a deeper vulnerability. Beijing avoids direct confrontation but operates on multiple levels to:

1. Impose Eurasian Dependence: Force Europe to link itself to a dense Asian logistics network where multiple countries (Kazakhstan, Turkey, Iran) compete for Chinese commercial favor.

2. Undermine Sanctions Efficacy: Sustain regimes like Iran through vital routes, neutralizing Western political pressure tools.

3. Reshape Spheres of Influence: Use infrastructure projects to empower regional actors seeking autonomy from Atlantic powers.

China is asserting itself as the architect of a new order in Eurasia, where Western influence is receding in favor of a multipolar system based on connectivity controlled by Beijing.