The Struggle for Global Logistics Autonomy: Chinese Power Projection (BRI and Civil-Military Fusion) and the Urgent Western Imperative

The strategic transformation of the logistics and foreign trade of the People's Republic of China (PRC) is driven by a growing awareness of geopolitical vulnerabilities inherent in traditional global supply chains. The central thesis is that, for Beijing, the efficiency and stability of trade routes are no longer merely economic optimization, but a National Security imperative, essential to sustaining its export-based economy and establishing a new global logistical order.

The sudden closure of the Polish-Belarusian border crossing at Malaszewicze in September 2025, which blocked the vital China-Europe rail corridor, served as a catalyst and a mirror for this awareness. It exposed the fragility of relying on land and sea corridors controlled or influenced by hegemonic powers. This crisis highlighted the cost of passivity: submission to the transport monopolies and the arbitrary pricing imposed during times of instability.

The reorganization of supply chains is not only about the need for self-sufficiency in raw materials and rare earths, but also about securing stable routes that act as true logistical pipelines. While China has been committed to these issues for years, it appears that Western countries have forgotten these crucial imperatives.

The focus is on China's dual strategic response, aimed at securing the "right to choose its own path" across Eurasia:

1. Land and Polar Autonomy: The accelerated development and integration of the China-Europe Railway Express and the Arctic Sea Route (Northeast Passage).

2. Maritime Infrastructural Hegemony: The systematic expansion of the Maritime Belt and Road (MSR) project. China's excellence in volume, connectivity (LSCI), and port efficiency is highlighted as supporting the political objective of transforming China into a "maritime power".

These assets and infrastructures are not simply logistical channels but the strategic tools through which China is reshaping the global industrial division of labor and projecting its influence in an increasingly uncertain world. This includes the integration of the potential promiscuous use (civil-military) of global port infrastructures and Beijing's strategy of building a "community of shared interests" with transit countries, distinguishing itself from historical failures (such as the German Baghdad Railway) and realizing Xi Jinping's vision: "History is our best teacher. The glory of the ancient Silk Road teaches us that geographical distances are not insurmountable.”

The history of vulnerability represents the crucial warning that the West as a whole (Europe and the United States) can no longer ignore.

History teaches us, incontrovertibly, that a significant portion of epochal disasters has been triggered by the arbitrary choices of authoritarian regimes. This historical cycle of vulnerability reinforces the crucial warning that the West, as a whole (Europe and the United States), can no longer ignore.

Faced with the ongoing global strategic redefinition – promoted by powers operating outside the multilateral order – the ability to proactively manage future crises and avoid irreversible decline depends entirely on our urgency in internalizing this historical lesson. The stakes are not just the balance of power, but the very destiny of liberal Western hegemony.

While China acts to create its own large-scale logistical pipelines, the West must realign its strategic imperatives. To avoid the final destiny of irreversible decline, it is imperative to develop a cohesive and proactive countermeasure that not only resists Beijing's rewriting of the international order but also ensures the maintenance of economic autonomy and logistical security for the Western bloc. China is writing its legend, moving from being 'chosen' to having the right to 'choose' its own path, and the strategic response of the West will determine the future global balance.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

1. The Crisis of Dependence and the Cost of Vulnerability

1.1 The Fragility of Traditional Rail and Sea Channels

The sudden closure of the Malaszewicze crossing (September 2025) blocked approximately 300 China-Europe freight trains, causing an immediate 15% increase in logistical costs and critical delays.

This vulnerability mirrors that of traditional maritime transport, exposed to:

• Geopolitical Risks (Red Sea): Houthi attacks forcing circumnavigation of the Cape of Good Hope.

• Monopolies and Price Determination: The oligopoly of maritime giants imposed arbitrary rate hikes (up to eight times).

  
  

2. The Shift to Strategic Autonomy: New Routes for the "Right to Choose"

China is implementing a fundamental change to secure the "right to choose its own path", neutralizing the power of constraint held by hegemonic actors.

2.1 The Rail Axis: China-Europe Railway Express

The freight train has become a price stabilization tool and a guarantee of punctuality.

• Economic/Strategic Advantage: It acted as a brake during the Red Sea crisis of 2025, offering the "Europe Express" at $12,000, directly curbing the arbitrary pricing of maritime giants and establishing the "power of price determination".

• Supply Chain Security: Rapid and stable logistics support the Just-In-Time (JIT) production model of European car manufacturers, crucial for supply chain resilience.

  
  

2.2 The Maritime Axis: The Arctic Route (Northeast Passage)

The Arctic Route is the shortest sea route, offering an unprecedented time advantage and a strategically controlled channel thanks to nuclear-powered icebreaker technology.

3. The Maritime Belt and Road (MSR) and Civil-Military Fusion (CMF)

China's maritime expansion is not only about commercial efficiency but is intrinsically linked to Xi Jinping's Civil-Military Fusion (CMF) strategy, where the accumulation of overseas interests is directly correlated with the projection of force.

3.1 The Legal Basis of Civil-Military Fusion

Civil-Military Fusion (CMF) is a guiding principle enshrined in various laws and five-year plans, stipulating that civilian infrastructure must be built for conversion or use for military purposes:

• National Defense Mobilization Law (2010): States that civilian infrastructure projects "closely related to national defense must meet national defense requirements and possess their functions" to be handed over for military use when necessary.

• Militarization of Civilian Vessels: The "Technical Rules for the Implementation of National Defense Requirements for Newly Built Civilian Ships" (June 2015) impose standards for the rapid conversion to military use of five types of vessels.

  
  

3.2 The People's Liberation Army (PLA) as Strategic Rearguard

The extension of overseas investment interests, through the BRI, requires military force support to keep pace with economic expansion, as "where national interests expand, military force support must follow":

• Projection Mandate: The Defense White Paper of 2019 describes operations to protect overseas interests as included in the PLA's missions.

• Legal Update (2020): The National Defense Law was revised to authorize the PLA to “mobilize its forces” and “resolve differences with the use of force” for the “safeguarding of China's interests abroad”.

• Projection Tools: Companies like COSCO and the use of irregular Private Security Companies (PSCs).

This marks the beginning of the "third phase of the Belt and Road": the military defense of Beijing's overseas interests, with the ultimate goal of expanding its governance and promoting a Sinocentric global vision.

4. The Creation of "Communities of Shared Interests" and the Imperative of Stable Routes

China has learned a fundamental lesson from history: the importance of transforming transit countries into stable economic allies and securing unassailable routes—a strategy the West seems to have underestimated.

4.1 The Chinese Logistical Pipeline Strategy

For China, resilience is not just a matter of self-supply of critical resources (raw materials and rare earths), but also the guarantee of stable routes that act as logistical pipelines. This strategic approach is visible in contrast to the failure of the German "Baghdad Railway":

• The Success of the Chinese "Symbiotic Relationship": China builds a "symbiotic relationship that cannot be easily broken" with transit countries (such as Russia and Kazakhstan) through shared benefits and tangible advantages.

• Strategic Advantage: Transit countries transform from "passengers on the route" into "communities of shared interests". This solidity ensures that the new routes (rail and Arctic) are not subject to chokepoints or external blackmail, transforming them into vital, protected, and low-cost arteries, essential for Chinese manufacturing competitiveness.

  
  

Conclusion: The Urgency of the Western Strategic Response

The China-Europe Railway Express and the Arctic Sea Route, reinforced by the commitment to Civil-Military Fusion for the protection of overseas interests, are the strategic tools that enable China to exert the "power of price determination" and consolidate its position as the hub of the global supply chain.

The analysis of these phenomena from a strategic standpoint is fundamental for the West.

The fatum of great historical disasters, often attributable to autocratic decisions, is the supreme lesson that the West must assimilate to counteract global strategic redefinition. The inertia in the face of this warning will condemn Europe and the United States to a final and inexorable decline.

While China acts to create its own large-scale logistical pipelines, the West must realign its strategic imperatives. To avoid the final destiny of irreversible decline, it is imperative to develop a cohesive and proactive countermeasure that not only resists Beijing's rewriting of the international order but also ensures the maintenance of economic autonomy and logistical security for the Western bloc. China is writing its legend, moving from being 'chosen' to having the right to 'choose' its own path, and the strategic response of the West will determine the future global balance.