THE HORIZON OF POWER: THE TWILIGHT OF LAW AND THE RISE OF TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION – ANALYSIS OF THE CHINESE MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGIC REPORT (LATE 2025)

The "Great Transition" Toward the Order of Force

The world approaching 2026 is no longer the one described by the liberal treaties of the last century. We are in the midst of what analysts call the "Great Transition": an era where international law gives way to Realpolitik, and where stability is no longer guaranteed by consensus, but by the balance of technological terror. The era of diplomacy is suspended; survival belongs to those who can master operational fluidity in a world where force is the only recognized language.

The international military and security landscape has undergone profound changes by late 2025: the role of traditional security architectures has weakened, new security mechanisms struggle to be implemented, and regional conflicts now exhibit characteristics of "multi-point epidemics," interconnection, and continuous escalation. The Liberal International Order, once guaranteed by the unchallenged superiority of the United States, is fracturing under the weight of a record federal debt of $38 trillion and the rise of multipolar powers determined to redraw the boundaries of global influence. In this scenario, conflicts are no longer isolated events but "systemic epidemics."

The Extrema Ratio analysis of the Year-End Strategic Report (December 29 and 30, 2025) from the Chinese Ministry of National Defense (MND) reveals a picture of extreme complexity: strength no longer resides solely in mass, but in the ability to vanish and strike from a thousand different directions, in a world where multipolar coexistence is inherently unstable. Under the Order of Force, legitimacy is dictated exclusively by the capacity for technological and military projection.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

I. THE INTERNATIONAL PANORAMA ACCORDING TO THE MND REPORT: Fragmentation and New Actors

The Chinese MND report emphasizes how 2025 marked the definitive transition from "unipolar dominance" to "multipolar coexistence." This struggle between rising powers and the current hegemony creates fundamental contradictions, highlighting the fragmentation of power structures.

• United States: The MND indicates a relative decline in U.S. power; the high costs of maintaining hegemony have pushed Washington to transform into an aggressive "regional intervener." The federal debt exceeding $38 trillion makes the old model of global dominance unsustainable.

• Russia: Despite the stalemate in the Ukraine conflict (now in its fourth year) and sanctions, Moscow maintains its strategic deterrence capabilities and seeks new logistical axes.

• Europe: While making progress in defensive autonomy, it struggles to break free from dependence on the United States, remaining trapped in a trans-atlantic crisis of confidence.

• Emerging Powers: Countries like Brazil are assuming an increasingly assertive role, collectively driving the global power structure toward multipolarity.

II. ASIA-PACIFIC ANALYSIS: A Theater of Unprecedented Risks

For the Chinese MND, the Asia-Pacific is a theater of extreme volatility, where U.S.-led military activism attempts to shape the rules through technological advantages and alliances.

• "Record" Exercises: The Western bloc uses realistic exercises as pressure. The "Forces Return to the Pacific" exercise deployed approximately 300 aircraft across over 50 locations, validating the "Agile Combat Employment" (ACE) concept.

• Forward Deterrence and "Justice Mission 2025": The U.S. is accelerating the deployment of multi-domain task forces and coastal regiments equipped with anti-ship missiles and drones. Of particular note is the activation of the Typhon missile system in the Philippines and Australia. In response, China tested the "intelligentized" naval blockade and the full operational capability of DF-27 hypersonic missiles—the "carrier killers"—during the Justice Mission (Dec 29).

• The "USA + X" Alliance Network: Beijing views with suspicion the "USA-Japan + X" model, aimed at integrating intelligence and armed forces into a "single operational theater" via the JADC2 (Joint All-Domain Command and Control) system.

III. INTERCONNECTION OF CONFLICTS AND INSTABILITY: Beijing's Vision

According to the Chinese perspective, the flashpoints of 2025 demonstrate a mutual connection that tests global management:

1. Middle East: Culminated in June 2025 with operations Rising Lion (Israel) and Midnight Hammer (USA), which severely damaged Iranian nuclear facilities.

2. Southeast Asia: Risk remains high due to the actions of countries like the Philippines in disputed waters, under U.S. pressure.

3. Northeast and South Asia: In April, the terrorist attack in Pahargham (Kashmir) ignited India-Pakistan tensions. In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took "dangerous" steps by openly discussing nuclear weapons and preemptive strike capabilities.

4. Persistent Conflicts: Clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and the prolonged stalemate of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

IV. THE WESTERN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE: Agile Logistics and "ACE" Dispersion

The USA-Japan bloc has responded to the Chinese narrative with tactical fluidity:

• ACE Strategy (Agile Combat Employment): Instead of large, vulnerable bases, the U.S. has established a network of over 50 mobile micro-bases (austere strips, civilian ports, and atolls) across the Philippines, Australia, and Pacific islands.

• "Push-Pull" Logistics: Through pre-positioned platforms and autonomous vessels, these bases are resupplied intermittently, making it impossible for Chinese satellites to fix a certain target for F-22 and F-35 aircraft.

• Nuclear Sharing: Japan has formally opened a desk for Nuclear Sharing with the U.S., breaking decades-old taboos to ensure a credible atomic deterrence.

V. TECHNOLOGY AND SPENDING: The Militarization of Artificial Intelligence (MND Report 2025)

According to official data and analysis contained in the 2025 Chinese Ministry of National Defense Report, global military spending exceeded $2.7 trillion in 2024 and continued its upward trajectory in 2025. The report specifies the following pillars of technological development:

• AI Integration: The Ministry emphasizes how the militarization of artificial intelligence has moved from the proof-of-concept phase to large-scale implementation, becoming the heart of technological competition and deep integration into national operational processes.

• Unmanned Warfare: The report highlights the rapid growth of unmanned combat forces. Drone swarms have been widely used to launch simultaneous concentrated attacks against sensitive targets, redefining the battlefield landscape.

• Space and Hypersonic Dominance: The MND document notes the acceleration of space militarization through low-earth orbit constellations and anti-satellite weapons. Hypersonic weapons have entered the operational deployment phase, potentially upsetting the balance of traditional strategic deterrence.

• Directed Energy: Large-scale application of directed energy weapons (lasers and microwaves) is indicated as a fundamental tool for countering drones and cruise missiles.

ANALYTICAL CONCLUSIONS: The Western Challenge of 2026

2025 closes with a doctrinal fracture between the Chinese vision of mass and the Western vision of digital fluidity.

Feature	Chinese Vision (Justice Mission 2025)	Western Vision (Forces Return to Pacific)
Logistics	Massive and centralized blockade.	ACE: Network of dispersed and mobile micro-bases.
Technology	Swarm drones for saturation.	Replicator 2.0: Autonomous systems and JADC2.
Command	Hierarchical and top-down.	Integrated: Real-time shared digital command.

Key Points for Western Intelligence (Extrema Ratio):

1. Resilience vs. Mass: U.S. and Japanese projection capability has become elusive through ACE dispersion.

2. The Weight of Debt: U.S. financial instability remains the critical variable that Beijing intends to exploit.

3. Alliance Unity: The stability of 2026 will depend on the cohesion of the "USA + X" framework.

The era of diplomacy is suspended; survival belongs to those who can master operational fluidity in a world where force is the only recognized language.