BEIJING, OCTOBER 28, 2025: THE NEXT FIVE YEARS WILL BE A REAL “WAR”

The Formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030): The Inevitable Merger of Security and Development in Xi Jinping's Imperial Mandate

The global geopolitical landscape has been unequivocally redefined by the outcomes of the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which concluded in Beijing in October 2025. The immediate context is marked by the public release today, October 28, 2025, of the two documents that constitute the ideological and practical foundation for China in the next cycle of global competition. These crucial texts are the Proposal of the CPC Central Committee on the Formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2026-2030), adopted on October 23, and the subsequent Explanation on the Proposal provided by General Secretary Xi Jinping. These documents are not mere statements of economic intent; they represent the explicit strategic blueprint that elevates systemic competition and security as unshakeable pillars of state doctrine for the next five years, guiding China's transition toward fundamental socialist modernization by 2035.

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Xi Jinping's Explanation: The New Historical Phase and the Imperative of Struggle

Xi Jinping's Explanation on the Proposal is particularly relevant, as it provides the doctrinal context and the authentic political interpretation of the principles that must inform the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan. The General Secretary has clarified that the country has definitively moved past the strategic phase of caution—Deng Xiaoping’s dictum “Hide our capabilities and bide our time” (韬光养晦 - taoguang yanghui)—to enter a “historical phase for concretely promoting common prosperity.” This goal, which Xi defines as the fundamental requirement of socialism and a key feature of Chinese-style modernization, is the ideological justification for the current revisionist assertiveness.

Xi Jinping stressed that the successful study and formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan is of “great importance for promoting healthy economic and social development” and for “laying a solid foundation for the fundamental realization of socialist modernization by 2035”. This connects the 2026-2030 quinquennium to a precise political and temporal imperative, making the 15th FYP an unavoidable “link between the preceding and the following” (承前启后 - chengqian qihou) in a path that allows for no deviation.

The element of greatest geopolitical tension lies within the martial rhetoric. The Explanation and the Proposal call on the Party and the Nation to “maintain strategic resolve, strengthen confidence in victory, dare to struggle, and be skilled in struggle” (敢于斗争、善于斗争), preparing to face “great tests of stormy winds and even breaking waves” (风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪). This emphasis on "struggle" confirms that the CPC has fully internalized the systemic conflict with the West, perceiving it as a structural and non-transient condition. China, which now boasts a GDP exceeding $18 trillion and has seen its foreign trade volume grow nearly twelvefold since joining the WTO, is now determined to use its economic and technological strength as a geostrategic weapon.

The Central Committee's Proposal: Development and Security as an Indissoluble Duo

The Proposal of the CPC Central Committee, adopted at the Plenum and published today, stipulates that the formulation of the plan must consider a context in which “strategic opportunities and risks and challenges coexist,” with an increase in “uncertain factors”.

The doctrinal response to this scenario is the core principle of the “coordination between development and security” (发展和安全), the meaning of which extends far beyond mere border protection. This principle, elevated to an absolute precondition for economic growth, implies that every aspect of economic and social life—from the semiconductor supply chain to financial stability, from food security to technological innovation—must be subordinate and functional to the security of the State and the Party. This holistic approach to national security is the key to understanding all the pillars of the next five-year plan.

China utilizes its economic and financial strength, built in part through aggressive practices that deviate from global norms, as a geopolitical warfare tool.

THE PROPOSAL FOR THE FIFTEENTH PLAN: THE PILLARS OF STRATEGIC SUPREMACY (2026-2030)

The Proposal for the 15th FYP formalizes Beijing's strategic objectives in a project aimed at guaranteeing self-sufficiency and global dominance through key pillars dictated by Xi Jinping's security imperative.

The Technological Imperative: Autarky, "New Productive Forces," and Global Standards

Technological security is the beating heart of the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, as the CPC believes that technological dependence is the country's only true strategic vulnerability.

The Proposal elevates the "development of new productive forces" (新质生产力 - xin zhi shengchanli) to an absolute priority. This concept aims for a structural qualitative transformation of the growth model, focused on cutting-edge technologies like AI, quantum computing, and 6G, which must ensure technological supremacy and leadership in imposing global standards (the unofficial strategy dubbed "China Standards 2035").

To achieve this goal, the objective of achieving "high-level technological self-reliance and strength" (高水平科技自立自强) is accelerated. The plan is a mandate to overcome dependence on advanced semiconductors, operating software, precision machinery, and chip production equipment, transforming the country from a global workshop to a "dominant supplier" of key components. This is coupled with the strategy of strengthening control over critical raw materials; the strategic plan aims to refine the “export control policy” for rare earths, gallium, germanium, and other strategic minerals. China leverages its (near) monopoly in the production and processing of these metals, exerting direct geoeconomic leverage over dependent countries.

Economy and Finance: Anti-Sanctions Fortress and Financial Warfare

The Proposal solidifies the “Dual Circulation” (双循环) strategy to reduce sensitivity to external fluctuations and build a parallel financial system immune to Western pressures.

The fundamental principle is the consolidation of the “powerful domestic market,” leveraging the “advantage of the super-sized market” (超大规模市场优势) to absorb production and reduce dependence on foreign trade, especially in view of possible economic friction.

China is intensifying financial warfare against the dominance of the dollar. The aggressive push to strengthen the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and the introduction of the digital currency e-CNY are economic warfare measures aimed at undermining dollar dominance and making the Chinese system immune to future SWIFT-type sanctions. The global promotion of CIPS and the e-CNY is openly viewed as a “service to the national strategy” to protect and facilitate trade with the Global South and Russia. Furthermore, resolving internal “systemic risks,” such as local government debt and real estate market stabilization, is considered crucial to guaranteeing the next cycle of “accelerated growth.”

Military Security, Unification, and Global Projection

1. Taiwan Objective: The Great Cause of Unification The Proposal explicitly includes the objective of “promoting the peaceful development of relations across the Strait and advancing the great cause of the reunification of the motherland”. The inclusion of this goal in the FYP formulation documents confirms that "reunification" is a strategic objective with a political deadline that elevates geopolitical risk in the 2026-2030 period.

2. Accelerated Military Modernization The plan commits the CPC to achieving the PLA's modernization goals by the centenary of its founding, accelerating the integration of “mechanization, informatization, and artificial intelligence.” Modernization aims to develop the “strategic capability to defend sovereignty, security, and development interests” in a global scenario.

3. Power Projection and Alliances The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is defined as an essential geostrategic tool for geopolitical expansion. The 15th FYP accelerates the high-quality development of the BRI, using it to expand its influence (for example, through the Sino-Russian axis for the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR)) and to establish a dual-use global logistics network. The Proposal commits China to promoting an “equitable and orderly multipolarity” and to “resolutely oppose acts of hegemony, domination, and bullying,” rhetoric aimed at delegitimizing the US-led international order.

Internal Control and the Digital Totalitarian Governance Model

Internal security is the foundation of external security, and Beijing's “Digital Totalitarian Governance Model” is being refined in the formulation of the 15th FYP.

The goal of “taking solid steps toward common prosperity for all the people” is a mechanism for consolidating the CPC’s power, disciplining capital, and redirecting wealth toward strategic sectors controlled by the State.

Concurrently, the plan aims to build the “most extensive and advanced network infrastructure” in the world and ensure “information sovereignty.” China’s leadership in technologies like 5G, the Internet of Things (IoT), and Smart Cities is a domestic “digital authoritarianism” tool that is being exported globally. National intelligence and data security laws mandate obligatory cooperation from enterprises and citizens with state security organs, transforming Chinese companies into vehicles for the acquisition of sensitive data abroad.

THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT: THE STRATEGY OF LIMINAL WARFARE

The formulation of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan is the operational translation of a strategy of total competition that systematically operates below the threshold of conventional armed conflict: "Liminal Warfare."

This strategy is based on the non-military, yet equally coercive, use of state power instruments, particularly through three main vectors that will be intensified in the 2026-2030 period:

1. Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) as a Hybrid Warfare Tool The MCF strategy is a set of state-guided programs that instrumentalize all levers of power—commercial, technological, industrial—to strengthen the PLA and the CPC leadership. BRI infrastructure (ports, submarine cables, data centers) become logistical support and intelligence platforms for the PLA, extending the country's power projection globally.

2. Data Dominance and Digital Coercion The CPC leverages its leadership in 5G, IoT, and Smart Cities to consolidate its “Digital Totalitarian Governance Model.” Chinese laws mandate obligatory cooperation from enterprises and citizens with state security organs, transforming Chinese companies into vehicles for the acquisition of sensitive data abroad.

3. Total Economic Struggle China exploits overcapacity in production, coercive technology acquisition, and control over strategic raw materials as weapons to destroy competition and create dependencies. The CPC, through “Dual Circulation,” minimizes its external dependence while increasing the world's dependence on the PRC.

CONCLUSION: GEOPOLITICAL SCENARIO AND CHALLENGES TO THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER

The formulation of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan, guided by the Proposal of the CPC and the Explanation by Xi Jinping, confirms that China has embarked on an irreversible path of total competition. The country has converted Western decoupling efforts into its internal strategy of forced autarky, internalizing the conflict and preparing for the strategic struggle.

The geopolitical scenario for the 2026-2030 period will be characterized by a multi-level escalation:

1. Technological Crisis and Standards The CPC, guided by the principle of xin zhi shengchanli (New Productive Forces), will use massive state investments to increasingly dictate global standards, placing world companies before the dilemma of adopting Chinese technologies (with security implications) or risking exclusion from crucial markets.

2. Elevated Taiwan Risk The explicit inclusion of “reunification” in the Proposal for the FYP increases the probability of a forced crisis in the Strait.

3. Financial and Geopolitical Polarization The push toward CIPS and the e-CNY, combined with the Sino-Russian alliance and leadership of the Global South, will accelerate the fragmentation of the world into distinct blocs.

The Chinese Imperial Mandate of the 21st Century, based on economic strength, hybrid military projection, and digital totalitarian control, represents the defining strategic challenge to the international order. The analysis of Xi Jinping's Declaration and the CPC's Proposal leaves no room for alternative interpretations: China is proceeding with total determination toward its goal of "global power" and the affirmation of a Sinocentric world order by 2049.