Crypto-Analytical Threat: China's Quantum Advancement and the Challenge for Western Intelligence - Analysis
- Gabriele Iuvinale
- 25 giu 2025
- Tempo di lettura: 12 min
Key points
China's Quantum Rise and Crypto-Analytical Threat: China is making rapid progress in quantum computing, with the potential to develop a machine capable of neutralizing current public-key cryptography, thereby threatening global security of sensitive data and critical infrastructure.
Denis Mandich's "White Swan" Warning: Intelligence experts, such as Denis Mandich, warn that a cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer is not an unpredictable "Black Swan" event, but an inevitable "White Swan" outcome, underscoring the urgency of preparing for a widely anticipated event.
"Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" Strategy: China is actively collecting and storing vast amounts of encrypted data today ("Harvest Now") with the intent to decrypt it in the future ("Decrypt Later") once full quantum capability is achieved. This poses a retroactive threat to confidentiality.
Pervasive Economic Espionage: Intellectual property theft and state-sponsored cyber espionage are key tools Beijing uses to accelerate its technological advancements, including in the quantum field, gaining an illicit competitive advantage on a global scale.
Battle for Cryptographic Standards: China is pursuing an independent path for post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards, driven by distrust of potential "backdoors" in U.S. standards and a desire for technological self-sufficiency. This risks fragmentation of global security standards.
U.S. Strategic Response: The U.S. is investing heavily in PQC algorithm development through NIST and fostering a robust quantum ecosystem. However, the transition is complex and requires continuous collaboration and a profound overhaul of security architectures.
Systemic Implications: The stakes involve economic sovereignty, national security, and trust in the global digital fabric. This demands that open societies balance innovation with the imperative to protect against multifaceted threats.
Agencies and national security analysts in the United States are monitoring with increasing apprehension the rapid and discreet progress of the People's Republic of China in the field of quantum computing. Beijing has invested massively, achieving significant merits and a leading position in this crucial sector, indicating a potential surpassing of American technological developments. The most critical implication of this rise is the potential development of a "cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer", a theoretical machine capable of neutralizing and rendering obsolete public-key cryptography currently in use worldwide. This scenario would expose sensitive data, classified communications, and critical systems to unprecedented risks, representing the primary threat to global security infrastructure and data protection protocols. This Chinese advance, a result of both genuine scientific and engineering excellence and pervasive economic espionage and intellectual property theft, necessitates an urgent evaluation of countermeasures.
The gravity of this situation was recently amplified by the testimony of Denis Mandich, a veteran of the U.S. intelligence community and current Chief Technology Officer at Qrypt, before lawmakers. His analysis, titled "The White Swan Imperative: Navigating the Quantum Threat with Strategic Foresight," outlines a critical and urgent perspective: Mandich argues that a quantum computer capable of deciphering encryption is not an unforeseeable event but a "White Swan" – a widely anticipated outcome – and warns that China is implementing a "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" strategy, massively collecting encrypted data today to decrypt it in the future thanks to quantum advancements obtained partly through pervasive espionage. His testimony re-positions the danger from an unpredictable event to an inevitable one, closely linking it to established espionage tactics.
Mandich explicitly connected Chinese quantum progress to persistent intellectual property theft. He stated that, according to intelligence information in his possession, "all U.S. companies have been subjected to technological theft or espionage by Beijing." This does not necessarily imply a total compromise of every single company, but indicates a pervasiveness and persistence of espionage campaigns that have impacted a vast spectrum of the American private sector. Mandich further highlighted how, in many cases, Chinese employees with access to proprietary information would work remotely directly for Chinese intelligence agencies, rather than in the private sector, underscoring an internally fueled state threat.
Compounding the concern is the extreme level of secrecy surrounding China's quantum efforts. Mandich noted a massive investment in training tens of thousands of physicists in Anhui Province, a clear indication of a long-term strategic commitment. However, most information related to these projects and the companies involved remains strictly confidential. China's current silence, in stark contrast to greater transparency in the past, is interpreted as a signal that Beijing has no incentive to disclose its successes if it has already developed a machine capable of breaking current encryption.
The concern over a potential Chinese lead is also shared by other experts. Professor Brenda Rubenstein of Brown University expressed alarm over the lack of information from the Chinese side, contrasted with the culture of open sharing that, while conducive to innovation in the West, can also expose vulnerabilities. Mandich concluded by evoking a recurring historical pattern in technology sectors, where often a "single dominant winner" emerges (like Google in search or Amazon in e-commerce). The fear is that the same scenario could materialize in quantum computing, and that the lead could be established by a Chinese entity, not a U.S. one.
Understanding the threat: the quantum computer and why it's dangerous
To grasp the severity of the situation with China, it's fundamental to understand what a quantum computer is and why its existence, especially with crypto-analytical capabilities, could disrupt global security.
What is a quantum computer? A leap into the future of computing
A traditional computer works with "bits," which are like switches that can be either on (1) or off (0). A quantum computer, however, operates with qubits. A qubit is not limited to a binary state; it can exist in many states simultaneously, or even in a combination of multiple states. This capability is called superposition.
Furthermore, qubits can be "entangled" with each other, a phenomenon known as entanglement. This means that the state of one qubit instantaneously influences that of another, regardless of distance. This incredible property allows quantum computers to solve complex problems in ways that would be impossible for current computers or would take prohibitive amounts of time, such as billions of years. They are particularly effective at searching for solutions across vast datasets and simulating complex physical systems at a molecular level.
Why is a Chinese quantum computer a threat to national security?
The real threat of a Chinese quantum computer lies in its ability to break public-key cryptography, which protects almost everything done online and offline. The security systems used today – from protected bank transactions (when "HTTPS" is seen in one's browser) to secure emails, from VPNs to state secrets – rely on mathematical problems that are extremely difficult for classical computers to solve.
Two of the most common universally employed cryptographic algorithms are:
RSA (Rivest-Shamir-Adleman): Its security is based on the computational difficulty of factoring very large prime numbers.
ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography): Its robustness is based on another mathematical problem, called the discrete logarithm problem on elliptic curves.
A sufficiently advanced quantum computer, using a specific algorithm called Shor's algorithm, would be able to solve these mathematical problems in a significantly reduced time. This would render currently considered unbreakable cryptographic defenses obsolete overnight. The consequences for national and global security would be devastating:
Compromise of confidential information: Classified documents, secret military plans, intelligence information, and confidential diplomatic communications, currently protected, could be intercepted and deciphered.
Global financial instability: Banking sectors, financial markets, and payment systems inherently depend on cryptography. Its breach could lead to large-scale fraud, systemic disruptions, and a loss of trust in the entire digital economy.
Vulnerability of critical infrastructure: Electrical grids, air traffic control systems, emergency communications, and other vital infrastructure are protected by cryptography. A quantum attack could paralyze these networks, causing malfunctions and potential physical damage.
Massive intellectual property theft: Trade secrets, patents, research, and development data – any proprietary information would be exposed, granting an unprecedented strategic competitive advantage to whoever possesses such quantum capability.
Current quantum development in China: a detailed overview
China has made quantum computing development a national strategic priority, investing enormous sums and focusing on building a complete ecosystem, from basic research to practical applications. In addition to quantum computing, Beijing is also making significant progress in other key areas of quantum technology, such as quantum sensors (with military applications for stealth detection and GPS-independent navigation) and quantum communication (aimed at creating intrinsically secure and unhackable networks).
Massive investments and centers of excellence: The Chinese government has allocated billions of dollars to this sector. One example is the National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences in Hefei, Anhui Province, which ranks as one of the largest quantum research centers globally. Leading academic institutions like the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences are at the forefront of these research efforts.
Significant scientific achievements:
Jiuzhang (photonic computers): In 2020, Professor Pan Jianwei's team at USTC announced "Jiuzhang," a photonic-based quantum computer. This system demonstrated "quantum supremacy" (or "quantum advantage") on a specific boson sampling task, completing a calculation that would have taken billions of years for the fastest supercomputers. Subsequently, improved versions like Jiuzhang 2.0 and 3.0 were released, further extending capacity to 255 photons, enhancing computational advantage.
Zuchongzhi (superconducting computers): In 2021, the same team unveiled "Zuchongzhi," a superconducting quantum processor with 66 qubits, which also demonstrated quantum supremacy. The subsequent version, Zuchongzhi 2.0, maintained 66 functional qubits.
Origin Wukong: In January 2024, the Origin Quantum laboratory launched "Origin Wukong," a superconducting quantum computer with 72 operational qubits (out of a total of 130). While claiming quantum supremacy for general calculations is still under development, its stable operation and public accessibility (via a cloud platform) represent a significant step towards commercialization and practical applications.
Tianji 4.0: More recent reports suggest further progress in superconducting qubits, with the "Tianji 4.0" prototype reportedly exceeding 500 qubits. Although the number of qubits is not the sole metric for quantum computer power (qubit quality and connectivity are also crucial), such a large number indicates remarkable ambition and development pace.
Applications and standardization: China is actively exploring the practical applications of quantum computing in areas like drug discovery, advanced materials science, and artificial intelligence, concurrently working intensively on the standardization of quantum technologies.
This rapid progression, combined with the aforementioned secrecy and extensive use of economic espionage, fuels global concerns regarding the potential for a Chinese lead in crypto-analytical capability.
The critical role of Chinese economic espionage in quantum acceleration
As emphasized by Denis Mandich, Chinese intellectual property theft is a key factor enabling the growth of its quantum industry. This often occurs through state-sponsored cyber espionage, where coordinated and government-backed cyber intrusions allow Chinese entities to access proprietary information, trade secrets, and research data from foreign companies and institutions. While not all cyber espionage cases are directly linked to quantum, this overall strategy of illicit technological acquisition accelerates China's general development, including its quantum program.
An example of this pervasive strategy is the Cloud Hopper campaign, revealed in 2018, where Chinese hackers breached managed service providers (MSPs) to access data from numerous global clients. These intrusions enable the theft of science and technology not only for immediate commercial gain but also to gather intelligence useful for potential future attacks against target countries' military, government, and commercial technical systems.
The economic cost of these activities is enormous: the Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property estimated that intellectual property theft costs the U.S. economy up to $600 billion annually, a figure highlighting a devastating impact on innovation and competitiveness. This "largest illicit transfer of wealth in human history," as described by White House experts, directly contributes to strengthening Beijing's technological capabilities, including those in the quantum field, without the costs and time of independent research and development.
Global impact and emerging threats of Chinese cyber espionage
The threat of Chinese cyber espionage is not limited to the United States. Recent statements by Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) in June 2024 confirm that Chinese cyber espionage is more extensive than initially estimated, actively targeting Western governments and defense companies. The agency reported that a Chinese state-backed hacker group, responsible for a cyber attack on the Dutch Ministry of Defense in 2023, caused at least 20,000 victims worldwide within a few months with attacks known as Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon, which compromised U.S. internet service providers and critical infrastructure in the transportation, telecommunications, and energy sectors. These attacks demonstrate Beijing's capacity to gain potential control over vital networks, a concern also highlighted by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
On U.S. soil, the House of Representatives' "China Threat Snapshot" report documented over 60 CCP-related espionage cases in the past four years, including incidents ranging from operating clandestine police stations in New York to using drones to spy on military bases, and a significant increase in illegal border crossings by Chinese nationals along the southwest border, with potential security implications. The phenomenon of transnational repression, which threatens Chinese dissidents residing in the U.S., further underscores the breadth of the CCP's operations to undermine American sovereignty.
The battle for post-quantum standards: China versus the United States
Parallel to the hardware race in quantum computing, a crucial competition is unfolding over the definition of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards, with China pursuing a distinctly independent strategy compared to U.S.-led efforts.
China, through the Institute of Commercial Cryptography Standards (ICCS), operating under the umbrella of the Chinese Cryptography Standardization Technical Committee, is soliciting global proposals for PQC cryptographic algorithms. The goal is to establish national standards for quantum-resistant encryption, covering public-key cryptography, cryptographic hash functions, and block ciphers. While the ICCS encourages international participation, evaluating algorithms in terms of security, performance, and implementation feasibility, this move is considered by experts to be a strategic decision with profound geopolitical implications.
According to New Scientist reports and experts like Dustin Moody, a NIST mathematician, China's decision to diverge from U.S.-led PQC initiatives stems from deep distrust of potential "backdoors" or vulnerabilities inserted by U.S. intelligence agencies into cryptographic standards. Historically, China (and Russia) has often developed its own cryptographic standards, reflecting a broader drive towards technological self-sufficiency and sovereign control over its digital infrastructure. There is also speculation that China itself might seek to integrate its own secret access points into its cryptographic protocols, mirroring the concerns it harbors towards the West.
Since 2012, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has led global efforts to develop quantum-resistant cryptography standards. The agency has conducted a rigorous multi-phase selection process, culminating in 2022 with the selection of the first candidate algorithms – such as CRYSTALS-Kyber for public-key encryption and CRYSTALS-Dilithium, FALCON, and SPHINCS+ for digital signatures – with the aim of formalizing new global standards. Although NIST standards are primarily intended for U.S. organizations, their adoption is widespread and influences cybersecurity policies worldwide.
Moody noted that China has already selected PQC algorithms similar to those chosen by NIST, but its approach to standardization is significantly more opaque. While NIST monitors Chinese efforts and does not, in principle, rule out integrating Chinese-developed algorithms if they offer sufficient improvements, the duplication of efforts and divergence of standards complicate future interoperability and global security. China's push reflects a desire to exert greater control and influence over the quantum-era security architecture.
The U.S. strategic response
The United States, aware of the stakes, has undertaken a series of strategic initiatives to counter the potential quantum threat and maintain its technological leadership:
National Quantum Initiative Act (NQIA): Enacted in 2018, this act allocated significant financial resources for quantum research and development, coordinating efforts across various federal agencies (DOE, NSF, NIST, DoD) and promoting collaboration with industry and academia to forge a robust quantum ecosystem.
Development of post-quantum cryptography (PQC): The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) leads the development of next-generation cryptographic algorithms designed to resist future quantum computer attacks. NIST has completed a rigorous multi-year selection process, culminating in the standardization of the first PQC algorithms (such as ML-KEM for key exchange and ML-DSA for digital signatures) between 2022 and 2024. The primary goal is a large-scale transition to these new standards to protect sensitive communications and data.
Private investments and public-private partnerships: Leading technology companies, including IBM, Google, Microsoft, Honeywell, and IonQ, are investing significantly in quantum hardware and software research and development. The U.S. government actively encourages partnerships with these entities to accelerate progress.
Strengthening security and IP protection: The United States is intensifying measures to safeguard its intellectual property and supply chains from espionage and theft, critical elements for maintaining a competitive advantage.
Human capital development: There is a growing commitment to training the next generation of scientists and engineers specializing in quantum technologies through university programs and research incentives.
International collaborations: The U.S. is seeking to strengthen collaborations with allied nations (such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and European partners) to share research, coordinate PQC standardization efforts, and create a united front against emerging threats.
Conclusions: the stakes of an unprecedented race
The combination of China's rapid and opaque progress in quantum computing, coupled with an aggressive and pervasive strategy of economic cyber espionage and its push for independent cryptographic standards, presents one of the most complex and urgent challenges for the national security of the United States and its allies. This is not merely a technological competition; it is a race for control over the future of information and global security.
Should China achieve cryptanalytically relevant quantum capability first, it would nullify decades of investment in cryptography and jeopardize almost all sensitive communications and data worldwide. The implications would extend far beyond espionage: they could paralyze financial sectors, compromise critical infrastructure, and irreversibly alter the geopolitical balance.
The U.S. response, centered on accelerated post-quantum cryptography development, proactive intellectual property protection, and strengthening cyber defense capabilities, is essential but must be continuous and adaptable. The danger lies not only in a single "DeepSeek moment" in quantum but in the constant erosion of security and competitiveness through systematic espionage and the fragmentation of global security standards.
It is imperative that state and private actors work in close collaboration to raise risk awareness, invest in robust countermeasures, and foster unprecedented international cooperation to address this multifaceted threat. This situation also poses a fundamental challenge to open societies: balancing the freedom of research and scientific collaboration, which are drivers of innovation, with the imperative to protect technological advancements and intellectual property from malicious actors. The stakes are economic sovereignty, national security, and trust in the digital fabric that sustains our societies.
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