Quantum Technologies and National Security: State of the Art and Industrial Dynamics in the People's Republic of China

The development of quantum technologies now represents a fundamental pillar of global technological competition, where innovation capacity is inextricably linked to national security and digital sovereignty. The 2025 report by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) highlights how quantum computing, encrypted communication, and precision sensing have become strategic drivers, leading over 30 countries to invest a total of more than $35 billion. In this scenario, the geopolitical confrontation sees China and the United States positioned in the first tier of development, albeit with different models and approaches.

For Beijing, the quantum sector is not merely an area of economic growth but a necessity to ensure technological autonomy in the face of the potential obsolescence of current cryptographic systems. However, as emerges from Western intelligence analyses, the rapid progress of the People's Republic is subject to close monitoring not only for its scientific merits but also for the risk of economic espionage tactics aimed at bridging the gap with the West.

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State of the Art and Industrial Dynamics

China has consolidated its position through prototypes such as Jiuzhang for photonic computing and Zuchongzhi for superconducting computing, achieving quantum advantage with computing speeds that exceed advanced classical systems by several orders of magnitude. Google's recent Willow chip (105 qubits) finds a counterpart in the Chinese Zuchongzhi 3 system, which aims for logic gate fidelity exceeding 99.6%.

A strength of the Chinese strategy lies in the management of the internal supply chain: Beijing has managed to independently produce critical components such as dilution refrigerators and high-performance lasers, reducing vulnerability to external restrictions. On the commercial level, however, a gap persists compared to the United States. American companies, such as IonQ and PsiQuantum, enjoy greater private capitalization, with an average valuation of US quantum "unicorns" of approximately $4.1 billion, compared to $1.4 billion for Chinese ones, which appear more dependent on public support.

National Security and the Cryptoanalytic Threat

The central concern for global security involves the development of a "cryptoanalytically relevant" quantum computer, capable of neutralizing the public-key cryptography currently in use. Intelligence analysts report the risk of the "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" strategy, in which sensitive data is stolen today to be decrypted in the future once sufficiently powerful quantum machines become available.

To mitigate this risk, China is pursuing a hybrid path:

• PQC-QKD Integration. Beijing combines Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC), based on new mathematical algorithms, with Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), which exploits the laws of physics to protect channels.

• National Standardization. While the US defined the first PQC standards in 2024, China launched its own standardization process in 2025, aiming for the migration of critical infrastructures by 2035.

• Quantum Networks. The use of satellites such as "Micius" and "Jinan-1" has already allowed for the testing of protected communications on an intercontinental scale.

  
  

Quantum Sensing and Strategic Applications

Precision sensing represents another critical area for defense and strategic autonomy. These tools allow for the measurement of gravity, magnetic fields, and inertia with levels of sensitivity impossible for traditional technologies.

• Navigation. Tests on atomic interferometers conducted on the Tiangong space station pave the way for inertial navigation systems independent of GPS.

• Underwater Monitoring. High-sensitivity quantum magnetometers are potentially capable of detecting minute magnetic anomalies, improving the surveillance of territorial waters.

• Energy. In 2024, the activation of the first quantum demonstration power substation in Hefei integrated quantum sensors and encrypted communications to protect the grid from external interference.

  
  

Risk Analysis and Necessary Actions

Despite its progress, China faces structural disadvantages, such as the lower maturity of its software ecosystem and cloud platforms compared to Western giants like IBM or Amazon. The density of quantum companies in the West remains much higher, favoring greater speed in applicative innovation.

To consolidate its resilience, China will need to:

1. Enhance AI-Quantum Integration. Artificial intelligence is fundamental for optimizing the preparation of quantum states and the analysis of data collected by sensors.

2. Modularize Production. Reducing costs and standardizing upstream components is essential for moving from laboratory prototypes to large-scale industrial adoption.

3. Ensure Strategic Autonomy: Developing an entirely national supply chain is the only way to prevent vulnerabilities arising from foreign technological dependencies or economic coercion.

In summary, the stability of national security in the quantum era will depend on the ability to balance the development of offensive computing power with the implementation of advanced cryptographic and sensing shields.