The Beijing-Moscow Axis: Ideological Convergence, Sanctions Evasion, and the Strategic Pursuit of Sovereignty (November 2025 Report)
- Nicola Iuvinale
- 55 minuti fa
- Tempo di lettura: 5 min
Preface: The Emergence of a New Order, From Pragmatism to Strategic Solidarity
The Beijing summit in November 2025 between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, marking the 30th regular meeting of heads of government, formalized a partnership that has reached full ideological and strategic maturity, even while managing its inherent economic tensions. The key decisions made signaled a shift from quantity to quality in Sino-Russian cooperation: focusing on 63 strategic mega-projects worth $130 billion (electronics, AI, automotive), deepening digital integration (particularly in AI and autonomous logistics), and launching Russian planning for Rare Earths and Rare Metals extraction—a clear drive for industrial sovereignty to mitigate potential over-reliance on Beijing.
The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination is now defined by two core pillars: ideological convergence and geopolitical realism. Russia's "Pivot to the East" is a forced choice, vital for the internal development of Siberia and the Arctic, making China the indispensable economic and financial partner. However, the "explosive" phase of trade growth has ended, evidenced by a contraction in trade volume in 2025. Despite this, the German Foreign Ministry's analysis of the Beijing-Moscow Axis highlights a crucial security dimension: China is estimated to be responsible for 80% of sanctions evasion cases and provides essential technological and logistical support (microelectronics, critical minerals) to the Russian military industry.
This strategic solidarity is rooted in a deep ideological convergence that goes "beyond alliance"—a shared rejection of Western liberal values, an exaltation of national sovereignty, and a common goal to establish a multipolar world order. Xi Jinping's ideas are even viewed in Russia as the "possible theoretical foundation for a new system of global governance." Ultimately, the Sino-Russian relationship is a complex synthesis where political-ideological alignment and defense support provide the necessary stability to navigate economic realism, including China's cautious investment approach and Russia's active pursuit of sovereignty in critical areas like Rare Earths.
by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale
Analysis of the Relationship
I. Strategic Support and Security Axis: Sanctions Evasion and Secondary Risks
China's support is vital to Russia's resilience, but this cooperation actively exposes Chinese entities to Western economic retaliation.
A. Evasion and Critical Supplies
Key Role in Evasion: A German Foreign Ministry report indicates that China is responsible for 80% of sanctions evasion cases imposed on Russia.
Indirect Military Supplies: China provides essential materials to Russian military factories, including microelectronics (80% of chips imported by Russia in 2024), critical minerals (gallium, germanium, antimony), machinery, chemicals, and gunpowder.
Financial Evasion: The shift to Ruble and Renminbi (RMB) payments for gas and the use of cryptocurrencies create a resilient financial infrastructure, reducing reliance on the Western system.
B. Secondary Sanctions Risks for Chinese Companies
The US, EU, and UK have actively sanctioned Chinese entities to disrupt critical supply chains:
Direct Sanctions: The US has sanctioned hundreds of Chinese companies supplying machine tools and microelectronics for Russia's defense industrial base. The EU has also included Chinese firms in its blacklists, tightening restrictions on the export of dual-use goods.
Global Financial Risk: Chinese companies risk being excluded from the Western financial system (e.g., loss of access to dollar transactions) if their collaboration is deemed overt.
US Entity List: The addition of Chinese entities to the US Entity List imposes severe export restrictions on US technology, making the acquisition of essential components extremely difficult.
Cost of Cooperation: While the Chinese government opposes these unilateral sanctions, the risk for large companies reliant on Western markets remains high, adding an element of implicit friction and hidden cost to the cooperation.
II. The Ideological Roots of Convergence and the Global Vision
The partnership's strength is anchored in principles that transcend tactical politics:
Rejection of Neoliberal Values: Both nations defend national sovereignty and reject Western policies perceived as interference.
Multipolar Vision:Â They actively work to promote a multipolar world order, with Xi Jinping's ideas viewed in Moscow as a "possible theoretical foundation for a new system of global governance."
Opposition to Military Blocs:Â The convergence is manifested in their shared opposition to the expansion of US-led military blocs (NATO).
Strategic Alignment: Formal political support is absolute: Russia's affirmation of the "One China" principle and China's support for Russia's territorial integrity.
III. The Economic Pivot: Slowdown and Technological Leap
The economic context necessitates rapid structural adaptation and a shift in paradigm:
Crisis of Quantitative Growth: The contraction in trade volume (9.4% drop in 2025) forces a transition to "high-quality cooperation," moving beyond commodity trade.
Industrial and Future Technologies Focus: Emphasis is placed on the $130 billion projects and a technological leap focusing on AI standardization and Space Integration (GLONASS/BeiDou).
Investment Realism: Despite military support, Chinese direct investment in Russia remains cautious and significantly lower than investment in lower-risk areas like ASEAN, indicating pragmatic risk management.
IV. Russia's Pursuit of Industrial Sovereignty: The Limit of Dependency
Russia's Rare Earths initiative highlights the fear of over-dependency:
Rare Earths Imperative: Putin's directive for a long-term roadmap to develop independent Rare Earths extraction and production is a strategic move to secure a vital resource for defense, classified as crucial for Russian "survival."
Strategic Paradox: This pursuit of autonomy is complicated by the fact that China is simultaneously the most likely source for the advanced technology and investment needed to develop this industry in Russia.
V. Logistics and Internal Development
The Pivot is intrinsically linked to the physical transformation of Russian territory, including the enhancement of the Northern Sea Route and the development of multimodal transport hubs on the borders with China.
Conclusions
The China-Russia Strategic Partnership is an Axis of Stability founded on deep ideological convergence and strategic security cooperation that is vital to Russia's resilience.
While political alignment is "no-limits," the relationship is governed by economic realism which necessitates a transition to high-value sectors, and by Russia's fear of asymmetric over-dependence. Secondary sanctions risks compel Chinese companies to operate with extreme caution, adding an element of implicit cost and friction to the cooperation, but not enough to halt it.