"If Turkey deploys S-400s out of operational necessity, it could be in response to the threat posed by Iranian missiles", said Ali Bakr, a Turkey expert at Qatar University. Experts believe that if Turkey really deploys the S-400 air defense missile system, it could intensify the dispute with the United States. The Russian S-400 system was purchased by Turkey but was never deployed in the face of U.S. sanctions
Turkey may be on the verge of deploying Russian-made S-400 air defense missile systems to its border with Iraq as it plans to launch a summer offensive against the PKK in Iraq's Kurdistan region.
Should the deployment actually take place, it would be the first time Turkey has deployed Russian-made systems since it risked Western sanctions by purchasing them in 2019.
An S-400 system is unloaded from a Russian transport plane in 2019
Deployment after five years
According to Turkish media, Turkey is expected to deploy S-400 systems on the border with Iraq in preparation for an offensive against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. The system will be used as a defense against PKK drones.
However, reports indicate that it would be "excessive" to use the system, which is one of the most advanced defense systems in existence, to deal with advanced air weapons threats, such as shooting down drones and advanced missiles, and should be intended for national-level forces.
Meanwhile, Ali Bakr, a Turkey expert at Qatar University, expressed skepticism about the possibility of "deploying S-400s against the PKK." "This information may not be true. If Turkey deploys S-400s out of operational necessity, it could be in response to the threat posed by Iranian missiles."
According to Ali, since Turkey already has troops in the region bordering northern Iraq, it makes more sense to deploy the S-400s in the current context of heightened regional tensions. "The recent conflict between Iran and Israel may be the real reason why Turkey is preparing to deploy S-400s." Ali explained that relations between Turkey and Iraq have improved recently and that the move would ensure both Turkey's and Iraq's security. In January this year, Iranian missiles struck a Mossad branch in northern Iraq, Xinhua reported.
The picture shows the S-400 air defense system, which has not been deployed in the five years since Turkey purchased it.
According to Suleyman Ozelen, senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, a U.S.-based think tank, the use of Russian-made S-400 systems to counter Iranian missiles could put Turkey in a difficult position: "It is like using Russian weapons against Russia's main ally in the Middle East (Iran)."
According to Suleiman, Turkey could also try to use this fact to show that military cooperation with Russia still exists. "The question is not whether Turkey will deploy the system or not, but whether it still holds it." Suleiman believes that if Turkey deploys the system, it could exacerbate its dispute with the United States.
Experts believe that if Turkey really deploys the S-400 air defense missile system, it could intensify the dispute with the United States.
Turkey does not want the F-35 but does it want the S-400?
The Russian S-400 system was purchased by Turkey but was never deployed in the face of U.S. sanctions on Russia.
In 2017, Turkey signed a contract with Russia to purchase S-400 systems, with deliveries scheduled to begin in 2019. As a NATO member, Turkey's purchase of Russian-made air defense missile systems was strongly opposed by the United States and NATO, which argued that these systems were incompatible with NATO weapon systems and could help Russia track the F-35 stealth fighters that the United States was developing in cooperation with its allies.
In July 2019, the U.S. suspended Turkey's participation in the F-35 program and the following year imposed sanctions on Turkey for "the large-scale purchase of Russian air defense systems."
According to Science and Technology Daily, the S-400 air defense missile system has advanced low-altitude interception performance, with a minimum firing height of only 5 meters, particularly suitable for fighting drones and so on.
Earlier this year, the United States agreed to sell F-35 fighter jets to Greece.
U.S. officials have also said that the United States would welcome Turkey's return to the F-35 program if it can resolve the S-400 issue.
In this case, however, Turkey would seem to prefer to keep the S-400, shifting its focus from F-35 fighters to the F-16.
It is worth noting that Turkey did not deploy the S-400 system immediately after "receiving the goods." In 2019, Turkey used F-16 and F-4 fighter jets to test the S-400 radar system, and the United States expressed "strong condemnation." Thereafter, however, there was no sign that Turkey would use the system. It was not until November 2022 that Turkey's then defense minister, Hulusi Akar, stated that Turkey had "no problem with the S-400" and that the system was "in operation and ready for use.
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