China and Russia: Strategic Alliance, Contrasting Visions, and Beijing's Diplomatic Trilemma. The Perception of the EU: A Declining or Rising Pole? Contrasting Strategies: How to Resist U.S. Influence

Abstract

This report explores the profound divergences between China and Russia regarding the future world order and, in particular, the role of the European Union. While Russia perceives an EU in economic and political decline, China considers it an "important pole" in the multipolar context, aiming to strengthen its strategic autonomy. The report also analyzes the different strategies adopted by Moscow and Beijing to counter U.S. influence, highlighting how Russia favors a military approach to defend against NATO expansion, while China adopts a more flexible strategy based on economic strength and a vast diplomatic network. Finally, the concept of China's "diplomatic trilemma" is introduced: the difficult management of three conflicting interests – maintaining alignment with Russia, adhering to principles of sovereignty and non-interference, and preserving economic and political ties with the United States and Europe. China's ability to balance these contradictory interests will shape its foreign policy and influence the future dynamics of its relationship with Russia.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

China's Diplomatic Trilemma: Balancing Contradictory Interests

The diplomacy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in this complex phase is guided by the delicate attempt to balance three fundamental, often conflicting, interests: maintaining a solid alignment with Russia, adhering to the long-term principles of its foreign policy, and preserving crucial ties with the United States and Europe. This "trilemma" presents China with a constant challenge: any action taken to strengthen one interest risks undermining at least one of the others, and Beijing's ability to manage this is central to its varied diplomatic behaviors since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

The Three Pillars of the Chinese Trilemma

1. Maintaining and Growing Alignment with Russia: China's primary and most evident interest is maintaining and strengthening its alignment with Russia, even in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This relationship has deep and lasting roots, founded on a common vision of global politics: limiting U.S. power. Both nations view the United States as the main threat to their internal and external stability. Beyond this geopolitical convergence, there are common material interests, particularly in energy and military technology trade, and shared values regarding the virtue of authoritarian political systems that pursue state-directed development strategies. The personal ties between presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin serve as a cohesive element, lubricating an already strategically important relationship for both.

2. Commitment to Principles of Territorial Integrity and Non-Interference: China's second crucial interest is to uphold its unwavering commitment to the principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty, and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. This is a "core interest" for China, fundamental to its national identity and, consequently, to the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. President Xi Jinping has reiterated the importance of these principles, including them as one of the five pillars of his Global Security Initiative. In this context, China has articulated a new vision for the international order that, in its intentions, should prevent future conflicts. During a video address at the annual Boao Asia Forum, Xi proposed "indivisible security," a concept asserting that no country can strengthen its own security at the expense of others. This principle has been repeatedly invoked by Russia in talks on Ukraine. China's adoption of this concept, even outside the specific context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is significant and has implications for future U.S. actions, particularly regarding Taiwan or the South China Sea, areas where Beijing staunchly defends its sovereignty.

3. Preserving Ties with the United States and Europe: The third fundamental interest in the Chinese trilemma concerns maintaining stable and productive relations with the United States and the European Union. These two blocs represent China's most important trading partners, and Beijing cannot afford to jeopardize these ties, at least not at this stage. Beyond the economic stakes, Chinese strategists are aware that an unstable and hostile relationship with Washington and Brussels could severely undermine the "Chinese national rejuvenation dream." Such instability could manifest in various forms, including a potential security crisis, for example, regarding the Taiwan issue. Similarly, Beijing has long viewed Europe as a "swing" actor in geopolitics, a perception that would prevent it from aligning excessively against China.

The Perception of the European Union: A Declining or Rising "Pole"?

Moscow's and Beijing's views on the future and role of the European Union in the global landscape are sharply contrasting, reflecting their respective analyses of power dynamics and strategic opportunities.

Russia's Position: The EU in Decline

The Kremlin, through statements by spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, expresses a markedly pessimistic view regarding the future of the European Union. According to Moscow, the EU is undergoing a period of progressive loss of economic power, political influence, and sovereignty. This trend, described as an "objective and dynamic process," is said to manifest in the declining economic development dynamics within EU member countries and a growing dependence on external actors. For Russia, it is "unlikely" that the EU can emerge as one of the "significant poles" in the future multipolar world order, suggesting its marginalization in the long term.

China's Position: The EU as an "Important Pole"

Conversely, China maintains a more optimistic and pragmatic perspective on the European Union's role. Chinese President Xi Jinping has explicitly called the EU "an important pole in a multipolar world." This definition is no coincidence: Beijing actively supports the EU's strategic autonomy and has invited European countries to join forces in the face of geopolitical challenges. For China, a strategically autonomous and influential European Union can serve as a counterbalance to U.S. hegemony, contributing to a greater balance of power globally. This view reflects a Chinese strategic calculation aimed at diversifying its relations and avoiding excessive polarization of the international landscape.

Contrasting Strategies: How to Resist U.S. Influence

The divergences in the perception of the EU are also reflected in China's and Russia's strategic approaches to countering U.S. influence, shaped by their respective geographies, economic capabilities, and diplomatic networks.

1. Approach to Security and the NATO Question

Russia's Military Strategy: Defense of "Vital Space" For Russia, NATO's eastward expansion represents a direct and existential threat to its national security. Since the end of the Cold War, the Alliance's enlargement to countries like Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and subsequently the Baltic States, Finland, and Sweden, has brought NATO's borders ever closer to key Russian strategic areas. This perception of encirclement has driven Moscow to adopt an increasingly aggressive and militarized posture. The military operation in Ukraine, launched in February 2022, was motivated, according to the Kremlin, by the need to prevent further NATO advances and to protect what it calls its "vital space." Russia finds itself in a position with limited room for maneuver in Europe, with allies primarily concentrated within the Eurasian Economic Union, and narrower partnerships with countries like Iran and North Korea.

China's Flexible Strategy: Countering Encirclement via Bilateral Alliances China faces a different strategic challenge in the Asia-Pacific region. The U.S. strategy in this area focuses on creating an anti-China containment bloc through the so-called "island chains," forging bilateral alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia. However, unlike NATO, these alliances are less cohesive and binding, lacking a unified collective defense clause, and often feature internal disagreements among members. China has the capacity to pursue a more flexible and diversified strategy, avoiding immediate direct military confrontation. It has preferred to resort to diplomacy and economic cooperation to stabilize its regional environment. For instance, it has managed to alleviate disputes in the South China Sea through negotiations with ASEAN countries and has maintained relatively balanced relations with India, partly through military support for Pakistan. This flexibility allows China to resolve its difficulties without having to adopt drastic military measures like Russia.

2. Economic Strength and Global Influence

Russia's Economic Vulnerability The Russian economy is heavily reliant on energy exports, particularly oil and gas. Since 2022, Western sanctions have drastically limited these exports, significantly reducing Russia's ability to exert global economic influence. Many Russian industrial sectors have stagnated, further limiting its strategic options to primarily military responses. Russia's volume of trade is significantly lower than China's, making it less resilient to external economic pressures.

China's Economic Power and Global Influence China, conversely, is a global economic giant, at the center of global manufacturing and with a dominant position in global supply chains. Its economy is vastly larger than Russia's, granting it greater strategic flexibility. Despite U.S. attempts at economic "decoupling," particularly in the high-tech chip sector, China has demonstrated remarkable resilience through independent technological innovation. A prime example is Huawei's success in launching new generations of mobile phones, circumventing U.S. bans. This self-innovation capability has put pressure on American companies, leading the U.S. government to publicly state that it does not seek to "decouple" from China due to the enormous economic losses that would entail. China has also expanded its influence by diversifying its export markets in Europe and Africa and reducing its reliance on the U.S. dollar. This economic strength allows China to adopt flexible countermeasures even in the face of sanctions and to avoid resorting to military means to confront the United States.

3. Breadth of Diplomatic Network

Russia's Limited Network Russia's diplomatic circle is relatively narrow, primarily focused on a few partners like Iran, North Korea, and some Eurasian Economic Union states. NATO's eastward expansion has contributed to alienating many potential allies, limiting its ability to build a broad international support network.

China's Vast Network China, by contrast, boasts a vast and diverse global diplomatic network. Through initiatives like the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI), China has transferred funds, technology, and other resources to countries in Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, gaining strategic benefits and strengthening its influence in return. This global strategy makes it much harder for the United States to isolate China. Furthermore, China has increased its voice and influence in key international organizations like the United Nations, consolidating its position as an independent global actor.

Managing the Trilemma and Its Implications

The challenges China faces in maintaining its strategic position amidst the war in Ukraine and rising global tensions are substantial and constantly evolving. Managing this complex "trilemma" requires constant attention and extremely skillful diplomatic maneuvering. The need to balance support for Russia with the defense of its own principles of sovereignty and the safeguarding of vital economic ties with the West places Chinese diplomacy before difficult and delicate choices. Every decision in one direction has repercussions on the others, making its foreign policy a precarious yet essential balancing act for its long-term objectives.

In summary, while both China and Russia share the goal of a more balanced, less U.S.-dominated world order, their respective geopolitical situations and national capabilities lead them to adopt distinct strategies. Russia, perceiving itself under a direct existential threat from NATO, resorts to a more confrontational and military approach. China, on the other hand, leveraging its vast economic influence and extensive diplomatic network, can afford a more flexible and diversified strategy based on economic cooperation and diplomacy, avoiding direct military confrontation and maintaining its own independent strategic space. This also explains why, despite Putin's urging, China is not eager to join a form of joint confrontation that does not fully align with its own interests and capabilities.