China's Russian Arsenal: A Strategic Reliance Tested by Moscow's Crises

Abstract: China's Enduring Reliance on Russian Arms Amidst Moscow's Export Challenges

This article examines the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) continued strategic reliance on key Russian-made military equipment, despite China's significant advancements in domestic defense production. While the PLA has modernized extensively, critical Russian platforms—including Mi-17 helicopters, Kilo-class submarines, Su-30/35 fighters, and S-300/400 air defense systems—remain integral to its arsenal. The text highlights that the operational longevity and maintenance of these complex systems often necessitate ongoing technical assistance, spare parts, and upgrades from Russia.

However, this enduring dependency now faces substantial challenges due to the international sanctions imposed on Russia following the war in Ukraine. These sanctions severely impede Russia's ability to procure essential components, particularly advanced electronics, and disrupt its financial and logistical capacities for arms exports and after-sales support. Consequently, China may encounter increasing difficulties in securing critical spare parts and technical expertise for its Russian-sourced equipment, potentially impacting fleet readiness and long-term operational capabilities. The situation compels China to further accelerate its indigenous defense programs, transforming a historical reliance into a strategic imperative for greater self-sufficiency.

by Gabriele e Nicola Iuvinale

China's Russian Arsenal: A Strategic Dependence Tested by Moscow's Woes

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China has undergone an extraordinary modernization journey in recent decades, transforming from a force predominantly reliant on Soviet/Russian-sourced equipment to one that now boasts cutting-edge domestically produced technologies. However, despite this rapid evolution, a significant portion of its arsenal remains tied to Russian-made platforms and subsystems. This historical legacy is now facing a crucial test, as Russia's increasing difficulties in exporting arms and providing technical assistance, exacerbated by international sanctions imposed following the war in Ukraine, come into play.

A Lasting Russian Imprint on the PLA's Arsenal

The provided text highlights that, even with the growing predominance of national equipment, China still maintains a tactical and strategic reliance on certain categories of Russian armaments. For many of these systems, continued operational capability largely depends on Moscow's ability to provide technical assistance, spare parts, and upgrades.

Ground Forces: Critical Helicopters and Air Defense

Within the Ground Forces, while China has independently developed most of its main combat equipment—such as the ZBD04A infantry fighting vehicles (inspired by BMP-3 turret systems) or the PHL03 multiple rocket launchers (derived from Russian models but deeply modified)—some exceptions remain crucial.

The Tor M1 field air defense system is one of the most striking examples: directly purchased as a finished product from

Russia, it's a backbone of division/brigade-level air defense. Its integration into the Chinese radar network requires ongoing collaboration. Other acquisitions include Russian-made radio jammers for electronic warfare and precision munitions like 152mm Red Earth laser-guided artillery shells.

However, the true Russian "workhorse" for the Chinese army is the Mi-17 helicopter series (Mi-17, Mi-171, Mi-17V5, Mi-17V7, and numerous improved variants). These multi-role helicopters, used for transport, assault, electronic warfare, and search and rescue, are ubiquitous and considered "hardly replaceable in the near future" due to their reliability and low operating costs. China even considered purchasing a production line but found direct import more economical due to Russia's established production chain. The maintenance and supply for these helicopters represent a significant ongoing dependency on Moscow.

Navy: Surface Combatants and Submarines

Liaoning

The Chinese Navy also boasts a strong presence of Russian-made equipment, having once heavily relied on it. While the PLA Navy has made tremendous strides, the Russian influence is still evident. The aircraft carrier Liaoning, though rebuilt by China, has Soviet roots. The four Type 956E/EM destroyers, famous for their powerful 3M80E ("Sunburn") anti-ship missiles, are still in active service and are expected to remain so until at least 2030.

Kilo-class submarine

In the submarine sector, dependence has been particularly strong: China acquired two Type 877EKM and ten Type 636M (Kilo-class) submarines. These conventional submarines, although now supplemented by the domestically produced Type 039A, once formed the backbone of the submarine fleet and continue to require specialized maintenance and specific spare parts. Ka-27, Ka-28, and Ka-31 naval helicopters are also Russian imports still in use.

Furthermore, China directly drew inspiration from Russian missiles and subsystems for its own weapon development: the YJ-12 anti-ship missile originated from the supersonic 3M80, and the YJ-18 from the "Calibre" 3M54E missiles. Naval air defense systems like the 9M317 and S-300F ("Shikili" and "Rif"), along with their associated radars, also influenced Chinese designs, as seen on the Type 052B destroyer and Type 054A frigates. The H/PJ26 76mm naval gun, widely used on Chinese ships, was developed by building upon samples and technologies from the Russian AK176 naval gun. For all these systems, the availability of original components or Russian technical consultation can be crucial.

Air Force: The Backbone of Fighters and Air Defense

Su-27SK

The Chinese Air Force is perhaps the most historically and strategically dependent branch on Russian supplies. The introduction of the Su-27 and subsequent licensed production of the J-11, followed by the acquisition of Su-30MKK/MKK2 and 24 Su-35SKs, laid the groundwork for China's fourth-generation air combat and precision ground attack capabilities. These 200 Russian-made fighters literally opened the door to the PLA's modern combat aviation.

Beyond the aircraft themselves, hundreds of AL31FN series engines power the J-10 fighters. Numerous air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, as well as precision-guided bombs, were also acquired from Russia, becoming a key element of Chinese deterrence in the Taiwan Strait in past decades. China continues to import smaller but crucial specialized equipment from Russia, such as aerial refueling pods.

In the realm of ground-based air defense, the reliance is even more pronounced:

dozens of battalions of S-300 (PMU, PMU2) and the highly advanced S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, with their supporting missiles (from 5V55R to 9M96 and 40N6), constitute a considerable and critical part of China's air defense capabilities, and are expected to remain operational well beyond 2030. The complexity of these systems necessitates continuous technical support and access to original components and software updates from the manufacturer.

Russian Difficulties and Implications for China

The war in Ukraine has unleashed a wave of international sanctions that are severely eroding Russia's ability to produce and export arms, with direct repercussions on its capacity to support existing arsenals in client countries like China.

1. Component Procurement Difficulties: Sanctions drastically limit Russia's access to electronic components, chips, and other advanced technologies crucial for the production and maintenance of modern weapon systems. This translates into a potential shortage of critical spare parts for China's Mi-17 helicopters, Kilo submarines, Su-30/35 fighters, and S-300/400 systems. Without these components, long-term maintenance and operability can become extremely problematic.

2. Financial and Logistical Restrictions: Sanctions impact Russia's ability to receive payments and manage international supply chains. This can make the shipment of spare parts and the deployment of technical assistance teams more complex and costly.

3. Market Reduction and Reputation Loss: The collapse of new export contracts and the deterioration of Russia's image as a reliable supplier mean its defense industry is under significant financial and operational strain. This could result in fewer resources available for after-sales support to existing customers, including China.

China, therefore, faces a twofold challenge: on one hand, it must ensure the full operational readiness of Russian systems that still constitute a vital part of its arsenal; on the other, it must contend with Russia's growing unreliability as a provider of assistance and spare parts. Although China possesses advanced reverse engineering and local production capabilities, replicating every single component and ensuring full compatibility with existing complex Russian systems is a monumental and expensive undertaking.

In conclusion, while Russian equipment has undoubtedly accelerated the PLA's modernization, its continued operability is now at risk due to external pressures on Russia's defense industry. This situation will likely compel China to further accelerate its indigenous development programs to replace Russian systems or seek alternative solutions for maintenance and supply, potentially through reverse engineering or the development of compatible components.

The Sino-Russian military relationship, once based on a clear Chinese dependence on Russian technologies, is evolving in a context where dependency is transforming into a sustainability challenge, testing the resilience of China's arsenal and Russia's ability to honor its long-term commitments.