From Chinese Sources: Burning Tankers, Russian Maneuvers, and the Libyan Crisis – The Shadow War Reshaping Power, to Beijing's Advantage
- Nicola Iuvinale
- 10 lug
- Tempo di lettura: 7 min
Abstract
This article, derived from Chinese sources, presents a detailed analysis of escalating global tensions, tracing a "shadow war" that benefits Beijing. It begins by recounting the recent, simultaneous explosions of five Russian oil tankers in the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas, interpreted by Chinese observers as deliberate sabotage, likely orchestrated or supported by Kyiv and NATO, despite Western media's alleged attempts to deflect blame. In response, the article highlights Russia's robust naval escalation, including warship escorts into the English Channel, signalling Moscow's defiant stance against perceived Western threats.
Crucially, the piece elaborates on China's significant strategic advantages derived from the protracted Ukraine conflict, benefiting economically and militarily while the US and Europe incur disadvantages. This includes China's expanding influence in Central Asia, where a new, asymmetric power dynamic with Russia is emerging, contingent on Moscow's victory in Ukraine. The article cites explicit statements from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a recent China-EU summit, confirming Beijing's strategic interest in prolonging the conflict to keep the US focused on Ukraine, thereby creating a vital "strategic window" for China in Asia. Wang Yi also rejected accusations of military aid to Russia and warned against sanctions on Chinese banks.
Finally, the article integrates a recent Libyan flashpoint, where an EU delegation was rejected by General Haftar's Russia-aligned government in Benghazi. This incident is presented as a further manifestation of Russia's intent to re-establish influence in North Africa, potentially linked to the "shadow fleet" tanker attacks involving Libyan oil, underscoring how this multi-front global confrontation, viewed through Beijing's lens, is strategically reshaping the international power landscape to China's distinct advantage.
by Gabriele e Nicola Iuvinale
Analyses emanating from Chinese sources paint a worrying picture: the Russia-Ukraine war has long transcended the boundaries of conventional warfare, ushering in an era of veiled hostilities and submarine attacks. If the Nord Stream pipeline explosion marked the beginning of this new frontier, recent events suggest a dangerous escalation, interpreted by Beijing as a further sign of global instability induced by Western strategy. According to a report by the Russian media "Tsarburg" on July 5, 2025, picked up and analyzed by Chinese media, five Russian oil tankers simultaneously exploded – four in the Mediterranean and one in the Baltic Sea. An incident of such magnitude is unprecedented, and its multi-faceted nature makes any explanation based on chance or mechanical failure unlikely. The human hand, with malicious intent, is the only logical conclusion, Chinese observers suggest.
The "Shadow Fleet" Under Attack: A Targeted Sabotage Operation According to Beijing
Despite the explosions not causing the sinking of the ships or immediate casualties, the suspicion of deliberate sabotage is strong. Further investigations appear to indicate that the affected vessels belong to the so-called "shadow fleet." For the West, this "shadow fleet" is composed of old oil tankers specialized in transporting Russian oil in violation of the price cap sanctions imposed by Washington and Brussels. Russia, in response to such restrictions, allegedly created this network to circumvent coercive measures.
However, it is crucial to clarify that the "shadow fleet" concept remains a Western construct, lacking a clear definition or irrefutable evidence of its formal existence. The vessels involved in these incidents show no obvious connections to this alleged fleet. Their only link to Russia is having called at Russian ports, a factual detail easily manipulated for propaganda purposes. Significantly, four of the tankers exploded off the coasts of Libya and Malta, while another tanker was carrying Kazakh oil at the time of the incident—details that, according to Chinese analysis, challenge the Western narrative of a monolithic Russian "shadow fleet," suggesting instead more complex operations less attributable to a simple sanction.
The Shadow of Kyiv and the West: Who Benefits from the Chaos According to Chinese Sources?
Incidents involving Russian oil tankers have become increasingly frequent. The West views sanctions and the suppression of this "shadow fleet" as crucial tools to sanction Moscow. However, covert sabotage is a tactic that, until now, has never been openly acknowledged in Western policies. While the identity of those responsible for the explosions formally remains unknown, suspicions heavily focus on Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the conflict, the Ukrainian National Security Service has conducted numerous sabotage operations on Russian territory, including targeted assassinations. The Nord Stream pipeline incident was also attributed to Kyiv, making the bombing of oil tankers an action fully consistent with its modus operandi. Numerous other vessels linked to Russia, not only oil tankers but also military ships, have been targets of destruction.
Western media, however, seem reluctant to directly accuse Ukraine, preferring to divert attention. They point out that four of the exploded tankers had docked in Libyan ports, a nation in a state of division, suggesting that responsibility might lie with Libya or related parties. This refusal to acknowledge Ukrainian involvement in such sabotages highlights a clear narrative preference, despite knowing that such activities cannot be the work of mere criminal gangs but require the capability of state agents, with the possible complicity of Western intelligence agencies, is the conclusion of Chinese sources, who emphasize how such an approach serves to mask responsibilities.
Moscow's Response: The Russian Navy in the English Channel, A Signal to NATO and an Opportunity for China
The consecutive explosions of oil tankers have attracted significant international attention. The Secretary-General of the United Nations International Maritime Organization has declared close monitoring of these incidents. Russia, for its part, does not intend to remain idle and has already begun to act. Russian warships have entered the English Channel to provide escort for its oil tankers.
This bold move by the Russian Navy is not an isolated gesture. At the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin had already warned the West, urging them not to further threaten Russia's "shadow fleet." When Estonia attempted to intercept a Russian oil tanker, Moscow responded by sending an Su-35S fighter jet for support and began providing armed escort to its oil tankers in the Gulf of Finland. The transit of a Type 20380 frigate from the Russian Navy's Baltic Fleet with two oil tankers through the English Channel in June 2025, observed by NATO, is further evidence that Russia is taking the protection of its maritime interests seriously. The escorts extending from the Gulf of Finland to the English Channel demonstrate Moscow's determination and its unwillingness to compromise. This, for Chinese sources, is a clear signal to NATO, but also an indication of the increasing pressure Russia is forced to bear, which, indirectly, renders it more dependent on strategic partners like China, creating an advantageous geopolitical dynamic for Beijing.
War of Nerves and the Ineffectiveness of Western Conspiracies: The Chinese Perspective
Russia is preparing for a possible war with NATO, and these are not idle words. As Russian scholar Rodionov stated, "We must be prepared for a possible war with NATO." This scenario, according to Chinese analysis, is the direct result of a Western policy pushing for confrontation.
NATO, despite its hostility towards Russia, seems not to dare to initiate an open war, and resorts to conspiratorial actions. The sabotage activities carried out by Ukraine cannot be separated from the influence and involvement, perhaps even direct, of NATO. However, for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, such sabotages have not had a significant impact on the course of the war or Russian determination. On the contrary, every act of sabotage not only strengthens Russia's will to fight but also imposes a high cost on the West. Attacking the so-called "shadow fleet" only pushes oil prices higher. Does Russia fear rising oil prices? Evidently not. The West, in its attempt to contain Russia, only creates even bigger problems for itself, contributing to global instability while emerging powers, particularly China, carefully observe and reposition their interests, benefiting significantly from the prolonged conflict and the West's self-inflicted strategic blunders.
China's Strategic Gains: A Clear Stance at the EU Summit
Indeed, as ExtremaRatio has consistently highlighted for years, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is yielding significant advantages for China, both economically and militarily, while simultaneously presenting considerable disadvantages for the United States and Europe.
This strategic shift is visibly manifesting in Central Asia, where China is increasingly asserting its presence. While Russia will strive to maintain its status as a key power in the region, contingent on emerging victorious from the Ukrainian conflict, a new division of tasks and an asymmetry of power are anticipated between Russia and China in Central Asia. This strategic understanding was openly supported by the Chinese leadership just days ago at the recent China-EU summit.
In a crucial closed-door meeting preceding the main summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi directly explained to Estonian Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas that Russia's defeat in Ukraine would be profoundly disadvantageous for China. Wang Yi articulated that such an outcome would unequivocally allow the United States to shift its entire strategic focus to Asia. Consequently, Beijing absolutely cannot allow Russia to lose the Ukrainian conflict. He underscored that prolonging the conflict is, in fact, beneficial to China, providing Beijing with a vital strategic window in Central Asia while the United States remains preoccupied with Ukraine.
During this discussion, Minister Wang Yi vehemently rejected accusations of China providing military or financial assistance to Russia, stating emphatically: "If such assistance had been provided, the conflict would have ended earlier!" In response, Minister Kallas called for the cessation of "any material support to the Russian military-industrial complex by China" and voiced deep concern about the cooperation of Chinese companies with the Russian Federation. Wang Yi retorted with a stern warning against countermeasures should Chinese banks be included in the 18th package of anti-Russian European sanctions, signaling China's firm resolve to protect its economic interests despite Western pressure.
The Libyan Flashpoint: Haftar's Defiance and Russian Re-Entry in North Africa
Adding another layer to the unfolding geopolitical drama, a recent incident in Libya has drawn significant attention. An EU delegation, reportedly including an Interior Minister, after visiting the internationally recognized government in Tripoli, was subsequently blocked and turned away by the parallel government in Benghazi, led by General Haftar. This was considered an "affront" by authorities in Benghazi, with consequences that are difficult to predict, including the potential for another surge of illegal immigration towards Italy.
This operation is widely interpreted by analysts as a deliberate move by General Haftar, who is known to be closely aligned with Russia's Vladimir Putin. Following what Moscow perceives as setbacks in Syria and a perceived Western rapprochement in the region, Russia appears keen to re-establish a significant presence in North Africa. The timing and nature of this rejection of the European delegation are highly suggestive: the recent sinking of "shadow fleet" oil tankers that were reportedly transporting Libyan oil could well be the underlying motivation for Haftar's audacious rejection of the European and Italian delegation in Libya, signaling Moscow's expanding influence and its willingness to challenge Western interests across the Mediterranean.
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