Intelligence Analysis: China's Doctrine of Integrated Dominance and the Breaking Point in Intelligent Warfare

The current strategy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) is defined as a "long-term, high-pressure strategic game" (長期高壓的戰略博弈), aimed at achieving global leadership by 2049, based on the principles of total national security (總體國家安全觀) and Civilian-Military Fusion (軍民融合).

The core goal is systemic superiority achieved through three strategic axes:

1. Information Dominance: Building the Space-Air-Ground Integrated Network (SAGIN) for ubiquitous global connectivity and developing Large Language Models (LLMs) for intention recognition of non-cooperative space targets with 99.9% accuracy.

2. Asymmetric Warfare: Transitioning to "intelligentized warfare" (智能化戰爭) and adopting the Anti-Artificial Intelligence (Anti-AI) Doctrine (反人工智能) to sabotage enemy decision systems. Key assets include Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) and propellant-free space logistics (PSE-EDT).

3. Critical Vulnerabilities: The Chinese AI system exhibits poor robustness against perturbed data, leading to a sharp decline in accuracy. The computational gap in orbit forces critical processing to occur on the ground, introducing decisive latency.

Spy satellite on the background of the Chinese flag

I. Strategic Axes and National Security Objectives

The fundamental goal of the PRC is to establish systemic superiority, ensuring technological self-sufficiency and the capability to project power and deterrence across all domains.

1. The Operational Ecosystem: SAGIN

The primary war objective is to establish Global Information Dominance through the Space-Air-Ground Integrated Network (SAGIN - 空間-空氣-地面一體化網路). This heterogeneous, resilient architecture aims to provide "Anytime, Anywhere, Anyone, and Anything" (4A) network coverage.

• Military Purpose: SAGIN is the unified platform for C4ISR systems, designed to eliminate "information black holes" globally. The Near-Space Communication Network (NS-ComNet) segment (between 20 and 100 km), utilizing stratospheric airships (e.g., the "Yuanmeng" demonstrator), is crucial for extending 6G connectivity and supporting UAV operations in contested theaters.

• Logistics of Projection: The development of the New Partial Space Elevator (PSE) with Electrodynamic Tether (EDT) is a strategic logistics capability. This propellant-free system uses the Lorentz Force to transport cargo over long distances, drastically reducing the cost and logistical footprint of future orbital infrastructure development.

2. The Doctrine of Asymmetric Sabotage

The PLA's tactical strategy is centered on disabling the enemy's highly computerized C4ISR loop, confirming the conceptual shift towards the "intelligentized warfare" (智能化戰爭).

• Anti-AI Doctrine: The Anti-Artificial Intelligence Doctrine (反人工智能) is the conceptual core, with the explicit goal of achieving "intelligence destruction". The strategy targets the three pillars of opponent computing power: Data (數據), Algorithms (算法), and Computing Power (算力), intended to induce strategic misjudgment (戰略誤判).

• Physical Deterrence: This asymmetrical approach is complemented by visible deterrence, including the DF-5C (東風-5C) ICBM and the display of Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) such as microwave and laser systems at the 2025 military parade.

II. Intelligence Strengths and Force Multipliers

Chinese capabilities demonstrate a strong commitment to enhancing decisional speed, logistical efficiency, and operational resilience across theaters.

2.1. Superior Decisional Capability in Space

• LLM-based Intention Recognition: The application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to Non-Cooperative Space Target Intention Recognition is a key intelligence capability. The system integrates multi-source data (trajectory, images, environmental context) to logically deduce the operational intent, classifying targets into 23 subtypes (e.g., Attack, Interference, Grabbing). The ideal accuracy reached 99.9% in testing.

• Satellites Resilience: The Payload-Centric Integrated Control Approach ensures that multi-payload satellites maintain operation even if a single instrument fails, enhancing resilience in contested environments.

2.2. Electronic Warfare and Air Efficiency

• Quantum Security: The pursuit of Quantum Communication (Quantum Communication), specifically Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), aims to provide "unconditional security" for sensitive military data globally.

• Advanced Anti-Jamming: Countermeasures include Covert Communications to hide transmission processes and Anti-Jamming technologies operating across four domains (time, frequency, power, and space).

• UAV Swarm Efficiency: The issue of heterogeneity and energy consumption in UAV swarms is resolved via Collaborative Federated Learning D2D. This optimization technique achieves a 20% reduction in total energy consumption and a 30% reduction in latency for the swarm, dramatically boosting operational endurance.

III. Operational Limits and Vulnerabilities (Critical Weaknesses)

The documentation explicitly details critical weaknesses in the PRC's systems, providing specific targets for potential counter-strategies.

Operational Domain	Vulnerability / Stated Technical Limitation	Strategic Implication
AI / Cognition	Poor Robustness to Adversarial Data: LLM accuracy drops drastically when exposed to perturbed samples, with deviation increasing up to 4.96 times.	Chinese situational awareness systems are vulnerable to non-adversarial noise injection, leading to critical strategic misjudgments.
Space Computing	Inadequate On-Board Computational Capacity: Executing complex LLMs autonomously on satellites is impractical due to current hardware limitations.	Critical AI processing must occur on the ground, introducing unavoidable latency in the decision cycle and a critical data interception point during the downlink.
Electronic Warfare (EW)	Intrinsic Jamming Vulnerability: Despite anti-jamming efforts, satellites are inherently vulnerable to jamming attacks due to their fixed orbits and predictable visibility, making SAGIN a primary target.	The resilience of the network is still contingent on the costly and currently non-ubiquitous Quantum Communication infrastructure.
Air Logistics	Algorithmic Dependence: UAV swarm effectiveness relies on complex algorithms (like IRA) for Federated Learning.	Neutralizing or disrupting these specific algorithms would revert the swarms to inefficient operation, instantly restoring energy consumption and latency issues.
Deep Space Logistics	PSE-EDT Development Stage: The Partial Space Elevator technology is in an advanced theoretical phase. Dynamic models require further refinement regarding tether flexibility and geomagnetic field accuracy.	The low-cost mass logistics capability is strategic but not yet militarily operational for large-scale deployment.

IV. Conclusions and Intelligence Implications

The Chinese strategy is a comprehensive project of systemic transformation, actively positioning the nation to dominate the future operational landscape.

• Intelligence Implication: The focus is shifting from simply tracking enemy assets to predicting enemy intent using automated intelligence. The LLM system is the next generation of C4ISR.

• The Critical Vulnerability Target: The scarcity of on-board computing power and the fragility of AI models to non-adversarial noise reveal the system's Achilles' heel. The most effective counter-strategy involves exploiting the latency introduced by the ground-based processing dependency and using data perturbation to cause cognitive collapse in the AI systems.

Documents Analyzed

	Authors / Reference Entity	Title and Year of Publication
1	State Council Information Office (China Government Network)	China's National Security in the New Era (White Paper). (May 2025).
2	Kang Ruizhi and Li Shengjie (PLA Daily)	Focus on Anti-Artificial Intelligence Operations in Intelligentized Warfare. (May 2025).
3	Wang Xiuwen (Institute for National Defense and Security Research)	中共未來太空發展藍圖之評析 (Analysis of the CCP’s Future Space Development Blueprint). (March 2022).
4	Chen Yuzheng (National Defense University)	中國太空政策之戰略意涵 (Strategic Implications of China's Space Policy). (July 2023).
5	Guangming Daily / CCTV; Li Yan (China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)	The Development and Transformation of Future Combat Methods Based on the September 3rd Military Parade. (September 2025).
6	Xinhua Liu, Zhen Gao, Jun Zhang, et al.	Toward Near-Space Communication Network in the Era of 6G and Beyond. (September 2025).
7	Chengdong Zheng, Qing Li, Lei Liu, et al.	A Payload-Centric Integrated Control Approach for Multi-Payload Satellites. (September 2025).
8	Huibo Li, Peng Gong, Jihao Zhang, et al.	Collaborative Federated Learning of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Space-Air-Ground Integrated Network. (June 2025).
9	Heng Jing, Qinbo Sun, Hua Wang, et al.	Intention Recognition of Space Noncooperative Targets Using Large Language Models. (June 2025).
10	Caoqun Luo, Hao Wen, Haiyan Hu, et al.	Novel Partial Space Elevator via an Electrodynamic Tether for Cargo Transportation. (June 2025).
11	Kai Yang, Yichen Wang, Minwei Shi, et al.	Communications in Space-Air-Ground Integrated Networks: An Overview. (February 2025).