Middle East at a Crossroads: US Strike on Iranian Nuclear Facilities and its Global Ramifications

The Middle East once again asserts itself as a crossroads of global interests and powers, a "gravitational black hole" attracting major international forces. The recent decision by the United States to target three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – marks a significant escalation, sending an unequivocal message to Tehran and, indirectly, to its allies, Moscow and Beijing. This American move is not just an act of deterrence, but a clear display of force with profound military and geopolitical implications.

by Nicola and Gabriele Iuvinale

Military Assessment: A Blow to the Heart of Iran's Nuclear Program

The targeted US military action against the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities represents a surgical strike aimed at dismantling Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities and preventing the development of nuclear weapons. The selection of these targets is not coincidental; it reflects a deep understanding of the critical infrastructure within Iran's nuclear program.

• Fordow: The Hidden Bastion and Near-Weapons Grade Uranium The Fordow facility, located approximately 192 kilometers south of Tehran, is an objective of particular strategic importance. Built deep inside a mountain, more than 90 meters underground, it's extremely difficult to reach with conventional attacks. Its primary function is uranium enrichment, typically up to 20% purity. However, the detection by the IAEA in early 2023 of uranium samples enriched to 83.7% – a purity extremely close to the 90% threshold required for weapons production – triggered a global alarm. The attack on Fordow aims to neutralize Iran's ability to produce highly enriched uranium, effectively blocking the path to building nuclear devices. Its fortified position suggests the use of specific armaments capable of penetrating deep bunkers, highlighting advanced US military capabilities.

• Natanz: The Center of Proliferation Located over 300 kilometers southeast of Tehran, the Natanz facility is considered the core of Iran's enrichment program. With significantly more centrifuges than Fordow, it's believed to be responsible for producing most of Iran's "near-weapons grade uranium," with Iran stating in 2021 that it could enrich uranium up to 60% purity. Recent news of an Israeli attack on June 13, which caused "damage" and "chemical and radioactive contamination," indicates the site was already under scrutiny and potentially vulnerable. The US intervention at Natanz would aim to complete the work of destroying or neutralizing its capabilities, ensuring that enriched uranium production is halted or severely compromised.

• Isfahan: The Starting Point The Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center plays a crucial role in the initial phase of Iran's nuclear fuel cycle. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), this facility converts natural uranium into uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6), the raw material then fed into centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow for enrichment. Striking Isfahan means disrupting the upstream supply chain, rendering even the potential residual operation of the other two facilities ineffective. This is a "decapitation" strategy for the nuclear program, aimed at paralyzing the entire Iranian operation.

• Iranian Missile Capabilities and Defensive Response Despite the attacks on nuclear facilities, Iran possesses one of the most extensive and sophisticated missile programs in the Middle East. A recent German intelligence report warned that Iranian efforts to acquire missile technology in Europe are increasing in 2024. Austrian intelligence services even concluded in May that Iran's nuclear weapons development is "at an advanced stage" and that the country has a "growing arsenal of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads." This means that even if the nuclear program suffers a severe blow, Iran retains the capability to launch missile attacks, either directly or through its regional proxies. Iran's response to these attacks could therefore manifest not only on the nuclear front but also through the activation of its militia network and the launching of missiles against Israeli or American targets in the region. The US objective will also be to strike "its military posture and perhaps oil terminals," indicating broader attacks aimed at crippling Tehran's ability to fuel its proxy network and its economy.

  
  

Geopolitical Assessment: A New Order in the Middle East?

The attack on Iranian nuclear facilities occurs within an extremely tense geopolitical context, marked by competition between major powers and regional conflicts. This US move sends a clear message not only to Iran but also to Russia and China, who have solidified an "axis" considered a threat to liberal democracies.

• Iran's Role as "Great Satan" and "Little Satan" For the Iranian theocratic leadership, the United States remains the "Great Satan," while Israel is the "Little Satan," destined for destruction. This anti-Western rhetoric fuels Iranian foreign policy, manifested through support for groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. Iran is considered the "main purveyor of instability in the Middle East," with actions ranging from Houthi missile launches in the Red Sea against ships and strategic installations (from the UAE and Saudi Arabia to US military bases), to the control of Shiite militias to dominate Sunni populations in other areas. The US attack is a direct response to this destabilization, aimed at striking at the root of Iranian power. The threat to destroy not only the nuclear program but also "its military posture and perhaps oil terminals" indicates a willingness to hit the regime at the core of its ability to sustain its regional agenda.

• The Russia-China-Iran Axis: Challenging American Hegemony The "unlimited" friendship proclaimed by Moscow and Beijing before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has shaped a new global landscape, aiming to exert maximum pressure on the United States and its allies. Iran has become a key partner in this axis.

  • Russia: Benefits from the chaos in the Middle East, which aims to destabilize the pro-American architecture ensuring the flow of oil (over 30% of Persian Gulf oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz). A blockade or attack on this strait would send oil prices soaring to over $150 a barrel, a boon for Russian revenues. Moscow has supplied missile technology to Iran since the 1990s, trained its nuclear engineers, and built reactors like Bushehr. Now, Russia is purchasing thousands of Shahed and Muhajir-6 drones from Iran for the conflict in Ukraine, in exchange for transfers of military technology to Tehran. This exchange strengthens the alliance and Iranian military capabilities, despite international sanctions.

  • China: While not possessing the same projected military power as the United States in the Middle East, China is a significant economic and strategic player. With a military base in Djibouti, near the crucial Bab-el-Mandeb passage, and Iran and Saudi Arabia as its main oil suppliers, Beijing has vital interests in the region's stability. However, as noted, the Chinese Communist Party does not yet have the experience or resources to "credibly dethrone the United States as the dominant actor in the Middle East." Joint statements by Putin and Chinese envoy Zhang Jun, accusing the United States of "failed leadership" and support for Israel, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's assertions that Israel "exceeded its right to self-defense," reflect growing coordination and a shared anti-Western rhetoric. These claims are particularly hypocritical, given China's policies toward Taiwan and the repression of Uyghurs.

• The Message to Allies and Adversaries The harsh US reaction to Iran, described as a "severe punishment" for "unleashing Hezbollah" and causing "unacceptable harm to Israeli civilians," is a clear warning. The current crisis offers Washington a unique opportunity to send an unequivocal message to Moscow and Beijing: "back off – or you will lose Iran." This implies that the United States is prepared to destabilize or even overthrow the Iranian regime if it continues to threaten American interests and those of its allies. The "kleptocratic Shiite jihadist dictatorship," as it's called, may not survive such a combined assault on nuclear, military, and economic infrastructure.

• International Reactions and Legality The attack takes place in a context of increasing international isolation for Iran. The IAEA has censured Tehran for failing to comply with its NPT obligations. The German report mentioned Iran, along with Russia, China, and Turkey, among the main states conducting espionage, cyberattacks, influence operations, and proliferation within Germany. The EU imposed further sanctions on Iran in 2023 and 2024 for the "violent actions of Iranian security forces within the country and support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine." This international framework provides the United States with a certain degree of justification for its actions, presenting them as an attempt to enforce international agreements and ensure regional stability.

Conclusions: The attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is not an isolated event but an element of a broader containment strategy. The objective is twofold: to defuse the Iranian nuclear threat and to weaken Tehran's influence in the Middle East, while simultaneously sending a clear message to Russia and China. The future of the Middle East will largely depend on the United States' ability to sustain this pressure and on the response from Iran and its allies, in a power game that could redefine global balances. The stakes are high, with the risk of escalation that could have repercussions far beyond the region's borders.