Pakistan Negotiates for Hypersonic Missiles with China: A Shifting Strategic Landscape in South Asia Under the Lens of New Accusations and Information Warfare

Introduction

Strategic cooperation between China and Pakistan is intensifying, with Pakistan negotiating the acquisition of advanced hypersonic missile technology, particularly the DF-17 system with HGV DF-ZF. This move aims to counter India's growing missile defense capabilities. Meanwhile, India's deputy army chief, Lt. Gen. Rahul Singh, accused China of providing Islamabad with “real-time intelligence” during the May conflict between Pakistan and India, describing it as a “live laboratory” for testing Chinese weaponry.

French intelligence also revealed Chinese attempts to discredit French Rafale fighters and promote Chinese J-10Cs during the conflict.

China, on the other hand, maintains that its defense cooperation with Pakistan is normal and not directed against third parties, encouraging dialogue between India and Pakistan. Pakistan's dependence on China for armaments is significant, with 81 percent of total imports in the past five years coming from Beijing.

This partnership, which also includes the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with dual-use infrastructure such as the port of Gwadar, is rebalancing regional power and accelerating a potential arms race in South Asia.

Despite the deterrence benefits for Pakistan, concerns arise about its strategic autonomy and regional stability.

Credit Extrema Ratio

Strategic cooperation between China and Pakistan is intensifying, with new revelations suggesting even more direct Chinese involvement in recent regional conflicts. This should come as no surprise, considering how the partnership between China and Pakistan has evolved into a robust and multidimensional alliance, with defense cooperation as a central pillar. Recent statements from India's Deputy Chief of Army Staff and French intelligence reports add a new layer of complexity and tension to this regional dynamic.

In parallel, Pakistan is engaged in negotiations with China for the acquisition of cutting-edge hypersonic missile technology. The focus is on the DF-17 system, which integrates the DF-ZF Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV). This initiative is driven by Pakistan's need to counterbalance India's increasingly robust multi-layered missile defense network. An HGV, as is known, is an advanced re-entry vehicle capable of detaching from a ballistic missile at high altitude and gliding through the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds – exceeding Mach 5 – while performing lateral and evasive maneuvers to neutralize missile defense systems.

India's Deputy Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Rahul Singh, stated on Friday that China had provided Islamabad with "real-time information" on key Indian positions during Pakistan's deadly conflict with its neighbor in May. Singh emphasized the need for urgent upgrades to India's air defense systems in response to this alleged support.

According to Singh, India fought against two adversaries during the four-day conflict in May: Pakistan on the front lines and China providing "all possible support." He cited discussions at the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) level where Pakistan allegedly claimed to know that India's important carrier was ready for action and that it was receiving real-time data from China. While Singh did not explain how India came to know of these inputs, this accusation raises significant concerns. Singh described the Chinese support as a tactic to "kill with a borrowed knife," referring to one of China's Thirty-Six Stratagems, allowing Beijing to inflict harm on a strategic rival without direct involvement. The conflict also allegedly offered China a "live lab" to test its weapons against those manufactured by other countries.

These claims come amidst already tense relations between India and China, following a 2020 border clash that triggered a four-year military standoff. Although tensions had begun to ease after the two countries reached a pact to disengage in October, the new accusations risk reigniting friction. Previously, India had asserted that despite Pakistan's close alliance with China, there was no sign of actual aid from Beijing during the May conflict.

Pakistani officials have denied receiving active support from China in the conflict but have not issued specific statements on the possibility of Beijing providing assistance via satellites and radar during the fighting. India's Chief of Defense Staff downplayed the issue of real-time satellite imagery or other intelligence sharing, stating that such imagery was commercially available and could have been purchased from China or elsewhere.

Beijing, which welcomed the ceasefire in May, has provided considerable economic aid to Pakistan since 2013, with investments and financial support. This assistance adds to Pakistan's already deep asymmetric dependence on China for military technology and aid, as highlighted in a study titled "China Pakistan Strategic Partnership: An Examination of Defense Cooperation and Security Implications," which notes that China accounts for 81% of Pakistan's total arms imports over the past five years.

Information Warfare and Arms Competition

French intelligence investigations have revealed that Chinese diplomats allegedly sought to undermine the reputation of French-made Rafale fighter jets and promote Chinese-built Chengdu J-10C jets during the May conflict between Pakistan and India. According to a French intelligence report, Chinese diplomats worked to publicize the downing of Rafale jets while promoting the superiority of Chinese fighter aircraft. This unnamed intelligence service stated that Beijing was seeking to present its defense industry as a more credible alternative to France and other Western suppliers.

Pakistan claimed to have downed five Indian aircraft, including three Rafales, using Chinese-supplied J-10Cs during fierce air battles in early May. India denied the loss of any planes, asserting that circulating images of a damaged Rafale were from an earlier, unrelated crash. The operation also allegedly involved India destroying Chinese-supplied Pakistani air defense systems. France's Defense Ministry dismissed claims that Rafales were downed, calling it a "concrete effect of disinformation in modern conflicts." China's state-run Global Times tabloid described the intelligence report as "hype."

France's Ministry of the Armed Forces stated in June that by attacking the aircraft, some players sought to undermine the credibility of France and its defense industrial and technological base. The disinformation campaign was therefore not only aimed at an aircraft but more broadly at a national image of strategic autonomy, industrial reliability, and solid partnerships. Wu Jiwei, a spokesperson for the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, manufacturer of the J-20 stealth fighter, commented that both the Rafale and J-10CE are among the world's most advanced fighters, and that "encounters" under specific circumstances "naturally trigger some discussions."

Beijing's Response

When asked to comment on Indian claims that China follows "36 stratagems" to provide all possible support to Pakistan during the India-Pakistan conflict, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Monday that she doesn't know the specifics of the matter. However, she reiterated that China and Pakistan are "traditional friendly neighbors," and defense and security cooperation is part of the normal cooperation between the two countries and is not directed against a third party.

Mao Ning emphasized that both India and Pakistan are important neighbors of China, and that Beijing has been closely following the development of the situation between the two countries, actively promoting peace and negotiation to maintain regional stability. "We welcome and support the efforts of India and Pakistan to properly address their differences through dialogue and consultation and to seek fundamental solutions. China is also willing to continue to play a constructive role to that end," Mao said.

Referring to China-India relations, Mao added that they are indeed at a critical stage of improvement and development. "We are willing to work with the Indian side to promote China-India relations to continue moving forward along a healthy and stable track."

When asked to comment on claims that the China-Pakistan friendship is not aimed at any third party, but that during previous India-Pakistan conflicts, China closely assisted Pakistan at the expense of India, Mao reiterated on Monday that China-Pakistan relations are not directed at any third party, and that China encourages both India and Pakistan to properly resolve differences through dialogue and consultations and jointly uphold regional peace and stability.

Growing Dependence and Strategic Implications

The relationship is characterized by a growing asymmetric dependence, with Pakistan increasingly reliant on Chinese military aid and technology. China exerts greater strategic influence over Pakistan's defense policies, particularly in missile development and naval security. China is Pakistan's primary arms supplier, accounting for approximately 63% of Pakistan's total arms imports between 2010 and 2020. This dependence has increased, with China representing 81% of Pakistan's total arms imports over the past five years. China's arms exports to Pakistan totaled over $5.28 billion between 2018 and 2023, marking a seven percent increase compared to the previous five-year period (2015-2020), when 74% of Pakistan's arms imports came from China.

Pakistan is negotiating with China for the acquisition of advanced hypersonic missile technology, specifically the DF-17 system integrated with the DF-ZF Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV). This move aims to counter India's increasingly formidable multi-layered missile defense network. An HGV is an advanced re-entry vehicle that detaches from a ballistic missile at high altitude and glides through the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds – exceeding Mach 5 – executing lateral and evasive maneuvers to neutralize missile defense systems. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles that follow predictable parabolic arcs, HGVs re-enter the atmosphere on flatter, lower-altitude trajectories, making them much more difficult for radar systems and interceptors to track and neutralize. The Chinese DF-17 has been confirmed as the world's first hypersonic missile system deployed with a glide vehicle, capable of striking targets over 2,500 km away while maintaining maneuverability during descent. China's military aid package to Pakistan includes the J-35A fifth-generation stealth fighter, the HQ-19 long-range missile defense system, and the KJ-500 early warning and control aircraft.

Strategic and Regional Implications

From a geopolitical perspective, the potential transfer of the DF-17 to Pakistan would enable China to strengthen its position in the South Asian strategic architecture, leveraging its advanced weapon systems to tip the regional power equation in Pakistan's favor. The acquisition of HGV technology could provide Pakistan with a crucial advantage in both strategic deterrence and rapid, precise strike capabilities. The missile's 2,000-2,500 km range would place almost all of India's strategic command centers, nuclear infrastructure, and high-value urban targets within minutes of a Pakistani launch.

The system's ability to conduct pre-emptive strikes against India's mobile assets, including Agni-series ballistic missile platforms and Rafale fighter squadrons, would increase Pakistan's strike options in high-intensity conflict scenarios. Regionally, the introduction of hypersonic weapons into Pakistan's arsenal would inject new power into military planning, particularly for contingency operations. The DF-17 could enable Pakistan to implement a decapitation strike doctrine, paralyzing India's command and control infrastructure before retaliatory action could be coordinated, raising the specter of accidental nuclear escalation.

Even in conventional warfare, the DF-17 represents a formidable threat: its maneuverability and speed could neutralize radar nodes and point defense systems in seconds, paving the way for subsequent air and ground attacks. If modified for deployment on naval platforms or road-mobile launchers, the DF-17 could provide Pakistan with a flexible and mobile hypersonic strike force, extremely difficult for Indian or American surveillance systems to track or intercept. The acquisition of the DF-17 would elevate Pakistan's military doctrine within fifth-generation strike warfare, where speed, precision, and first-strike survivability dominate the modern battlefield equation. The most important arms race of the 21st century will not be a matter of missile numbers, but of who strikes first, faster, and with absolute certainty of impact.

Shift in Security Cooperation and the Role of CPEC

Contemporary collaboration between China and Pakistan extends beyond arms sales and joint production, encompassing cybersecurity, intelligence sharing, and counterterrorism operations. Chinese private security firms and intelligence networks are growing in Pakistan under the pretext of securing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC, though initially projected as an economic initiative, is evolving into a military-strategic corridor. Dual-use infrastructure such as Gwadar Port, a key CPEC project, could enable future Chinese naval deployments, strengthening China's maritime position in the Indian Ocean.

Pakistan is emerging as a crucial partner in China's Indo-Pacific strategy, acting as a regional outpost for Chinese influence. China's growing military footprint in Pakistan enhances its ability to monitor U.S. and Indian naval movements in the Arabian Sea.

Risks and Challenges

Pakistan's over-reliance on Chinese defense technology, including fighter jets, submarines, and missile systems, may reduce its military diversification options. Unlike past decades when Pakistan balanced its imports between China and the West, current Western restrictions have made Pakistan almost entirely reliant on China. This increasing interdependence in defense between China and Pakistan is accelerating India's military modernization, potentially triggering an arms race in South Asia. Increasing military alliances risk creating heightened strategic competition, destabilizing the region.

Furthermore, China's indirect support for Pakistan's nuclear deterrence, particularly through missile technology assistance, remains a crucial, albeit often understated, element of their defense relationship. Pakistan also serves as a testing ground for China's new military exports, including advanced drones, fighter jets, and naval vessels. In recent decades, China has progressively asserted greater autonomy over its military footprint in Pakistan. This includes the establishment of Chinese-controlled security zones near CPEC sites, which operate with limited Pakistani oversight.