There are signs that Russia is seeking to cooperate with China in developing the Arctic route. In May this year, China and Russia agreed to set up a committee to "promote the development of the Arctic route into an important international transport corridor" and increase shipping and infrastructure
According to the Hong Kong "South China Morning Post" report on July 2, Russia is currently seeking cooperation with China to develop the 5,600-kilometer Arctic route extending from the Kara Sea on the northwest coast of Siberia to the Bering Strait into a year-round navigable route.
However, many scholars mentioned that for China, the development of the Arctic route will face difficulties such as lack of infrastructure, geopolitical conflicts, and long-arm jurisdiction of the United States and the West. Among them, a Russian scholar believes that China and Russia can choose to avoid the Bering Strait and connect China with the Arctic route by developing Siberian rivers. "If this is achieved, China and Russia can connect Asia and the Arctic Ocean and then be free from interference from the United States."
The report said that due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and international sanctions, Russia hopes to develop the Arctic route into a year-round navigation route. In addition, as more and more Arctic ice melts, this route may eventually extend to the Scandinavian Peninsula.
Some Russian media said that once the development is completed, the sailing time between Europe and Asia may be shortened by nearly half: a ship will take about 20 days to travel from Shanghai to St. Petersburg through this waterway, while it will take about 36 days to travel through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. However, although some Russian ships are already using this waterway due to global warming, it is limited to about 20 to 30 days a year.
According to data from the Rosatom, 80 ships passed through the Arctic route last year, with a total tonnage of just over 36 million tons; in contrast, more than 26,000 ships passed through the Suez Canal. Russia hopes that by 2035, the cargo volume on this route can reach 270 million tons, nearly 10 times more than in 2022.
There are signs that Russia is seeking to cooperate with China in developing the Arctic route. In May this year, China and Russia agreed to set up a committee to "promote the development of the Arctic route into an important international transport corridor" and increase shipping and infrastructure.
At the same time, due to the increasing international geopolitical tensions and the long-term drought, maritime transport through the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal has been affected. The situation in the South China Sea is tense, and the "Malacca Dilemma" (if a regional crisis occurs, the United States may block the Malacca Strait) has once again aroused external concerns.
The South China Morning Post said that more than 60% of China's trade volume depends on maritime transport, and the development of the Arctic route may help offset the risks of using existing routes. However, many international experts and scholars believe that "Russia is more motivated than China" in this matter, because for China, the development of the Arctic route will face difficulties such as lack of infrastructure, geopolitical conflicts, and international sanctions.
Zhao Long, a senior researcher at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said that in the face of the deepening Red Sea crisis, China could help "explore the economic, technical and environmental feasibility of the Arctic route as a 'complementary corridor' for international transportation." He added that while developing the Arctic route could also promote Sino-Russian cooperation in areas such as infrastructure, shipbuilding and energy exploration, the benefits of this event to China should not be exaggerated.
Wang Yue, a doctoral researcher at the University of Tampere in Finland who specializes in Arctic security and geopolitics, said frankly that the two countries attach "greatly different" importance to this route. He said: " For Russia, the Arctic region is the most important strategic and economic priority, and the Arctic route is crucial for transporting its rich Arctic resources to the market; for China, the Arctic is just one of many emerging strategic regions, and the Arctic route is just a valuable alternative to traditional routes. "
Wang Yue said there are still major obstacles to overcome in developing the route, including the harsh environment, short shipping windows, lack of professional equipment and infrastructure, and the risk of "long-arm jurisdiction" from Western countries. He said he looks forward to further cooperation between the two countries on the development of the Arctic route, "but its extent and significance remain uncertain in the foreseeable future."
The South China Morning Post also mentioned that Russia’s sensitivity to the Arctic region also brings a certain degree of uncertainty to the development of the Arctic route. The report said: “At present, Russia is still deeply suspicious of foreign intervention in Arctic affairs, especially interference from non-Arctic countries.”
Artyom Lukin, an associate professor at the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia, also pointed out that currently, fuel is the main cargo transported through the Arctic region, and given China's net zero emissions goals, it is unclear how much interest China has in developing the region's oil resources.
Lukin mentioned that the proposed new route through the Bering Strait may not solve the "Malacca Dilemma". To avoid the possibility of the United States blocking the Bering Strait in the future, China and Russia can turn to developing waterways in Eurasia and connect China to the Arctic route through Siberian rivers. He said that this will be very expensive, but "once it is realized, China and Russia will be able to connect Asia and the Arctic Ocean without interference from the United States."
Regarding the Sino-Russian cooperation on the Arctic project, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Mao Ning, recently responded that China and Russia should carry out normal economic and trade cooperation on the basis of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit, which should not be interfered with or restricted by any third party. Facts have proved that sanctions and pressure cannot solve problems, but will cause spillover effects. China has always opposed unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction that are not based on international law and authorized by the Security Council. China and Russia will continue to carry out normal economic and trade cooperation in the spirit of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit.
Source Guancha
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