The Chinese Move in the Balkans: Why Europe's “Good Neighbor” Policy Is Collapsing

The upcoming “Peace Guardian 2025” military exercise between China and Serbia reveals the stark reality: while the EU becomes entangled in an ineffective Balkan policy, Beijing consolidates its influence. Serbia, now firmly linked to China by military, economic and strategic agreements, highlights the European failure to keep the region in its sphere of influence. Brussels' inaction and short-sightedness have created a vacuum that Chinese expansionism is filling with pragmatism and decisiveness, turning the Balkans into an outpost of an Asian superpower

The announcement of the joint military exercise "Peace Guardian 2025" between China and Serbia, the first of its kind, represents an unequivocal signal of the strengthening ties between Beijing and Belgrade. While this collaboration extends from defense to the economy, the European Union continues to demonstrate an ineffective and slow accession policy in the Western Balkans, leaving a vacuum that China is rapidly and strategically filling. The growing Chinese presence in Serbia, highlighted by trade agreements, infrastructure investments, and high-level military supplies, positions Beijing as a dominant player in a geopolitically crucial region, challenging European influence and its ability to project stability in its immediate neighborhood.

The Sino-Serbian Axis: A Multidimensional Strengthening

The collaboration between China and Serbia transcends the mere military sphere. The "Peace Guardian 2025" exercise, which will see elite special forces from both nations engaged on Chinese territory, is just the latest piece in a rapidly evolving partnership. As early as 2022, China delivered HQ-22 SAM missiles to Serbia via an unprecedented mass airlift to Europe, followed by sales of FK-3 missile systems and CH-95 and CH-92A drones. Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Milos Vucevic has openly acknowledged the significant strengthening of his country's defensive capabilities thanks to Chinese equipment. This military exchange is not an isolated event but is part of a framework of deep strategic understanding, as reiterated by President Xi Jinping, who called Serbia an "unbreakable friend" and promised support for its territorial sovereignty, particularly relevant in the context of tensions with Kosovo.

On the economic front, the data is equally eloquent. In 2024, the volume of bilateral trade reached 5.73 billion US dollars, with an annual increase of 31.8%. China is now Serbia's second-largest trading partner. This economic expansion is formalized by a wide range of agreements, including a "Free Trade Agreement," investment protection agreements, double taxation avoidance agreements, and understandings on cooperation in vital sectors such as infrastructure, energy, mining, digital economy, healthcare, and public security. Serbia is a strategic hub of China's "Belt and Road" initiative, with key infrastructure projects like the Hungary-Serbia railway. This network of agreements, culminating in the recent signing of 29 bilateral understandings and a joint declaration for a "comprehensive strategic partnership," outlines a deep and continuously growing integration between the two countries.

The EU's Balkan Policy: Inadequacy and Inertia

In stark contrast to the dynamism of the Chinese approach, the European Union's policy in the Western Balkans appears insufficient and intrinsically problematic. Serbia's EU accession process, initiated with the Stabilization and Association Agreement in 2008 and the membership application in 2009, has dragged on for years in a bureaucratic limbo. The exasperating slowness and the complexity of the conditions imposed have generated frustration and a sense of stagnation in Belgrade.

Recent European initiatives, such as the 6 billion euro "Reform and Growth Facility" proposed in November 2023, while representing an increase in funds, do not seem to have a significant impact. The European Court of Auditors has expressed doubts about their effectiveness, criticizing the lack of ambition in the conditions and the insufficient clarity of the indicators, as well as noting the weak administrative capacity of the region. This internal criticism highlights a structural deficit in the European strategy: the inability to translate intentions into rapid and decisive actions that can compete with China's pragmatic and results-oriented approach. The persistent policy of "appeasement" towards Serbia, considered crucial for regional stability, has not yielded the expected results; instead, it has allowed other actors to gain ground.

The Balkans: A Contested Geopolitical Crossroads

The Balkans represent an area of fundamental geopolitical importance, often referred to as the "meeting point between East and West." The "Morava-Vardar Valley," in particular, constitutes a strategic corridor connecting the Pannonian Plain with the Mediterranean and Black Seas, serving as a crucial transit route for trade and political influences between Asia and Europe. Serbia, located at the center of this region, controls a series of vital passages towards the Rhine, the Adriatic, the Aegean, and the Black Sea.

While Zbigniew Brzezinski, in the 1990s, described the Balkans as "unstable" and prone to "attracting and inducing invasions by their more powerful neighbors," the current scenario sees China acting with a targeted strategy to consolidate its presence. Beijing is exploiting the power vacuum and the frustration generated by European policy to establish itself as a stabilizing force and a key partner. This Chinese activism, which includes not only investments and trade but also significant military cooperation, suggests that the Eurasian "Great Game" of geopolitics is evolving in ways that Europe struggles to comprehend and effectively counter. The Belt and Road Initiative, far from being merely an economic project, is a powerful tool for projecting influence that is redefining connections between Europe and Asia, with Serbia as a key outpost.

Conclusions: The Urgency of a New European Strategy

Serbia, weary of unfulfilled promises and Western pressure, is increasingly gravitating towards the Chinese orbit. Its aspiration for EU membership appears more and more like a mirage in the face of the tangible partnerships offered by Beijing. If the European Union is unable to formulate a more realistic, effective, and mutually beneficial strategy for the Western Balkans, it risks passively witnessing the definitive integration of these countries into alternative spheres of influence. The danger is not just the loss of a "backyard" but the compromising of its own security and geopolitical relevance in a continent that is rapidly redrawing its alliances and dependencies.