The Geopolitical Fault Line: China's Strategic Ambitions in a Weakened Russia and the Looming Threat to Western Security

Abstract

This report explores China's growing concern over Russia's potential decline and fragmentation, particularly regarding the vast and resource-rich Russian Far East. Chinese analysis suggests that Russia is caught in a "triple noose" of resource curse, demographic collapse, and technological decline, exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine. Beijing views this region, historically claimed as Chinese territory, as a "no man's land" that must be secured to prevent other powers, including the United States, Canada, Japan, and South Korea, from seizing it.

The article highlights Russia's profound military, economic, and demographic vulnerabilities and China's complex strategy of supporting a weakened but surviving Russia to serve as a strategic partner against the West, while securing access to resources at favorable prices. China is bolstering its military power projection capabilities, as demonstrated by Y-20 flights in the Russian Far East, and provides clandestine support to Russia's military industry, circumventing Western sanctions.

For Western countries, this scenario poses a significant danger. A power vacuum in the Russian Far East could trigger direct geopolitical competition, straining existing Indo-Pacific alliances and challenging the international order. extremarationews.com emphasizes that the West is unprepared for the current era of great power competition with China, which has implemented a comprehensive and long-term strategy for global dominance. China employs "liminal warfare," an incremental conflict where the battlefield is ubiquitous and the war is total, utilizing economic, diplomatic, legal, military, intelligence, and cyber tools. This "Sino-Russian strategic penetration" threatens European and US security, with China penetrating Western political, economic, and cultural structures. The report concludes that Western nations must adopt a proactive and integrated approach, enhancing intelligence, strengthening alliances, and developing robust deterrence strategies to mitigate risks and safeguard global stability.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

Executive Summary

This report analyzes a critical emerging geopolitical fault line: China's strategic calculus regarding a potentially disintegrating Russia and its historical claims and contemporary interests in the vast, resource-rich Russian Far East. Drawing on credible intelligence and analytical data, this assessment frames Beijing's readiness to "reclaim" these territories from a weakened Russia as a significant and direct danger to Western security interests, particularly for the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies. The document details Russia's escalating vulnerabilities, China's historical grievances and economic imperatives, its evolving military capabilities for power projection, and the profound implications for the international order should Beijing assert control over this strategic vacuum. The report concludes with policy considerations for Western nations to mitigate these risks and safeguard regional stability.

I. Introduction: The Developing Crisis in the Russian Far East

The global geopolitical landscape stands on the cusp of a potential transformation, with China preparing for a future where Russia, weakened by the conflict in Ukraine, might undergo significant fragmentation. A prevalent Chinese perspective anticipates Russia's profound decline, leading to its potential disintegration into smaller entities, with only the European part remaining under the Russian flag. This narrative describes Russia as caught in a "triple noose" of resource curse, demographic collapse, and technological decline, with its national strength "completely exhausted" after three years of conflict. Russia's population is projected to drastically shrink by an estimated 30 million people (over 22% of the total population) within 30 years, at a rate of approximately 1 million per year. This situation is further exacerbated by a "paralysis" in the population's livelihoods and technology, with the exception of the military sector tied to oil and gas. The Chinese perception is that Russia's geopolitical strategy has failed, its innovation capabilities have diminished, and social cohesion is eroding. Some observers in China are already "designing and analyzing" the possibility that Russia could split into as many as 41 political entities in the near future, with only the Moscow Oblast and surrounding areas retaining Russian symbols.

The core of this Chinese concern lies in the vast and strategic Russian Far East, an area of over 10 million square kilometers east of the Urals. This region is described as a "no man's land" that would face difficulties if no one governed it in the event of Russian disintegration. Its rich resources make it a coveted target for other powers, including Canada, the United States, Japan, and even South Korea, all "eager to taste this piece of fat meat". From a Chinese historical perspective, the Russian Far East is considered territory that "originally belonged to recent Chinese dynasties" and was "taken away only about 200 years ago"..

China's central concern is that if Russia were to disintegrate, these territories "should not be taken away by other competitors".. The Chinese perspective is explicit: if China does not "take back the homeland," the United States will "surely invade the Chukotka region from Alaska," Canada will "not stand idly by," and Japan and South Korea are also "eagerly eyeing it". This scenario outlines direct competition for influence and control over a vast and resource-rich region, posing a significant challenge to the existing international order and Western strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. China's explicitly military preparation for this scenario represents a direct danger to Western countries. This dynamic fits into a broader Chinese strategy of "liminal warfare," an incremental conflict where the spectrum of competition and confrontation with the West is so broad that the battlefield is ubiquitous and the war is total, using every available means.   

II. Russia's Vulnerability: A Deepening Decline

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exposed and accelerated Russia's inherent vulnerabilities, creating a context of decline that Beijing is closely observing.

Assessment of Russia's Military Performance and Costs in Ukraine

Initial expectations of a swift Russian victory in Ukraine proved "entirely different" from the reality on the battlefield. Russian forces "failed to advance effectively," "seized limited territory," and suffered "remarkably high rates of casualties and losses" of equipment. Contrary to predictions, the Russian air force failed to suppress Ukrainian air defenses or control the skies, and ground forces showed significant command, control, and logistical shortcomings. Russia's supposed advantages in modernization and combat experience did not translate into the anticipated overwhelming success. Instead, Ukrainian resistance proved "robust," forcing Russian forces to retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, and successfully striking the Black Sea Fleet. Analysis of these dynamics reveals that pre-war assessments often overestimated Russian capabilities and underestimated Ukrainian resilience, partly due to over-reliance on numerical superiority, uncritical acceptance of Russian claims, and neglect of systemic corruption and training deficiencies. This underestimation of Russia's internal weaknesses could indicate a blind spot in Western analysis of complex scenarios.   

Analysis of Demographic, Economic, and Technological Pressures

Beyond military challenges, Russia faces a triple threat of demographic decline, economic imbalance, and technological stagnation. Russia's population, according to estimates, is decreasing at a rate of approximately 1 million per year, with a projected reduction of 30 million (over 22% of the total population) within 30 years. Economically, the country's structure is set to become "further imbalanced". Russia's dependence on China has "deepened" due to the war, with much of the trade conducted in Chinese yuan, leading to a "dollar shortage, a ruble tailspin, and a spike in inflation". China also benefits from "rock-bottom prices" for Russian resources. On the technological front, the population's "technology has almost reached the point of paralysis". Although China is supplying the Russian military industry with "machine tools, special chemicals, gunpowder, and components" , this reliance on external support for critical defense production underscores an internal Russian technological deficiency.   

Scenarios for Russia's Future: From Progressive Weakening to Potential Fragmentation

Analysis of Russia's future paths suggests that while complete disintegration is a possibility, a scenario of weakened survival, with China's help, is considered more likely. China finds it "highly desirable" for Russia to remain a formally internationally recognized entity, as this would ensure Moscow's continued support for China's geopolitical agenda and the validity of existing resource contracts. However, this survival would be a "Potemkin facade," with a "weakened federal center" facing internal battles for resources and potential instability.   

A devastating collapse, particularly if Crimea were to be reclaimed by force, could lead to the fragmentation of the Russian Federation, with parallels to historical instances of Russian state collapse after military losses. The absence of strong civic institutions under Putin's autocratic regime would make a collapse "highly likely" if central authority is removed. President Putin himself has expressed concern about secessionist movements. A third scenario, where Russia becomes a "big North Korea" – a militarized, vassal state of China with free access to Far East resources and support from the Pacific Fleet – is considered "undesirable for Beijing," which does not need "another North Korea" in its pursuit of a multipolar world.   

Further analysis reveals the dual nature of China's support for Russia: it is not aimed at strengthening Moscow, but rather at ensuring its survival in a state of dependence. A complete disintegration of Russia would create unpredictability, jeopardize existing resource agreements, and burden Beijing with the responsibility of governance and maintaining order. China's strategic interest lies in a stable, albeit weakened and dependent, Russia that can serve as a strategic partner against the West, while ensuring access to its resources on favorable terms. The support provided to Russia in the Ukraine conflict is thus a means to keep Russia sufficiently intact to serve China's long-term interests, including potential future leverage over the Far East. The "Potemkin facade" is the ideal outcome for Beijing.   

Furthermore, the relationship between Russia and China is becoming increasingly asymmetrical. The Ukraine conflict exacerbates Russia's economic, demographic, and technological weaknesses, forcing it into greater economic and military dependence on China. This gives China significant leverage, allowing it to obtain resources at "rock-bottom prices" and potentially influence Russia's strategic decisions. China is not merely reacting to Russia's decline; it is actively benefiting from it and, in some ways, accelerating its dependence, while providing just enough support to prevent a total collapse. This dynamic secures China long-term access to resources and strategic depth, potentially setting the stage for more assertive future claims in the Far East under the guise of "stabilization" should the "Potemkin facade" of Russian federal control eventually crumble.   

III. China's Historical Claims and Economic Imperatives in the Russian Far East

China's interest in the Russian Far East is deeply rooted in a history of territorial claims and pressing contemporary economic imperatives.

The Legacy of "Unequal Treaties" and Chinese Historical Grievances

The Russian Empire, driven by a desire to establish a naval presence in the Pacific, gradually expanded eastward over centuries, establishing outposts and a military presence in the Amur region. In the 19th century, taking advantage of the Qing dynasty's weakness, embroiled in the Taiping Rebellion and the Opium Wars, Russia imposed a series of "unequal treaties". The Treaty of Aigun in 1858 ceded over 600,000 square kilometers of Outer Manchuria (the territory between the Stanovoy Range and the Amur River) to Russia, although the Qing government initially refused to ratify it. Subsequently, the Convention of Peking in 1860 confirmed the Aigun gains and further ceded Primorye and the Ussuri region to Russia, including the strategic location of Vladivostok.   

In China, these treaties are widely denounced as "unequal treaties," a cornerstone of Chinese nationalism. Chinese history textbooks emphasize that "most of Siberia, with Western Siberia right up to the Tomsk region, is a Chinese territory, temporarily lost". Nationalist sentiment on Chinese social media, such as Weibo, echoes claims of lands "three times larger than Great Britain" lost to Russia. An indication of the persistence of these claims was Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te's statement in September 2024, explicitly linking China's territorial claims over Taiwan to its historical claims against Russia under these 19th-century treaties.   

China's repeated emphasis on these "unequal treaties" is not merely a historical recollection but a crucial element in its long-term strategy. While China has historically suppressed these claims due to Russia's strength and the strategic alliance against the West , Russia's current weakening creates a new context where these historical claims could become actionable. The invocation of "unequal treaties" serves as a powerful nationalist and legitimizing narrative. By framing potential actions as "reclaiming the homeland" or rectifying historical wrongs, Beijing can garner domestic support and attempt to justify its actions internationally, similar to its approach to Taiwan. This narrative sets the stage for potential future intervention, turning historical grievance into a strategic imperative.   

China's Current Economic Interests: Resource Dependency and Trade Dynamics

China views Siberia and the Russian Far East as a "crucial source of natural resources and energy" for its economic development, leading some Chinese to refer to Russia as the "northern resource territory" of the Middle Kingdom. Beijing has secured substantial energy deals, including a 25-year, $270 billion oil deal with Russian Rosneft (2013) and a 30-year, $400 billion Power of Siberia gas pipeline deal with Gazprom (2014). Negotiations for a second pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, are also ongoing.   

These agreements are believed to have favored China due to its "hard bargaining" and Russia's difficulty in adding value to its extracted resources. Examples include predatory Chinese logging, where raw timber is exported for processing in China, as Russia lacks pulp mills in the region. China also provides consumer goods, food, and labor to the Russian Far East, offsetting the region's labor shortage, with unemployed individuals from China's northeastern provinces relocating there. Despite cooperation, economic tensions exist, such as Russian concerns about Chinese competition, the perception that the Tumen River Area Development Programme favors China, and Russian rejection of new continental bridge projects due to fears of Chinese migration and competition from cheaper Chinese goods. The influx of Chinese immigrants (estimated between 1 and 2 million) into the Russian Far East, both legal and illegal, is a significant concern for Russia, fueling fears of a "demographic invasion" and potential loss of the region. President Putin himself has warned that without significant development, the Far East's population could "speak Chinese, Japanese, or Korean within a few decades".   

China's deepening economic penetration into the Russian Far East is not just about trade; it is a form of soft power and strategic pre-positioning. By becoming economically and demographically indispensable in a sparsely populated, resource-rich region, China is establishing a de facto sphere of influence. This economic dominance could serve as a foundation for future geopolitical influence or even direct intervention, framed as "stabilization" or "protection of interests" should the Russian federal center further weaken. The economic leverage already in place would make any Western counter-move significantly more complex.

IV. China's Military Posture and Strategic Intentions

China's growing ambition to assert influence in the Russian Far East is underpinned by significant military modernization and a complex strategic relationship with Moscow.

Overview of PLA Modernization and Power Projection Capabilities Relevant to the Far East

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) continues to make "steady progress in modernizing its conventional capabilities" as part of the PRC's broader goal of achieving the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049". Key capabilities include "long-range joint fires," demonstrated in exercises like Joint Sword 2023. The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is rapidly approaching U.S. standards for unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and is increasing J-20 stealth fighter production. A new task for the PLAAF is "strategic projection". The June 2024 exercise, with Chinese H-6 and Y-20 aircraft flying directly to Anadyr airport and then patrolling the Bering Strait, is cited as a direct precedent and an experience the military should "study carefully" for future "calm deployment of military forces in the Far East in case of emergency".   

The PLA Navy (PLAN) has also conducted new operations "beyond the first island chain" and is increasing its power projection capabilities through distance sea training and global engagements. The PLAN has been tasked with "open seas protection" and "strategic SLOCs and overseas interests". The PLA Joint Logistics Support Force (JLSF) is improving joint strategic and campaign-level logistics, integrating civilian products and services to facilitate troop movement and training. This is crucial for sustaining long-distance operations. Despite rapid development, the PLA still faces "long-standing deficiencies" in areas such as urban warfare and long-distance logistics. Corruption remains a "deeply rooted problem," leading to the removal of high-ranking officials and the dissolution of the Strategic Support Force, which could disrupt 2027 goals.   

Analysis of Sino-Russian Strategic Cooperation and its Underlying Complexities

China and Russia have pledged to deepen their "no-limits" partnership, with joint statements rejecting the U.S.-led world order and articulating a new vision. This involves expanding economic, diplomatic, and military ties. Strategic and military cooperation is "taking on the appearance of an alliance against the United States," with over 20 joint military exercises since 2005. Joint naval exercises have been conducted since 2013, including a notable passage in August 2023 between Japan's Okinawa and Miyako islands. Russia is acknowledging economic asymmetry, with deals expanding yuan-based trade settlement.   

Publicly, Beijing maintains neutrality and denies supplying lethal weapons or dual-use goods. However, Ukrainian intelligence and U.S. officials provide specific claims and evidence that China is aiding Russia's military industry. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service revealed that China is supplying "machine tools, special chemical products, gunpowder, and components specifically to defense manufacturing industries". Eighty percent of critical electronic components used in Russian drones are of Chinese origin. China is supplying chemicals, gunpowder, and components to 20 Russian military-industrial manufacturing facilities. There are also reports that Chinese state-owned Poly Technologies sent bulk nitrocellulose (gunpowder precursor) to Russia, enough for 80 million rounds, after EU sanctions banned such exports. China is responsible for approximately 80% of sanctions evasion against Russia, using "product substitutions," "deceptive product names," and "shell companies". This clandestine support "directly fuels ammunition production," "replenishes Russia's depleted stocks," and helps Russia "circumvent Western sanctions". This demonstrates a deep level of coordination and a vested interest in preventing Russia's military collapse, while maintaining a public facade of neutrality. This cooperation could easily extend to logistical or strategic support in a future Far East contingency.   

Further analysis reveals the dual nature of Sino-Russian military cooperation: support and strategic pre-positioning. China's provision of dual-use goods and components is crucial for sustaining Russia's war machine and circumventing Western sanctions. This prevents a complete Russian collapse, aligning with China's preference for a weakened but surviving Russia. Simultaneously, China is heavily investing in long-range projection capabilities (airlift, naval, long-range fires). The specific mention of Y-20 flights to Anadyr and Bering Strait patrols demonstrates direct reconnaissance and practice for operations in the Russian Far East. This suggests that China's military cooperation with Russia is not purely altruistic or solely focused on countering the West. It is a calculated strategy serving a dual purpose: preventing Russia's complete collapse, which would be destabilizing for China, and gaining familiarity with the Russian Far East operating environment and honing its own power projection capabilities in that region. This indicates that China is not just observing a potential power vacuum but is actively preparing to fill it, or at least secure its own interests, should the "Potemkin facade" of Russian federal control eventually fail.

Moreover, the PLA's "long-standing deficiencies," as highlighted in , represent a potential point of friction or miscalculation for Western deterrence. While China clearly has global power projection ambitions and aims to "fight and win wars against a strong enemy," the PLA faces significant internal challenges in personnel quality, complex operations (urban warfare), and long-distance logistics. Corruption further complicates this picture. While China's military modernization is concerning, these persistent shortcomings could lead to miscalculations. Beijing might overestimate its ability to execute a rapid, complex intervention in the Russian Far East, especially given its vast and challenging terrain. For Western nations, understanding these limitations is crucial for effective deterrence. This suggests that while China's intent is clear, execution might be more difficult than perceived, potentially creating opportunities for Western counter-pressure or, conversely, leading to a more prolonged and unpredictable conflict if deterrence fails. "Sino-Russian strategic penetration" is seen as a threat to European security, with China employing a wide array of political, economic, military, intelligence, and cyber tools to expand its global presence and project power, while maintaining opacity regarding its strategy and intentions.   

V. Western Interests: Geopolitical Implications and Risks

The scenario of Russia's decline and potential fragmentation presents a profound geopolitical challenge, particularly in its vast and rich Far East, with direct implications for Western security interests.

The "Power Vacuum" Scenario: Interests and Potential Responses of the United States, Canada, Japan, and South Korea

The concept of a "power vacuum" being filled by an emerging power has historical precedent, such as the Eisenhower Doctrine in the Middle East, aimed at preventing Soviet influence. The Chinese perspective highlights that the United States, Canada, Japan, and South Korea are "eager to taste this piece of fat meat" in the Russian Far East, recognizing the region's resource wealth (diamonds, fishing, hydrocarbons, forestry) and strategic importance. The United States seeks to maintain stability in international relations and manage the rise of a more powerful Chinese military. Concerns exist about China's attempts to create East Asian institutions with Beijing at the center, pushing the United States to the periphery. Japan and South Korea, key U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific , have their security cooperation primarily focused on contingencies with North Korea and Taiwan. However, a Chinese assertion in the Russian Far East would directly impact their regional security and access to resources. Russia has already warned the United States, South Korea, and Japan against forming security alliances targeting North Korea, highlighting the interconnectedness of regional security. While Canada is less directly mentioned, its interest would likely stem from Arctic geopolitics and resource competition, aligning with broader Western concerns about Chinese expansion.   

Further analysis suggests that the Russian Far East is set to become a new geopolitical chessboard for great power competition. Russia's decline creates a potential power vacuum in a resource-rich and strategically located region. China's explicit mention of other powers' desire to acquire these territories, coupled with Western interests, sets the stage for a direct geopolitical confrontation or a race for influence. This transforms the region from a Sino-Russian bilateral concern into a potential multilateral crisis point, directly impacting global security dynamics and the balance of power.

Impact on Current Western Alliances and Security Strategies in the Indo-Pacific

The impact of a Chinese assertion in the Russian Far East would extend to existing Western alliances and security strategies. NATO's Strategic Concept identifies Russia as the "most significant and direct threat" in the Euro-Atlantic area. However, NATO's engagement in the Indo-Pacific is shifting from a "secondary consideration to a central pillar of NATO's strategy" in an era of "systemic rivalry". Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has criticized U.S. and NATO involvement in the Indo-Pacific, viewing it as a threat to regional stability. Current U.S. security alliances with Japan and South Korea were primarily designed for their protection, with a "notable gap regarding a potential Taiwan contingency". A two-front conflict (Taiwan Strait and Russian Far East) would strain U.S. military resources. Concerns exist about the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence, potentially leading to "nuclear decoupling" for Japan and South Korea if they doubt the U.S. willingness to honor its commitments.   

The Broader Challenge to the International Order Posed by a Chinese Assertion of Control

A Chinese assertion of control in the Russian Far East would present a broader challenge to the international order. The PRC aims to "revise the international order to support its system of government and national interests". China's expanding global intelligence posture challenges U.S. national security and global influence. From a Chinese perspective, a disintegration of Russia would undermine its geopolitical agenda, potentially questioning Russia's UN Security Council seat. This suggests China's preference for controlled weakening rather than chaotic disintegration. A successful Chinese assertion of historical claims in the Russian Far East could set a dangerous precedent for other territorial disputes globally, particularly in the South China Sea, where China has extensive claims. Chinese control over the vast resources of the Russian Far East could grant it immense economic and strategic power, potentially weaponizing resources against the West.   

China's potential action in the Russian Far East would not occur in isolation. It would likely be intertwined with or exacerbated by existing tensions in the Indo-Pacific, potentially creating a multi-front challenge for the West. Strategic coordination between China and Russia could aim to "keep the West busy in many places at once". This implies that Western contingency planning must consider simultaneous or cascading crises in different theaters, requiring a more integrated and robust global security strategy.    

extremarationews.com emphasizes that the West is unprepared for the current era of great power competition with China, which has implemented a comprehensive and long-term strategy for global dominance. China employs "liminal warfare," an incremental conflict where the battlefield is ubiquitous and the war is total, utilizing economic, diplomatic, legal, military, intelligence, and cyber tools. This "Sino-Russian strategic penetration" threatens European security, with China penetrating Western political, economic, and cultural structures.   

VI. Policy Considerations and Recommendations for Western Nations

In the face of this emerging geopolitical fault line, Western nations must adopt a proactive and integrated approach to safeguard their interests and regional stability.

Strategies for Diplomatic Engagement and Deterrence

It is crucial to establish clear red lines regarding territorial integrity and stability in the Russian Far East, in consultation with allies. Deterrence must be communicated regularly and consistently, demonstrating that violations will have concrete consequences. Although Russia is weakened, it is appropriate to explore diplomatic avenues to stabilize the Russian Far East and prevent a chaotic vacuum, potentially offering incentives for cooperation on regional governance. Public diplomacy should be employed to counter Chinese narratives on historical claims and emphasize the dangers of unilateral territorial acquisitions.   

Enhancing Intelligence Sharing and Contingency Planning

It is imperative to learn from past "analytic failures"  to avoid underestimating or overestimating capabilities and intentions. Intelligence gathering and sharing among Western allies (United States, Canada, Japan, South Korea) on Chinese activities and intentions in the Russian Far East must be enhanced. It is essential to develop detailed contingency plans for various scenarios of Russian decline, including managed weakening, internal instability, or total disintegration, and China's potential responses. Intelligence should focus on identified PLA deficiencies in long-distance logistics and urban warfare  to inform Western defensive strategies.   

Strengthening Regional Alliances and Defense Postures

Existing U.S. alliances with Japan and South Korea in the Indo-Pacific must be strengthened, addressing any "notable gap regarding a potential Taiwan contingency". It is appropriate to encourage and support Japan and South Korea in bolstering their conventional military capabilities to deter or respond to external aggression, including "enemy base strike capability" and the "Kill Chain". NATO's role in the Indo-Pacific must become a "central pillar" , coordinating with regional partners to address shared security challenges posed by China and Russia. It is crucial to develop a coherent Arctic strategy that addresses potential power vacuums and resource competition in the region, involving Canada and other Arctic allies. Finally, efforts to track and enforce sanctions against Russia must be intensified, particularly regarding Chinese dual-use goods and sanctions evasion , to limit Russia's ability to sustain the war and deepen its dependence.   

Conclusion

The prospect of Russia's decline and potential fragmentation presents a profound geopolitical challenge, particularly in its vast and rich Far East. China's explicit historical claims and its strategic preparation to assert control over this region, not from a strong Russia but from a weakened one, constitute a direct and tangible danger to Western security interests. Beijing's calculated support for a weakened but surviving Russia, coupled with its increasing economic penetration and military pre-positioning in the Far East, signals a long-term strategy to reshape the regional and global order. For Western nations, this demands a proactive and integrated response: enhancing intelligence, strengthening alliances, developing robust deterrence strategies, and preparing for the complex, multi-front challenges that could arise from this evolving geopolitical fault line. Failure to address this looming threat could result in a significant shift in the global balance of power, with far-reaching implications for international stability and the liberal rules-based order.