The "Kinmen Method": The New Normal in the Taiwan Strait

Abstract

This article analyzes the August 24 maritime incident off the coast of Kinmen, where Chinese Coast Guard vessels approached within just 4 kilometers of the Taiwanese coastline. The event, while not an armed conflict, represents a clear strategic escalation based on the "Kinmen Method" and the "gray zone tactic," which was already being discussed in an analysis by Extrema Ratio from may 2024. The text explores the tactical and psychological implications of the Chinese actions, the vulnerability of the Taiwanese response, and the broader context of the U.S.-China rivalry, highlighting the growing power imbalance in the Indo-Pacific. The incident symbolizes a profound shift in the Strait's dynamics, where China is gradually eroding Taiwan's sovereignty without resorting to direct conflict.

The Taiwan Strait: The Four Kilometers That Shake the Ice

Off the coast of Kinmen, the calm of the sea has been disturbed not just by waves, but by a growing and silent tension between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. On August 24, a sudden maritime action upset the political balance, casting an unsettling light on the reality of Taiwan’s sovereignty and its capacity to respond.

While authorities in Taipei seemed to be reacting slowly, the Chinese Coast Guard acted decisively, shattering the illusion of the so-called "median line" and approaching within just 4 kilometers of Kinmen island. This was not a simple passing incident, but a clear and calculated projection of force.

The "Invisible Ghost" Tactic

Twice, in the morning and at noon, Chinese Coast Guard vessels 14609 and 14603, two new-generation 3,000-ton ships, entered Kinmen's restricted waters. A crucial aspect of these operations was the deactivation of their AIS (Automatic Identification System), making the ships "invisible" to Taiwan's radar systems. This maneuver, though not new, proved to be extremely effective, allowing the Chinese vessels to act undisturbed, bypassing monitoring systems and highlighting a serious gap in Taiwan's defensive readiness.

The slow response from Taipei, which only mobilized its ships after the second approach and in a disorganized manner, has raised serious doubts about Taiwan's ability to manage a "new normal" of close-quarters encounters. Without firing a single shot, China successfully tested Taiwan's intelligence and reactivity, demonstrating that its maritime defense system is unprepared to handle this low-intensity escalation.

The "Kinmen Method": China's Tactic for Eroding Sovereignty

As early as May 2024, the website ExtremaRatio had identified this emerging strategy from China, naming it the "Kinmen Method." The article described a significant increase in the frequency of Chinese Coast Guard law enforcement patrols in the waters near Kinmen, which Taiwan considers "prohibited and restricted waters."

According to a Chinese military expert cited in the article, this pattern of inspections, which "simultaneously" protects the people of mainland China and Taiwan, could soon be extended to Matsu, Penghu, and even the entire Taiwan Strait. In this scenario, the Chinese Coast Guard claims the right to intervene whenever it believes the rights of Chinese fishermen are being violated, using the "Kinmen Method" to re-establish "order" under Chinese jurisdiction. This strategy is seen as a surreptitious way to appropriate Taiwan's territorial and maritime sovereignty.

The Chinese Coast Guard, with a fleet of over 20 warships, including Type 056 frigates, is now under the direct control of the Central Military Commission chaired by President Xi Jinping. The agency, along with the PLA-N (Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy) and the civilian maritime militia, forms a unified and powerful front that operates in a gray zone between internal security and military force.

Kinmen: Not Just an Island, but an "Exposed Nerve"

Kinmen, located less than 5 kilometers from Xiamen and over 200 kilometers from Taipei, is the focal point of this new strategy. Geographically, it is closer to mainland China than to Taiwan, with which it has close economic and supply ties. This vulnerability makes it the ideal ground for China to implement its "gray zone warfare" strategy.

China's objective is twofold: to test Taiwan's tactical capabilities and to execute a long-term strategic positioning. Through "normalized law enforcement," Beijing is gradually eroding the boundaries of Taiwan's "effective control" and steadily strengthening its presence in Kinmen's waters. The logic is simple but powerful: if you claim sovereignty, you must be able to control it. If you can't, your position doesn't matter. The Chinese Coast Guard's actions, while not strictly military, are designed to undermine the Taiwanese people's trust in their authorities and shift public perception in favor of mainland China.

The Decline of U.S. Power

The Extrema Ratio article contrasts China's growing power with the U.S.'s increasing difficulties in the Indo-Pacific. U.S. military bases in the region severely lack reinforced air protection, making them vulnerable to devastating aerial attacks in a potential conflict with China. Recent war games show that the U.S. would lose 90% of its aircraft on the ground, rather than in aerial combat, due to insufficient base protection. A successful attack on U.S. bases could "immobilize vital air assets, disrupt logistical chains, and significantly weaken our ability to respond in a conflict."

While China has built over 400 reinforced air shelters in the last decade, the U.S. has built only 22 at its bases in Japan and South Korea. Furthermore, U.S. investment in defense and military construction in the Indo-Pacific is considered insufficient, with the Pentagon spending only 2% of its current construction budget on projects in the region.

China's growing maritime dominance is also evident in its shipbuilding capacity, which, according to a congressional report, is 230 times greater than that of the U.S. The U.S. flag fleet has dwindled to fewer than 200 ships, while China boasts more than 7,000 vessels. As Senator Marco Rubio stated, "The competition between the United States and communist China will define the 21st century."

The "New Normal" and the Gray Zone Tactic

The Kinmen incident is part of a broader "new tactical combination" from Beijing. Instead of resorting to guns and artillery, China is applying constant and gradual pressure, eroding Taipei’s authority. This "gray zone tactic," operating below the threshold of open conflict, allows it to advance its objectives without provoking a direct military response or widespread international condemnation.

The "quasi-military" operations of the Coast Guard, with AIS deactivation, fleet entry, and rapid withdrawal, are designed to precisely strike the opponent's weak points. And Kinmen is just the first step. If Taipei continues to lose its ability to respond, China could very well extend these law enforcement actions to Penghu, Matsu, and even the areas surrounding the main island, progressively modifying effective control over the Strait.

Conclusion

The distance of 4 kilometers off the coast of Kinmen is not just a geographical fact. It symbolizes a profound struggle of will and power, where China is reshaping order in the name of "law," and Taiwan appears trapped in chaos. This maritime incident is a clear political signal: the future of the Taiwan Strait may not be decided by a military conflict, but by a series of low-intensity maneuvers that, meter by meter, are reshaping the geography of power in the region.