The New Sino-Russian Alliance: A Pact of Necessity Between the Russian Far East and the Arctic

The partnership between Russia and China, formally defined as "limitless," reveals an intricate game of interests and deep-seated distrust. A leaked report from the Russian intelligence service (FSB) raises suspicions about China, revealing Moscow's underlying concerns. While cooperation for the development of the Russian Far East is presented as a model of mutual benefit, it conceals the historical tensions and geopolitical ambitions of the two giants. The alliance, accelerated by Moscow's isolation following the invasion of Ukraine, is not just about agriculture and resources; it also serves as a foundation for Beijing's strategic expansion into the Arctic. An increasingly desperate Russia might even consider territorial concessions to secure an ally in a crucial region, thereby threatening the international order and creating an inseparable maritime bloc. This text analyzes the complex dynamics of this alliance, from economic promises to subtle power plays, revealing how the game of chess between Moscow and Beijing is reshaping global balances.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

The New Sino-Russian Alliance: A Pact of Necessity Between the Russian Far East and the Arctic

In an increasingly multipolar world, the partnership between Russia and China presents one of the most complex and fascinating geopolitical dynamics. While the two Eurasian giants have forged a "limitless partnership" that spans from economic to military cooperation, deep contradictions and a hidden battle of interests are emerging, as revealed by a secret Federal Security Service (FSB) document obtained by the New York Times in 2025.

This duality is particularly evident in their cooperation to develop the Russian Far East, a resource-rich but historically underdeveloped area. While this project is presented as a symbol of friendship and mutual benefit, it conceals the divergent strategic goals that define the true nature of their relationship.

The Façade of Partnership: Economy and Food Security

The agricultural project in the Russian Far East is the emblem of the "limitless partnership." China, a world leader in smart agriculture and food supply chain technologies, is investing in an area roughly three times the size of Beijing. The benefits appear obvious for both.

• For China: This cooperation is a crucial step for its national food security. In a context of global uncertainty and fluctuating grain prices, being able to cultivate vast fertile lands near its border reduces its dependence on distant and vulnerable imports. The initiative fits perfectly into the northern expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative, filling a strategic gap in the high northern latitudes and providing a new model for resource cooperation and technology transfer in northern Asia and the Arctic.

• For Russia: The influx of Chinese capital, technology, and labor is revitalizing an area that was once considered a "development obstacle" due to its low population density and lack of infrastructure. This allows Russia to diversify its economy, traditionally linked to energy, and consolidate its influence in the region. The agricultural collaboration is a prime example of "complementary cooperation" that serves to strengthen Moscow's alliance with Beijing, especially in response to Western sanctions.

The Alliance of Necessity and Past Promises

The recent acceleration of cooperation in the Far East is a direct result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Before 2022, Moscow was reluctant to grant Beijing a significant role in the region, fearing it would awaken the territorial tensions rooted in history. In the mid-19th century, the weak Qing dynasty ceded nearly 6 million square kilometers of territory to Tsarist Russia, including Outer Manchuria. Although the Soviet Union had promised to return the territories seized under the "Unequal Treaties," the offer was withdrawn once the outcome of the Russian Civil War became clear.

Since coming to power, President Vladimir Putin has tried to resolve these territorial disputes with symbolic gestures, returning a total of 173 square kilometers of land to China on four separate occasions. However, this is just a "drop in the ocean" compared to the vast area originally claimed by Beijing. The Xi Jinping administration has chosen to interpret these gestures as a sign of good faith, ignoring the broader claims so as not to jeopardize the "limitless" alliance aimed at countering the United States.

The situation changed dramatically after February 2022, when Western sanctions forced Russia to turn its economic attention eastward. With the loss of European markets and technology suppliers, the Kremlin realized its war machine could only be sustained with China's help. This made Putin more willing to make significant concessions. His visit to China in May 2024 and the appointment of Andrey Belousov as Minister of Defense marked a reversal: the war in Ukraine could only be won by prioritizing economic and industrial cooperation with Beijing.

The Undercurrent of Distrust: The FSB's Concerns

Behind this image of harmony, the leaked FSB document reveals a disturbing reality: Moscow considers Beijing a threat to national security. Russian distrust is rooted in history and manifests in several concrete concerns.

• Territorial Fears: Russia fears that China may try to annex parts of the Far East, including the port city of Vladivostok. This fear is not unfounded, as Chinese nationalists have long contested the 19th-century treaties. The FSB reports that China is actively seeking to reinforce its historical claims, including by searching for "ancient Chinese peoples" in the region and recently mandating the use of Chinese names for Vladivostok (Haishenwai) and other cities on new maps.

• Espionage and Military Technology: Russian intelligence suspects that Chinese agents are recruiting Russian spies and attempting to acquire sensitive military technologies. The FSB believes China is analyzing Russian operations in Ukraine to learn about Western technology and warfare. The document describes a "tense and continuously developing 'intelligence battle'" taking place in the shadows of the partnership, indicating deep mutual suspicion.

• Divergent Arctic Interests: Chinese intelligence's interest in the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route, which significantly reduces shipping times between Asia and Europe, raises further concerns in Moscow, which sees control of the Arctic as a matter of national sovereignty.

Strategic Objectives and Local Solutions

Beijing sees Russia's change in attitude as a rare opportunity. With vast financial reserves, China aims to:

1. Exploit the rich mineral resources of the Russian Far East to secure a supply chain free from Western influence.

2. Provide equipment and technology to the Russian industry, especially the defense sector, in exchange for valuable military know-how.

Chinese investments are concentrated in two strategic areas: the confluence of the Amur and Ussuri rivers near Khabarovsk, and the area near the mouth of the Tumen River, just 15 kilometers from the Sea of Japan. China's goal is to build two giant special economic zones in these key locations.

Meanwhile, Russia is desperately trying to attract these investments to finance its war effort. China and Russia have delayed the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline for years (a new memorandum was signed in September 2025 during Putin's visit to Beijing) for economic reasons, to avoid becoming overly dependent on Moscow and to secure more favorable prices. While progress on the pipeline has been slow, investments in sectors like technology, infrastructure, and the defense industry are seen as a vital alternative for Russian revenue. Also, cooperation in areas such as the purchase of enriched uranium and the development of local banking solutions to circumvent Western sanctions shows their pragmatic search for mutual benefits.

Perhaps China's biggest priority is gaining direct sea access for its landlocked northeast, an area just 15 kilometers from the Sea of Japan. Opening this waterway, blocked by the Friendship Bridge between Korea and Russia, would give Beijing a strategic presence on the Sea of Japan and could weaken the US defensive barrier on the "first island chain."

A Shadow Over Europe and a Potential Arctic Pact

The growing Sino-Russian partnership in the Far East is not receiving enough attention in the West, but its implications are enormous. The collaboration is boosting the Russian military industry's capacity to sustain a prolonged war. The modernization of border crossings and the simplification of customs procedures are accelerating the supply of dual-use goods, circumventing sanctions and reducing their effectiveness.

This collaboration also marks a significant step in the northern expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative. China has long promoted regional connectivity and economic cooperation, but its strategic presence in the high northern latitudes has been relatively weak. The cooperation project in the Far East not only fills this strategic gap but also provides a new model for resource cooperation and technology transfer in the Arctic and northern Asia. According to Chinese experts, the potential of this cooperation in the Arctic is very high, as the partnership will allow China to expand trade and oil and gas production and develop the Northern Sea Route, significantly reducing shipping times for Chinese goods headed for Europe.

Furthermore, an increasingly isolated Russia may become so indebted and desperate for an Arctic ally that it might give China a small piece of Arctic territory. This would facilitate Beijing's admission to the Arctic Council as a full member, as its participation, currently as an observer, is being obstructed by Western nations. Such a move would cement an "inseparable" maritime alliance between the two powers, allowing them to control strategic routes and the immense resources of the region. This scenario threatens to create a new power bloc in the maritime theater, strengthening the alliance between the two nations that pose the greatest threat to the international order.

Under these circumstances, the West and Ukraine may have much less time than previously thought to defeat or contain Russia on the battlefield. The partnership between Moscow and Beijing—a complex entanglement of necessity, divergent interests, and deep distrust—casts a long shadow over the future of global security and the sanctions regime.