The Rise of Chinese Maritime Power: The Fujian Aircraft Carrier and the Strategic Role of the J-50 Stealth Fighter

"By 2010, we will establish sea control within the first island chain and transform it into an internal sea. By 2020, we will secure sea control within the second island chain, and by 2040, we will have the power to contain the dominance of the U.S. Navy in the Pacific and Indian Oceans." -- Liu Huaqing, 1982. This historical vision guides China's current maritime evolution. This document analyzes how the introduction of the Fujian aircraft carrier, China's first with electromagnetic catapults, is crucial for the deployment of the new sixth-generation stealth fighter, the J-50. The J-50 (identifiable with the "Beisuo" platform) emerges as the most likely candidate for carrier-based operations, designed for penetrating strike missions, featuring advanced stealth capabilities, super-maneuverability, and a significant operational range. The integration of the J-50 with the Fujian carrier system, supported by KJ-600 early warning aircraft, will significantly amplify China's power projection capabilities, extending its threat radius to the second island chain and altering strategic balances in the Indo-Pacific.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

The Evolution of Chinese Maritime Power Projection: New Developments and the Role of Sixth-Generation Stealth Aircraft

Liu Huaqing, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, 1982, "Blueprint for the Chinese Navy's Ocean Plan.

"By 2010, we will establish sea control within the first island chain and transform it into an internal sea. By 2020, we will secure sea control within the second island chain, and by 2040, we will have the power to contain the dominance of the U.S. Navy in the Pacific and Indian Oceans." (Liu Huaqing, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, 1982, "Blueprint for the Chinese Navy's Ocean Plan.)

China's military doctrine, outlined by Liu Huaqing as early as 1982, has consistently aimed at expanding maritime control and containing U.S. naval supremacy. This objective is increasingly tangible, as evidenced by the recent development of the Fujian aircraft carrier and the prospective introduction of new carrier-based aircraft. Recent analyses suggest that China is developing several advanced sixth-generation stealth aircraft concepts, poised to redefine aerial capabilities and power projection.

The Future of Carrier-Based Aviation: The J-50

Early images of China's new sixth-generation stealth aircraft have revealed two distinct platforms: the "Nansuo platform" from the Nanjing Institute of Technology (Northern Institute) and the "Beisuo platform" from the South Institute of Technology (Southern Institute). While a generic "J-50" was previously discussed as a future carrier-based fighter, deeper analysis suggests that the role and characteristics of this aircraft, particularly for carrier deployment, may be best represented by the Beisuo platform.

Both aircraft are in development and flight testing, with large-scale service entry and carrier deployment anticipated in approximately 10 years for some of the platforms closest to implementation.

The J-50

The J-50 features a more "alien" appearance and slightly smaller dimensions, similar to the J-20. Its aerodynamic design is more complex, with diamond-shaped nose strakes, lambda wings, fully movable wingtips, and a variable body configuration (transitioning from a tailless to a V-shaped twin-tail vertical configuration). Equipped with a twin-engine design (similar to the J-20), the J-50 focuses on supersonic speed and maneuverability across all speed ranges. Its bomb carrying capacity is estimated to be slightly greater than that of the J-20. The J-50 is primarily intended for attack missions against U.S. military bases in the first island chain. If embarked on an aircraft carrier, and the carrier were deployed between the first and second island chains, the J-50 could extend its combat radius to the second island chain, potentially collaborating with a Nansuo platform (should one be developed and deployed). The J-50 is considered a more versatile aircraft, with both attack and air defense capabilities. This platform, with its profile and dimensions, appears to be the most likely candidate for a future "J-50" to be deployed on the Fujian aircraft carrier.

Design Convergences

Despite their differences, the platforms under development share some key design elements for sixth-generation aircraft:

• Tailless design and thrust-vectoring engines: To achieve broadband stealth performance and compensate for directional stability after the elimination of the vertical tail.

• Broadband stealth performance: A fundamental requirement for sixth-generation combat aircraft.

The Fujian Aircraft Carrier and the Role of the Future J-50

The Fujian aircraft carrier, China's first with an electromagnetic catapult system, is crucial for the deployment of the future J-50. Its electromagnetic catapult launch system (EMALS) and electromagnetic arresting gear system will provide reliable launch and recovery capabilities for the J-50, precisely adapting to its takeoff weight requirements (estimated between 35 and 40 tons).

The Fujian carrier, theoretically, could embark 32 single-seat J-50s, 5 two-seat J-50s for electronic warfare, and 5 KJ-600 early warning aircraft. The KJ-600, in particular, can establish an aerial early warning network up to 400 kilometers, providing the J-50 with crucial battlefield information and target guidance, enhancing the strike group's effectiveness and survivability.

Future Projections: Strike Capabilities and Operational Synergy

Long-Range Strike Capability

Once operational, future aircraft like the J-50 will significantly expand China's long-range strike capabilities. The J-50, with its potential combat radius of 2,000-2,500 kilometers (extendable to 3,000-4,500 km with missiles and in-flight refueling), would surpass the range of most active fighters globally.

A wave of 16 J-50s from the Fujian carrier could launch dozens of long-range cruise missiles, with the ability to conduct precise attacks on strategic targets such as enemy military ports and command centers. The carrier's mobility, combined with the range of its aircraft, would create a "secure strike circle" of 3,000-4,000 kilometers, making it difficult for the enemy to locate and counterattack. The simultaneous deployment of multiple aircraft carriers could ensure high-intensity attacks 24 hours a day.

Penetrating Strike Capability

The J-50's stealth design would allow it to evade enemy radars and penetrate air defense networks, hitting targets with precision. Its integrated bomb bay would enable it to carry 1,000-kilogram guided bombs or numerous small-diameter bombs, offering versatility for land and sea attacks with a combined "point-to-surface" effect.

The Future Chinese Air Combat System

The emergence of advanced platforms like the J-50 reflects a Chinese military strategy aimed at effectively controlling and attacking the second island chain. While in the past, China could only do this with medium-range cruise missiles and bombers, the new platforms will extend the combat radius of Chinese fighters to the second island chain, significantly increasing the intensity of attacks.

• J-50: It will focus on attacking U.S. military bases in the first island chain and other targets in that area, potentially in coordination with J-20 or J-16 fighters. If embarked on an aircraft carrier, it can extend its reach to attack targets in the second island chain, also serving as an escort and operating under the command of advanced computing power centers. The J-50 is conceived for both attack and defense activities.

Conclusion

The evolution of Chinese air military capabilities, which includes platforms closer to implementation like the J-50, indicates significant progress towards the strategic objectives outlined by Liu Huaqing decades ago. The combination of extended range, advanced stealth capabilities, and potential firepower, supported by cutting-edge technologies like those on the Fujian aircraft carrier, will enable the PLAN to project power far beyond its coasts once these systems are fully operational. This will strengthen China's ability to dominate its maritime space and challenge the power projection of others, significantly altering strategic balances in the Indo-Pacific.