THE STRATEGY OF DENIAL AT A CROSSROADS: Chinese Barges and the Urgency for US Action in Taiwan

The accelerated construction of China's special water-bridge landing barges (Shuiqiao class) is more than just a military upgrade; it's an event that demands the immediate redefinition of US deterrence. This logistical capability, which makes Taiwan's entire coastline vulnerable, is the catalyst pushing the United States toward the urgent implementation of the "Strategy of Denial." As argued by Elbridge Colby—a leading American strategist—the goal must be to deny China a quick victory in Taiwan and regional hegemony. The time for ambiguity is over. We analyze how this threat is reshaping Western defense interests and strategies.

To provide immediate visual context for this logistical "revolution," we are publishing a PLA demonstration video alongside this article showing the modularity and speed of deployment of this system in action.

by Gabriele and Nicola Iuvinale

1. China's Logistical Revolution: The Catalyst for Urgency

The rapid increase in the production of the second batch of Shuiqiao barges is a critical indicator of a potential time acceleration toward a military resolution of the Taiwan issue by China. The Shuiqiao were developed to negate Taiwan's geographic advantage, overcoming the barriers that historically made a large-scale amphibious invasion difficult:

• Bypassing Fixed Defenses: The barges allow the PLA to circumvent traditional defenses concentrated on the "Red Beaches" and fortified ports. They can rapidly establish mobile landings on cliffs, rocky coastlines, and even coral reef areas, effectively rendering Taiwan's static anti-landing defense system nearly obsolete.

• Total Exposure: The ability to land on any coast exposes the island on all sides, including the mountainous, rocky eastern areas previously considered naturally impenetrable.

• Integrated Capacity (MCI): Compatibility with China's massive civilian fleet of Roll-on/Roll-off (Ro-Ro) ships, thanks to the Military-Civilian Integration (MCI) doctrine, grants the PLA a high-efficiency, low-cost mass transport capability, drastically amplifying the logistical threat.

This logistical expansion closes the operational gap and heightens the risk that China may attempt a fait accompli before the United States and its allies can fully react.

2. The Deterrence Crisis and the "Strategy of Denial"

The threat posed by the Shuiqiao exposes the limitations of the current deterrence strategy and underscores the urgency of the approach advocated by Elbridge Colby in his "The Strategy of Denial." His doctrine—stemming from his role as an architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy—argues that the primary US interest is to deny China the ability to achieve regional hegemony.

The Imperative of Denial

• Sole Focus: Preventing Victory in Taiwan: Colby's strategy mandates that the United States must concentrate the majority of its resources and efforts on countering China in the Indo-Pacific, even if it requires trade-offs in attention to other global regions. For Colby, the need to prevent the loss of Taiwan outweighs other concerns, as it represents the existential threat to the US-led global order.

• Credibility and Specificity: The amphibious threat accelerates the need for the US to move past ambiguity. The Strategy of Denial requires Washington to communicate specifically and unequivocally to its partners how it intends to guarantee security, thereby bolstering alliance confidence and making the defense of the First Island Chain credible.

• Vital US Interests: Maintaining Taiwan's independence is vital for the United States due to the island's role in controlling the global supply of advanced semiconductors. The loss of Taiwan is not just a military failure; it is an economic and technological disaster that would fundamentally threaten American hegemony.

The rapid development of the Shuiqiao shortens the "window of opportunity" for the United States, making the implementation of Denial—focused on bolstering Taiwan's defense capabilities—an immediate imperative. Failure to implement this strategy risks ceding to China the power to define US interests.

3. Strategic Imperatives: The Urgent Response of Taiwan and the US

The Chinese escalation necessitates the adoption of decisive measures on two fronts:

Taiwan: Transition to Asymmetric Warfare

Taipei must abandon outdated static tactics and urgently accelerate its focus on asymmetric warfare:

• High-Value Targeting: Taiwan must prioritize the acquisition and deployment of mobile, long-range weapon systems (anti-ship missiles, drones, and smart naval mines) capable of interdicting and destroying the large, slow Shuiqiao barges during the crossing or landing phases, when they are most vulnerable.

• New Defense Alliances: The need to maintain independence compels Taiwan to intensify military cooperation not only with the US but also with regional partners like Japan and Australia to integrate surveillance systems and enhance joint resilience.

US and Allies: Strengthening Collective Deterrence

The United States, Japan, and Australia must elevate their military collaboration to materialize the Strategy of Denial:

• Urgent Arms Provision: Arms sales to Taiwan must focus on mobile, resilient Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) capabilities, accelerating the delivery of missiles and ISR systems.

• Forward Positioning and Exercises: It is crucial to increase the deployment and joint exercises of US and allied forces in the Western Pacific theater, including realistic scenarios for countering landings on non-traditional coastlines.

• Economic Countermeasures: A coordinated plan of economic countermeasures must be organized to counter China's attempt to control the global military supply chain (e.g., rare earths) and to prepare for immediate, large-scale sanctions in the event of a conflict.

In summary, the accelerated construction of the Chinese water-bridge barges signals that the PLA is rapidly closing the logistical-operational gap. For the United States and the West, the strategic stability and independence of Taiwan have never been so directly tied to the maintenance of their own hegemony in the 21st century, validating the urgency of the Strategy of Denial.