US-China Rivalry: Countries That Have or Will Choose Chinese Weapons. Who They Are and Why

In the current geopolitical situation, if China wants to challenge the United States for global hegemony, it must counter three main American strengths: military dominance, technological leadership, and financial power. Of these, military hegemony is the most important, especially today, when "strength" is used to deny adversaries their power.

Military dominance requires not only advanced technology but also size and territorial reach, including alliances with other countries. In the current rivalry between the United States and China, which countries are or could become buyers of Chinese weapons?

To evaluate this, analysts suggest considering three main factors: a country’s geopolitical relations with China, its economic resources to buy weapons, and whether it faces strategic threats from neighboring countries.

Geopolitical relations with China

If a country has deep contradictions with China, it is almost impossible for it to become a buyer. For example, Japan or South Korea are unlikely to buy weapons from China. Even Vietnam, which depends economically on China, finds it hard to abandon Russian weapons. Serbia, despite its dependence on China and its purchase of air defense missile systems, recently signed a $3 billion contract with France for 12 Rafale fighter jets to support its EU ambitions. Small countries often lack the resources to befriend distant powers and confront their neighbors.

Even if countries like Finland have high military budgets or Chinese weapons are cheap, it is impossible for them to do business with China. However, countries that have bought Russian-made aircraft in the past are potential customers for China. They had already considered the influence of the United States, and now Russian weapons are seen as outdated.

Do you have money?

Buying an AK47 is cheap, but buying a high-end fighter plane is expensive. The AK47 is the most successful light weapon in history, but it cannot represent the Russian military industry. To be included in this list, a country must have enough financial resources. For this reason, countries that are too poor or too small are not considered, no matter how strong their need for defense.

Are there any neighboring countries that pose a strategic threat?

A neutral or seemingly harmless country is unlikely to spend much on military equipment. For example, before the Russia-Ukraine war, Finland maintained neutrality and avoided involvement in the NATO-Russia dispute. When the war broke out, Finland felt threatened and quickly joined NATO. Its military spending is expected to rise from less than $3 billion per year to $8 billion by 2029.

Based on these three criteria, we will examine ten countries that could become future buyers of Chinese weapons.

1 - Pakistan – China’s Israel

To achieve its geopolitical goals, China needs its weapons—especially fighter aircraft—to become global. Pakistan is essential in this strategy. China needs Pakistan as much as the United States needs Israel.

A close strategic relationship between a large and a small country requires three conditions:First, the relationship must be fundamental to the larger country’s global strategy.Second, the smaller country must have deep conflicts with its neighbors and less geopolitical potential than its adversaries, making it a reliable partner for the larger country.Third, the smaller country must be able to go to war with stronger adversaries.

For the United States, Israel meets all three criteria. The U.S. is a superpower with global interests, and the Middle East is a key region. Israel, at the center of the Middle East, allows the U.S. to influence the region and the world. Israel’s main enemy is the Arab world, which has a much larger population and territory. The conflict in the Middle East has never truly ended and will likely continue.

The same logic applies to Pakistan and China. China does not need to control the world’s oceans, but the South China Sea and Indian Ocean routes are vital for its trade. These routes are at the heart of China’s economic strategy.

India is a major competitor in the region. Pakistan, with its ongoing conflict with India, is well positioned to become China’s equivalent of Israel. Pakistan’s population is large, but still much smaller than India’s. Its territory is also much smaller. The two countries have long been at odds over Kashmir. For Pakistan, relying on China, which also has conflicts with India, is the best choice.

China needs its own “Israel” even more than the United States does. For Beijing, controlling the global trading order is a necessity, and this may lead to proxy wars. Chinese strategists believe that, unlike the U.S., China will always focus on its own economic development and will not fight as many wars. In this context, a “Chinese version of Israel” is useful for testing Chinese weapons and countering India.

There is another important factor: the countries that most oppose the West are Islamic countries. The rise of Western civilization coincided with the decline of Islamic civilization. This dynamic benefits not only Pakistan and China, but also the broader Muslim world. With a quarter of the world’s countries being Islamic and two billion Muslims globally, the market is huge.

Pakistan currently has 36 J-10CEs. The only question is how many more it will buy, as it is also interested in the J35. For the Chinese Communist Party, Pakistan is the best promoter of Chinese weapons.

2 – Algeria – An Anti-French Stronghold

Algeria is in North-West Africa and, along with Morocco and Tunisia, is known as a Maghreb country. Of the three, Algeria has the largest population and territory and sees itself as the regional leader. It is located across the sea from France. During the colonial era, the Maghreb and much of West Africa were French colonies.

After World War II, Algeria gained independence along with other French colonies in Africa. This history has made Algeria a main source of immigration to France. Today, 2.3 million people of Algerian origin live in France, about 5% of the French population.

Despite close ties, Algeria’s painful past and its ambition to lead the region have made it distrustful of its neighbors, Morocco and Libya, and even consider them rivals. Like South Korea and Japan, who are allies but still have deep-seated mistrust, Algeria avoids being limited by France and the West in military matters.

This mindset led Algeria to become the largest buyer of Soviet weapons during the Cold War and, later, Russia’s biggest customer in Africa.Algeria’s air force currently has 74 Su-30MKA, 32 MiG-29S, 18 MiG-23MS, 40 Su-34 fighter bombers, 22 Su-24MK/MK2/MR, and 4 Il-78MD tankers. It has also ordered 14 Su-57 stealth fighters and 14 MiG-29M/M2. The 24 Su-35SE fighters originally ordered by Egypt are said to have gone to Algeria.

As Russia’s influence declines, Algeria has started buying Chinese equipment. The Hongqi-9B air defense system and the C-28A missile frigate are already in service, and 24 JF-17 fighter jets were purchased in 2021 for testing.

More importantly, Algeria is wealthy. It is Africa’s third largest oil and gas producer and earned $50 billion from natural gas exports in 2022. Its military budget for 2025 is $25.1 billion. For comparison, Egypt’s military budget is only $6 billion. Algeria has always competed with France and sees it as a strategic rival. Military spending is high, reaching 6.2% of GDP, more than the United States.

France’s military spending is $53 billion, or 1.49% of GDP. Given the cost differences, Algeria’s military spending is comparable to France’s.

3 – Egypt: The Arab Big Brother That Endured Hardships

Israel’s rise has deeply affected many countries, especially Egypt. When the Arab League was founded in 1945, Egypt was its natural leader and hosted its headquarters in Cairo.

In the four Middle East wars that followed, Egypt’s military played a central role and controlled the country’s politics. Egypt’s original ambition was to destroy Israel and unite the Arab countries under its leadership. In 1958, it even formed an alliance with Syria and Yemen.

However, after four wars, Egypt returned to its starting point. In 1967, Israel won the Six-Day War and occupied the Sinai Peninsula. In 1973, Egypt, with Soviet support, launched another war but was again defeated by Israel, which had U.S. backing.

After these defeats, Egypt fell into economic crisis and lost control of the Sinai Peninsula, putting the Suez Canal at risk. In 1978, Egypt signed the Camp David Accords with Israel, regaining the Sinai but being labeled a traitor by the Arab League, which moved its headquarters to Tunisia.

Eventually, Egypt rejoined the Arab League, but the deep conflict with Israel remains. If Egypt wants to regain its former influence, it must be the backbone of the Arab world. Historically, Egypt is still struggling to recover.

Egypt has lost confidence in Russian weapons and is forced to buy American arms, but it cannot get the best models. Its military equipment is as mixed as India’s. France has sold it 54 Rafale and 19 Mirage fighters; the U.S. has sold 128 F-16s; Russia, 44 MiG-29s. Over 20 years ago, Egypt also bought 50 J-6s, 60 J-7s, and 120 K8E trainers from China.

The U.S. will not upgrade Egypt’s F-16s. If conflict with Israel arises, Egypt would not get support for maintenance or training. Only then would Egypt be forced to turn to another supplier.

With China’s military rise, Egypt announced after the 2024 Zhuhai Air Show that it would buy 40 Chinese J-10CEs and recently held joint exercises with China. Many of Egypt’s F-16s will likely not be upgraded.

In April 2025, Egypt’s ambassador to South Korea expressed interest in buying 100 FA-50 trainers and building a production line in Egypt. Some think this is to compete with the J-10C, but the two aircraft are different. South Korean trainers can be integrated into the U.S. system and help train F-16 pilots. If China built a local production line, Egypt could be self-sufficient if the U.S. stopped supplies. If there were real competition, Egypt’s target would be the Chinese K-8 trainer.

The recent air war between India and Pakistan showed that what matters is not what a country buys, but what it produces itself. Pakistan’s victory inspired the Islamic world, showing that there are alternatives to Western systems.

It is hard to say if Egypt and South Korea’s large orders will be affected. However, compared to Algeria, Egypt has less money and relies on $1.4 billion in U.S. aid each year. Adopting a fully Chinese system would be very difficult.

4 – Indonesia: The Self-Proclaimed Big Brother of Southeast Asia

Among the 11 Southeast Asian countries, Indonesia has the largest population—281 million people, or 40% of ASEAN’s total. It is the fourth most populous country in the world, after India, China, and the United States, and has 60 million more people than Pakistan.

This gives Indonesia an advantage: it is the most populous Islamic country. This status fuels its ambition to be a great power. After World War II, Indonesia hosted the 1955 Asia-Africa Conference in Bandung, hoping to lead the Third World. As the saying goes, “a great power rises with its navy.” Indonesia, made up of thousands of islands, has always focused on developing its navy. In a 2025 ranking, China’s navy is first, Indonesia’s is fourth, South Korea’s is fifth, and Russia’s is third.

Such rankings, based only on tonnage, are not very useful, but they show Indonesia’s investment in its navy.

Even a large country like India has not developed a complete military-industrial system. Indonesia buys equipment from many countries, and much of it is second-hand, including from the Soviet Union, East Germany, and the Netherlands. Recently, Indonesia has been modernizing its fleet, with four Dutch-built Sigma-class frigates purchased in 2023. There are also rumors it wants to buy the Chinese 075 amphibious landing ship.

The Indonesian Air Force has 11 SU-30MK2s, 23 second-hand F-16s, and 12 French Mirages. Recently, it ordered 42 Rafale aircraft and is co-developing the KF-21 fighter with South Korea.

The U.S. and Russia are reluctant to sell, and China has some maritime disputes with Indonesia. It is understandable that Indonesia would upgrade its Rafale fighters and develop a fifth-generation aircraft with South Korea, while buying ships from the Netherlands.

However, after the 1957 air battle, Indonesia faced political pressure. French aircraft are now seen as expensive and unreliable. Indonesia already cooperates with China in economic and infrastructure projects, like the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway.

The equipment bought by small countries is not enough to support Indonesia’s dream of becoming a great power. The money spent on Rafale fighters could equip three J-10 regiments. Whether Indonesia’s future is more closely tied to China depends on its leaders’ decisions, but the J-10C will likely become the main fighter for a Southeast Asian country.

5 – Thailand: The Best Opponent in History

Thailand is one of the few Asian countries that was never colonized. At that time, only China and Japan also kept their independence. Thailand managed this by staying neutral. Britain controlled Burma and Malaya, while France controlled Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. The Thai royal family, caught in the middle, acted as a buffer state and avoided annexation, though it lost some territory.

When Japan started the Pacific War, Thailand cooperated with Japan to try to regain lost land. After World War II, it changed sides again.

Thailand’s policy has always been to avoid relying on any great power, but also not to offend any. This approach has kept Thailand independent.

Thailand’s main concerns are its neighbors, Myanmar and Vietnam. In the past, Myanmar nearly destroyed Thailand, and the Burmese are still seen as a threat. Laos, once controlled by Vietnam, is also considered by Thais as part of their historical territory.

Today, the Royal Thai Air Force has 47 F-16A/Bs, averaging 35 years old, and 11 Swedish JAS-39C/D Gripen fighters. Against modern fighters like Vietnam’s Su-30 and Singapore’s F-35B, Thailand is at a disadvantage.

For this reason, Thailand wants to modernize its air force. It has considered the Chinese J-10C and the American F-35. In September 2024, Thailand announced it would buy 12 upgraded Gripen E/F fighters from Sweden. This makes sense, as they are compatible with existing systems and avoid choosing between major powers.

Because of its F-16s and the need to defend against Russian-made fighters in Vietnam, Thailand has had close air exchanges with China in recent years. Since 2015, their air forces have held joint exercises called “Eagle Strike.” It would not be surprising if Thailand bought J-10C fighters in the future. Thailand has never planned to go to war with China, and its relationship with Vietnam is delicate.

6 – Malaysia: Israel’s Rival in the East

Malaysia is another potential buyer of Chinese military aircraft. Its air force currently has 18 SU-30MKM, 10 MiG-29N, 8 US F/A-18, 13 F5E Freedom Fighter reconnaissance interceptors, and 13 British Hawk light trainers. This mix shows that Malaysia buys from various countries.

Malaysia’s main geopolitical competitors are Singapore, which separated from Malaysia in the past, and Indonesia, which has sometimes wanted to annex it. Singapore, though small, is wealthy and has focused on building a strong air force with US support. Its main fighters are 60 F-16C/Ds and 40 F-15SGs, plus early warning and refueling aircraft. Singapore’s air power is much greater than that of Malaysia or Indonesia.

For example, in 2011, a Malaysian helicopter approached an island with a Singaporean military camp. The Singapore Air Force quickly sent an F-16 to drive it away.

Because of its strong air force, Singapore is sometimes called the “Israel of the East,” especially since neighboring Indonesia and Malaysia are both Islamic countries. After the US-China split and the start of the Gaza war, Indonesia and Malaysia have shown the highest public support for China among ASEAN countries. This religious background gives both countries geopolitical reasons to buy Chinese aircraft and support Beijing in the Indo-Pacific.

7 – Bangladesh: The Survivor of South Asia

According to a 2024 report, Bangladesh plans to buy 16 J-10CE fighter jets to replace its old F-7MBs. The Bangladesh Air Force has a “Force Modernization Plan 2030” to acquire modern air combat capabilities by 2030. Bangladesh cannot afford fifth-generation aircraft, so the Chinese J-10C is a better choice.

After the partition of India and Pakistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan were united by Britain because of their shared religion. In 1971, India intervened militarily, and Bangladesh gained independence. Since then, Bangladesh has had poor relations with Pakistan but must rely on India. However, deep-rooted issues make it impossible for Bangladesh to truly depend on India. The country is almost entirely surrounded by India, with only a small border with Myanmar. When China began to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean, Bangladesh started to see China as a distant diplomatic partner.

Because of maritime disputes with Myanmar and India, Bangladesh has focused on developing its navy. In the past, it had old warships from the US and Britain. In 1999, Saudi Arabia bought a South Korean frigate and donated it to Bangladesh. After 2016, Bangladesh decided to modernize with Chinese equipment, buying submarines and missile frigates from China.

Small countries like Bangladesh still rely on their air forces. The Bangladesh Air Force has many old aircraft from different countries, but they are not effective. The navy has benefited from Chinese upgrades, so it is natural to want the J-10C for the air force.

Recently, China has helped improve relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan. If China provides the planes and Pakistan provides training, Bangladesh could quickly modernize its air force. The main problem is that Bangladesh is one of the world’s least developed countries, with a military budget of only $5 billion. Water resources are also limited by India, so its influence must be considered.

8 – Azerbaijan: Armenia’s Nemesis

The Caucasus region, where Asia and Europe meet, has a long history of conflict. Like Chechnya in Russia, it is mountainous and has seen many wars. Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, once Soviet republics, became independent after the Soviet Union collapsed.

Because of historical disputes, overlapping territories, and religious differences, Azerbaijan, a Muslim country, is often at odds with Armenia, the oldest Christian country in the world. The Nagorno-Karabakh region, given to Azerbaijan during the Soviet era but mostly populated by Armenians, has been a major source of conflict. Armenia initially had the upper hand with Russian support, and the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence.

In 2020, as Armenia moved closer to the United States, Russia reduced its support. With Turkey’s help, Azerbaijan launched a war and used Turkish drones to regain much of Nagorno-Karabakh. In 2023, as Russia faced its own problems, Azerbaijan took full control of the region, forcing Armenia to step back.

If the Russia-Ukraine war ends, Russia may again support Armenia. For now, Azerbaijan remains on alert and needs to upgrade its air force. Azerbaijan’s air force has 14 MiG-29s and over 30 Su-25s, but these are old and outdated.

Armenia’s air force also has old aircraft, but in 2019 it bought four Su-30SM fighters from Russia, giving it an edge on paper. Azerbaijan, with Turkey’s support, uses F-16s but is now looking at Chinese aircraft.

In 2024, Azerbaijan bought 12 Chinese JF-17 Block 3 fighters for $1.6 billion to replace its old MiGs. These planes are made in Pakistan with Chinese parts. The high price shows it is not easy to buy new planes, but Azerbaijan is preparing to follow Pakistan’s model, combining JF-17s with J-10CEs.

9 – Uzbekistan: The Solution to the Fergana Basin Dilemma

Of the countries that broke away from the Soviet Union, five are in Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan borders Russia, and Turkmenistan is neutral. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan border China.

Uzbekistan has the most complex geopolitical situation. It is squeezed between four other countries, and the fertile Fergana Basin is divided among Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. All three have enclaves in each other’s territory, leading to many disputes.

For example, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, a key part of the Silk Road, was delayed for years because Kyrgyzstan raised prices and changed the route under Russian pressure. The project only moved forward when the Russia-Ukraine war forced Russia to seek China’s help.

Uzbekistan’s air force has fewer than 50 combat aircraft, mostly old Soviet MiG-29s. The country considered buying Russian Su-30SM fighters, but they were expensive and slow to deliver. Uzbekistan then turned to Chinese weapons. In April 2025, Russian media reported that China had approved the sale of advanced fighter jets to Uzbekistan, but it is unclear if they will buy the JF-17, the J-10, or both.

Uzbekistan has already bought new Chinese air defense systems, including the FM-90 and KS-1C. Turkmenistan has also deployed Chinese air defense systems. The Chinese system integrates air defense, early warning, and combat effectiveness. For Uzbekistan, buying the J-10CE would be a logical next step.

10 – Brazil: The Natural Leader of South America

The world’s main geopolitical players are the United States, China, Russia, the European Union, and India. If another country could join them, it would be Brazil. Brazil has a population larger than Russia (211 million) and a territory bigger than the EU or India (8.51 million square kilometers).

Brazil’s problem is that it does not face strong pressure from its neighbors. Argentina, which has sometimes been a rival, is currently in economic crisis and cannot threaten Brazil militarily. As a result, Brazil’s army has not needed urgent upgrades. Its air force mainly used 43 second-hand American F-5s.

Still, as the largest country in South America, Brazil cannot remain second-rate forever. In 2017, it negotiated with Sweden to buy 36 JAS-EF Gripen fighters, with local production. Brazil’s aircraft industry, led by Embraer, is the third largest in the world after Boeing and Airbus.

Brazil wants to be a major power and has a strong aviation sector. It makes sense to seek technology transfer and local production of fourth-generation aircraft. After seven years, the first eight Gripen fighters were delivered, and the order may rise to 72, with each costing $150–170 million.

Although Brazil now has its own fourth-generation aircraft, these are Western designs. The main components, especially the engines, come from the West. This is a risk, as Brazil’s biggest potential threat is the United States. The supply chain is complex and delivery times for the Gripen have been delayed.

If Brazil wants to strengthen its military, it cannot do so all at once. For China, “American products cannot be trusted, European ones are unreliable, and Russian ones are not easy to use, so Chinese aircraft are the best choice.” In 2023, leftist President Lula was re-elected, opening new opportunities for cooperation with China. The J-10C was designed with Brazil in mind: it is cheap, China offers a stable supply chain, and there are no major geopolitical conflicts.

The only problem is that Chinese weapons have not been tested in real combat. On May 10, 2025, President Lula visited China for five days. During his visit, China and Brazil signed a military supply deal worth RMB 12.87 billion, including 20 J-10CE fighters, 240 PL-15E missiles, 10 WS-10B spare engines, and full maintenance and training support.

The WS-10B engine, made by AECC, is the main power system for the J-10 series. This reassured Brazil about buying Chinese products. There were also reports that Brazil offered China use of the Alcantara Satellite Launch Center in exchange for free J-10CEs, but China declined, preferring business deals.