Africa and Central Asia poles of attraction: Belt and Road Initiative flies into 2025 with unprecedented investment

In the first half of 2025, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reached a record commitment of $124 billion. This significant increase was driven particularly by investments in the energy, metals and technology sectors , with Africa and Central Asia becoming the main destinations. Despite a growing emphasis on green energy, investment in fossil fuels, particularly gas and oil, soared significantly

The first half of 2025 marked an unprecedented acceleration for China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), reaching the highest engagement levels ever recorded in a six-month period. With $66.2 billion in construction contracts and approximately $57.1 billion in investments, China's total engagement in the BRI nearly doubled the value of the previous record from 2024. This surge was primarily driven by the energy, metals and mining, and technology sectors, with Africa and Central Asia emerging as the main investment destinations. Despite an increased emphasis on green energy, fossil fuel investments, particularly in gas and oil, saw a significant surge, reaching historical highs. Chinese private companies played a dominant role in investments, while state-owned enterprises continued to lead in construction projects.

According to the "China Belt and Road Initiative Investment Report 2025," authored by Professor Christoph Nedopil, Director of the Griffith Asia Institute, total engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reached $124 billion in the first half of 2025, the highest level ever recorded in a six-month period.

Credit Extrema Ratio

Record Financial Engagement and Sectoral Redefinition

The scale of China's BRI engagement in the first half of 2025 is remarkable, with a total of $124 billion distributed across approximately 176 deals. This figure not only nearly doubles the engagement recorded in the first half of 2024, but also surpasses the entire total BRI engagement for all of 2024 ($122 billion). Cumulatively, since its inception in 2013, China's BRI engagement has reached an impressive $1.308 trillion, of which $775 billion is in construction contracts and $533 billion in non-financial investments.

A deeper analysis reveals a shift in the composition of engagement: the share of investments compared to construction increased to about 46%, the second highest level on record. This contrasts with the 54% share of construction contracts, which are typically financed through loans provided by Chinese financial institutions and/or contractors, with projects often receiving guarantees through the host country's government institutions, potentially backed up by resources (e.g., oil, gas).

The average deal size reached record highs for both investments and construction. For investments with a value larger than $100 million, the average deal size grew to $1.243 billion in 2025 (up from $672 million in 2024), values two to three times higher than in the past 10 years. For construction projects, the average deal size in 2025 increased to $783 million, up from $498 million in 2024. These developments are primarily driven by single large projects, such as a $20 billion construction project in Nigeria and two investment projects valued at more than $5 billion, both in Kazakhstan. This trend, however, runs counter to the official ambition of promoting "small yet beautiful projects" in the BRI, although it is important to note that most large infrastructure projects are resource-backed deals (e.g., oil, gas) rather than fiscal spending deals (e.g., road construction), presenting relatively low financial risks for Chinese counterparts.

The sectors that showed the most significant growth in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024 were the energy sector (+$20.9 billion), metals and mining (+$14.7 billion), and the technology sectors (+$9.9 billion). China's overseas BRI engagement continued to focus on energy (35%). Compared to the early years of the BRI, the transport sector dropped to its lowest level, representing only 7.2% of BRI engagement (compared to, for example, 28% in 2018 and 17.7% in 2023). Meanwhile, the metals and mining sector continued to expand its role as the second largest sector, with about 20%, while the share of the technology sector contracted slightly to 13.3% (despite an absolute growth). Notably, in mining and technology, Chinese firms are increasingly prioritizing equity investments, despite the higher risks involved, while energy investments continue to be dominated by construction deals rather than equity-based investments.

Regional and Country Analysis: An Evolving Landscape

Chinese BRI engagement was not evenly distributed among all regions. Africa and Central Asia topped the rank of BRI engagement, reaching $39 billion and $25 billion, respectively (unseating the Middle East). Africa recorded the absolute largest construction engagement, reaching $30.5 billion in the first half of 2025, a significant increase of 395% compared to $6.1 billion in the first half of 2024. The Middle East came in second with $19.4 billion in engagement. For investment, most regions saw an increase (except Southeast Asia and Latin America), with significant increases in Europe (+2,145%) and Central Asia (+257%), reaching total engagements of $3.5 billion and $24.3 billion respectively. Central Asia was also the region with the highest absolute investment volume in H1 2025, followed by Southeast Asia with $11.3 billion in Chinese investment. Conversely, Latin American BRI countries continued to see low Chinese engagement, remaining at the lowest values in the past 10 years for investment and construction.

China's financing and investment spread across 69 BRI countries in 2025 H1 (up from 67 in 2024 H1), with 43 countries receiving investments and 53 with construction engagement. The country with the highest construction volume in 2025 H1 was Nigeria with about $21 billion (up from 206 million in 2024 H1), followed by Saudi Arabia ($7.2 billion), UAE ($7 billion), Tanzania ($3.6 billion), and Indonesia (about $2.1 billion). Regarding BRI investments, Kazakhstan was the single largest recipient with approximately $23 billion in investments in 2025 H1, followed by Thailand ($7.4 billion) and Egypt ($4.8 billion). It is noteworthy that 16 countries saw a 100% drop in BRI engagement compared to 2024 H1, including Cameroon, Bulgaria, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. China's engagement in Pakistan for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) dropped by 54%, after dropping about 40% from 2023 to 2024. The countries with the largest growth in BRI engagement were Nigeria (+12,235%), Thailand (+2,373%), Lao (+2,030%), Tanzania (+1,930%), and Oman (+1,718%). Like in the year 2022 (the year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine), Russia did not receive any Chinese engagement in H1 2025.

Energy: A Growing Sector, Between Green and Fossil Fuels

China's energy-related engagement in 2025 H1 again set a record, reaching about $44 billion, more than in the previous full record year 2024. While green energy engagement reached new records with $9.7 billion in wind, solar, and waste-to-energy projects and an installed capacity of about 11.9 GW of green energy, China also expanded its engagement in fossil fuels, particularly gas, but also coal (through coal mining). Oil and gas engagement surged to record highs of about $44 billion, higher than in all of 2024, particularly through oil/gas processing facilities construction contracts in Nigeria ($20 billion). Total oil and gas engagement rose significantly to over $30 billion in just the first half of 2025 (up from $24 billion in all of 2024), constituting almost 70% of Chinese overseas energy engagement, with $23.3 billion in gas and $6.9 billion in oil. A major deal for investments was the $3.7 billion investment by Sinopec in Sri Lanka to build an oil refinery. Meanwhile, all gas-related projects were related to construction projects, such as the $20 billion Ogidigbon Gas Revolution Park in Nigeria and the $1.6 billion engagement by Harbin Electric in Saudi Arabia for a gas-fired power plant. Engagement in distribution systems (e.g., substations, power lines) constituted more than 4.5% of Chinese BRI energy engagement.

Following China's announcement in September 2021 not to build new coal-fired power plants, select new coal-fired power projects seem to progress (e.g., Bangladesh Barisal 2, Gacko II in Bosnia). While no new coal plants with Chinese participation had been announced since 2021, 2025 saw a continued engagement in coal-related activities through mining operations. Altogether, over $1.58 billion in contracts for coal-related activities were identified. A more detailed analysis of green energy sources revealed that China is engaging in a diverse range of energy projects. While solar and wind play an absolutely growing role, in H1 2025, the majority was fossil fuel-related engagement, with 53% gas, 16% oil, and 3.6% coal-related engagement.

Metals, Mining, and Technology on the Rise

The metals and mining sector reached new records, surpassing the full year of 2024 (which itself was a record year) in the first 6 months of 2025 with about $24.9 billion. Most of this was through investments and in minerals processing (about $10 billion into mining). Kazakhstan saw the most important engagement through $12 billion in aluminium and another $7.5 billion in copper.

Technology and manufacturing also broke records and reached almost $23.2 billion, with high-tech engagements in solar PV, EV batteries, and in hydrogen (in Nigeria). Other notable engagements include a $2.1 billion investment by China Aviation Lithium Battery (CALB) in a lithium battery factory in Portugal or a $700 million solar PV glass production base in Egypt by Xinyi Glass Holding.

Major Players in BRI Investments

In 2025 H1, Chinese private enterprises reclaimed a dominant role in Investment from private enterprises, reversing the trend of the last year. For investment projects, East Hope Group and Xinfa Group led ahead of Longi Green Energy and Bytedance (all private companies). Sinopec, a state-owned enterprise, ranked fifth. Construction projects are all dominated by Chinese state-owned enterprises, with China National Chemical Engineering and PowerChina being prominently featured.

Outlook for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

For the rest of 2025, a stabilization of Chinese BRI engagement is foreseen, with a focus on renewable energy, mining, and new technologies. Global trade and investment volatility will potentially spur further investment for supply chain resilience and alternative export markets for Chinese companies. Potential future engagements remain in six project types: manufacturing in new technologies (e.g., batteries), renewable energy, trade-enabling infrastructure (including pipelines, roads), ICT (e.g., data centres), resource-backed deals (e.g., mining, oil, gas), and high visibility or strategic projects (e.g., railway, ports). While overall engagement is expected to remain robust, a lower number of megadeals is anticipated in the second half of 2025.