Assad Survives Poisoning: Why Moscow Views the Ex-Syrian Leader as a Strategic Liability

The Shadow of an Elimination Plot

Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad recently survived a second suspected poisoning while in exile in Moscow. He received intensive care for ten days before being discharged on October 2. This incident, in which an unknown toxin was detected in his body, is more than a personal drama—it is a microcosm of the changing geopolitical landscape in Syria. Following the regime's fall, Russia swiftly pivoted, forging a strategic alliance with the new Syrian leader, al-Julani. Since Assad's survival makes him a potential opposition leader, his presence in Russia has become an inconvenient obstacle. The incident highlights Russia's ruthless calculation to secure its crucial military bases in the Middle East (Tartus and Khmeimim), even at the cost of eliminating its former ally.

A Fight with Death in Intensive Care

On September 22, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was rushed to the intensive care unit of a highly secretive hospital on the outskirts of Moscow, engaged in a fierce struggle for survival. Eyewitnesses reported that, as he was being loaded into the ambulance, Assad allegedly murmured a sinister prophecy: "Your destiny will be worse than mine."

Assad had been poisoned with a mysterious toxin. Symptoms included an intense cough, a feeling of tightness in the chest, and nervous system disturbances, putting his condition in a critical state. After over ten days of agony and intensive care, the former leader finally managed to survive and was discharged on October 2.

This is not the first time Assad's life has been in danger. Back in January 2025, media outlets reported that he had become severely ill in Moscow under circumstances that suggested poisoning. At that time, he also displayed similar symptoms of coughing and suffocation, and tests revealed the presence of toxins in his system.

Russia's Strategic Repositioning

Assad's failed assassination is not merely an internal Syrian political matter; it is a reflection of the complex international dynamics in which Russia plays a key role. Moscow has long maintained important military bases in Syria, such as the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim airbase, which are essential for its strategic presence in the Middle East.

Following the fall of the Assad regime, Russia quickly altered its strategy and began cooperating with the new Syrian leader, al-Julani. Julani’s new regime immediately faced monumental challenges: a collapsing economy, numerous internal factions, and external threats, particularly from Israel. Under such circumstances, Julani had no choice but to seek support from a major power.

Russia intervened promptly, offering an olive branch. Moscow expressed its readiness to help Syria with reconstruction and guarantee the security of its military bases. In return, Russia posed two crucial conditions: that the new Syrian regime cancel the significant debt incurred during the Assad era and that it allow Russia to maintain its troop presence in the country unchanged.

The Obstacle Named Assad

After weighing the pros and cons, Julani chose to cooperate with Moscow. This partnership not only allowed Russia to solidify its strategic position but also provided Julani with much-needed economic and military assistance.

However, Assad's presence in exile has quickly become an awkward obstacle to the nascent Russian-Syrian cooperation. As long as Assad lives, there is a risk that he could emerge at any moment as the leader of the Syrian opposition, posing a direct threat to the stability and legitimacy of the Julani regime.

For Russia, maintaining the alliance with the new leader is the absolute priority for preserving its strategic assets. Consequently, Moscow has a powerful incentive to eliminate this potential threat by any means necessary to protect its geopolitical investment.