Asymmetric weapons: from pharmacies to foundries, China is reshaping global power by eliminating the last American veto

China is implementing a systematic and programmatic strategy to build geoeconomic power levers, transforming global dependence into a tool for coercion while simultaneously ensuring self-sufficiency in its critical areas. This holistic strategy, where control over supply chains is a crucial weapon, aims to shape a new world order. Beijing has meticulously gained control over vital supply chains—dominating the markets for strategic sectors like Rare Earth Metals (REM), Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and generic medicines, and high-capacity batteries—to exert influence and generate an asymmetric strategic dependence. In parallel, it has neutralized its historical weaknesses, such as its reliance on helium (He), reducing the US supply to less than 5% by 2024. Finally, technological restrictions imposed by the United States have not halted progress but have catalyzed it, pushing China toward a massive "innovation by circumvention" campaign to create a completely self-sufficient Artificial Intelligence technology stack.

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The Programmatic Construction of Geoeconomic Levers

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has integrated the economy into its doctrine of state power, employing a strategy where control over international supply chains is a crucial non-military weapon. The objective is twofold: to create dependence in rival states and to ensure its own autonomy.

This programming is evident in the control of critical sectors essential for high technology and global national security:

• Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Metals (REM): China has historically monopolized the refining and supply of REM, indispensable materials for advanced electronics and the energy transition. Having resolved its strategic vulnerability, Beijing has introduced new and restrictive export restrictions on REM-containing materials.

• Energy Technologies: Control extends to key elements of the energy transition, with the US dependent on Chinese imports for 75% of lithium-ion batteries.

These tactics fall within the arsenal of the Chinese State Economy, utilizing massive public investments and the Military-Civil Fusion Strategy (MCF) to instrumentalize commercial capabilities for regime strengthening purposes.

Global Health Dominance: APIs and Generic Medicines

Another sector where China has exerted meticulous geoeconomic programming is pharmaceuticals, exploiting the asymmetry of supply chains.

• Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and Intermediates: China has emerged as the world's leading producer of APIs. By 2017, it was estimated that China produced about 40% of all global APIs. Chinese global export volumes in 2020 show overwhelming shares for key ingredients like Tetracycline/Doxycycline (86% ), Vitamin B1 (63% ), and Aspirin (44% ). This leadership extends to generic medicines, consolidating its influence over the global low-cost drug market.

• Upstream and Downstream Vulnerability: The dependence is accentuated by the fact that India, while a major supplier of finished pharmaceuticals to the US, imports nearly 70% of its APIs from China. This concentration makes the supply chain highly vulnerable to disruptions, non-compliance with good manufacturing practices (GMP), or, crucially, the Chinese government's willingness to exploit the dependence as a weapon.

• Geoeconomic Leverage: Beijing's aggressive action has contributed to pushing Western and Indian producers out of the market (as in the case of Penicillin G, where China dominates API production), selling at below-cost prices to gain a dominant share and then raising prices. This dominance grants Beijing powerful strategic leverage over global health security.

Strategic Disengagement: The Helium Case

Until recently, China's geoeconomic arsenal presented a critical weakness: its reliance on helium (He). Helium is an essential noble gas, used as a "cryogenic coolant" in high-precision sectors, acting as an irreplaceable element. Despite accounting for less than 0.01% of a product's final cost, it carries a 100% strategic veto power in the event of a supply interruption.

Historically, the US controlled much of the global market, managing the "Federal Helium Reserve" in Texas (Amarillo), known as the "Helium Bank". This control was the last "influence" the US had over China.

However, with massive investments in geological research and extraction technology development (like cryogenic distillation), China severed this dependency in just a few years.

• By 2025, China's helium production is expected to exceed 3 million cubic meters, covering about 20% of demand, a significant increase from the 10% in 2023.

• China reduced its reliance on US helium to less than 5% by the end of 2024.

Eliminating this vulnerability is crucial, as it allows China to have simultaneous control over the two strategic pillars: materials (rare earths) and temperature (helium), closing its technological loop.

Forced Innovation and Technological Self-Sufficiency

US technological restrictions, particularly on access to advanced semiconductors, have catalyzed China's "innovation by circumvention" strategy to create an autonomous technology stack.

• Chips and AI: China is addressing its high external dependency in the most advanced chips (with Taiwan holding 92% of advanced production) by investing billions of dollars to nationalize the entire semiconductor supply chain. The strategy aims to compensate for the hardware gap with systemic efficiency and software optimization, with the goal of achieving parity in strength and prestige with the US.

• Response to Sanctions: This approach aligns with the "holistic concept of national security" promoted by Xi Jinping, which extends security from territorial defense to economic, cultural, and technological stability. Companies like Huawei, severely impacted by sanctions, are forced to align with the Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) policy, ensuring civil innovations support the PLA's modernization. The goal is to build a "world-class" military force by 2049.

The Holistic Dimension: "Liminal Warfare" and New Orders

The ensemble of these policies falls under the "Liminal Warfare" strategy, where China uses economic coercion and diplomatic and cyber infiltration (the so-called "Three Warfares"—public opinion, psychological, and legal) to undermine the existing international order and promote a "Sinocentric community with a shared future".

• Coercion and "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy": China uses access to its vast market as leverage to pressure companies and countries to adhere to its political positions, such as regarding Taiwan. This tactic is amplified by the "wolf warrior diplomacy" adopted by Chinese diplomats starting in 2020.

• Cyber Strategy: The CCP exploits the "Great Firewall" and cybersecurity laws to collect data for strategic purposes, even from foreign citizens, with the aim of becoming a "cyber superpower". State-sponsored cyber operations are not only aimed at the theft of intellectual property (IP), but they also represent a crucial component of the PLA's military strategy, with the Strategic Support Force (SSF) centralizing cyber, electronic, and psychological warfare capabilities.

Conclusions

China's geoeconomic strategy reveals a meticulously planned, long-term effort to shape the world order through the asymmetry of dependencies and the pursuit of complete technological autonomy. Framed by the "Liminal Warfare" doctrine, China's actions signal that its ultimate goal is total strategic autonomy, ensuring its economic power and military modernization can be exercised free from external vulnerabilities, thereby consolidating its influence over the global system.