Beijing's Silent War: How China is Reshaping Europe's Future
- Gabriele Iuvinale
- 28 mag
- Tempo di lettura: 9 min
Table of Contents
Introduction: The Silent War of Liminal Warfare
Overview of China's rise as a global power
Explanation of Liminal Warfare and its implications for Europe
China's Economic Growth: A Controversial Success
Rapid economic expansion since WTO accession
Market-distorting practices and global impact
Xi Jinping's Vision: Global Dominance
Strategic initiatives: Made in China 2025, China Standards 2035, and Belt and Road Initiative
Long-term goals for technological and industrial leadership
Military-Civil Fusion (MCF): A Strategic Threat
Integration of civilian and military resources
Exfiltration of global technologies for military and economic dominance
Control of Ports: A Military and Commercial Strategy
Chinese investments in global and European ports
Strategic importance of Mediterranean ports
Security risks: espionage, military power projection, and trade route control
Risks for European Businesses and Strategic Dependencies
Overview of European dependencies on China
Key sectors at risk:
Critical raw materials (rare earths, lithium, cobalt)
Consumer electronics
Green energy (solar panels, wind turbines, batteries)
Pharmaceuticals
Automotive industry
Implications for European companies: technology theft, economic vulnerabilities, and regulatory risks
Recommendations for a Coordinated Response
For the European Union (EU):
Diversification of supply chains
Strengthening regulatory frameworks
Enhancing strategic autonomy
Promoting unity among member states
For National Governments:
Protecting critical infrastructure
Supporting domestic industries
Enhancing cybersecurity
Educating and raising awareness
For European Companies:
Assessing supply chain risks
Protecting intellectual property
Investing in innovation
Monitoring regulatory compliance
For NATO:
Strengthening maritime security
Integrating economic security into defense planning
Enhancing cyber defense capabilities
Expanding partnerships beyond Europe
Conclusion
The need for a unified and strategic response
Reducing dependencies and strengthening resilience
Collaborating with global partners to counterbalance China's ambitions
Introduction
In the past two decades, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a global powerhouse, transforming itself from an emerging economy into the world's second-largest economic entity. This meteoric rise has been fueled by industrial modernization, aggressive trade policies, and strategic investments across the globe. However, beneath this economic success lies a calculated and multifaceted strategy that extends far beyond traditional economic competition. China is engaging in what experts term "Liminal Warfare"—a form of conflict that blurs the lines between peace and war, leveraging economic, technological, and military tools to achieve dominance without direct confrontation.
Liminal Warfare operates in the gray zone, where actions are designed to destabilize and influence adversaries incrementally, often below the threshold of conventional war. This strategy encompasses a wide spectrum of tactics, including economic coercion, technological dominance, control of critical infrastructure, and the manipulation of global supply chains. For Europe, this silent war poses a significant challenge, as it exposes vulnerabilities in critical sectors such as energy, technology, and defense, while creating dependencies that undermine the continent's strategic autonomy.
China's approach to Liminal Warfare is not limited to economic aggression; it also involves the strategic use of civilian and military resources to project power and influence globally. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Military-Civil Fusion (MCF), and the acquisition of key infrastructure such as ports and telecommunications networks, China is reshaping the geopolitical landscape to its advantage. For Europe, understanding and addressing the implications of this silent war is not just a matter of economic security but a question of sovereignty and resilience in the face of a rapidly changing global order.
This article delves into the tactics and effects of China's Liminal Warfare against Europe, exploring the risks posed by its economic strategies, technological ambitions, and military maneuvers. It also highlights the critical dependencies that have emerged, from rare earth materials to green energy technologies, and outlines the urgent need for a coordinated European response to safeguard its future.
Over the past twenty years, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has made extraordinary progress, transforming from an emerging economy into the world's second-largest economic power. This achievement has been realized through a combination of industrial modernization, trade expansion, and aggressive economic strategies. However, behind this growth lies a series of practices that violate global norms, threatening the economic and political stability of other nations, including the European Union (EU).
China's Economic Growth: A Controversial Success
Since 2001, the year of its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), China's foreign trade has grown nearly twelvefold, from $509 billion to $6.16 trillion in 2024. The trade surplus reached a record $992.1 billion, while GDP exceeded $18 trillion. However, this growth has often been accompanied by market-distorting policies, such as dumping, intellectual property theft, and manipulation of global supply chains.
Xi Jinping's Vision: Global Dominance
Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, China has adopted a more assertive and strategic approach. The Chinese government has outlined a long-term plan to ensure global dominance in key sectors such as technology and industry. Among the most significant initiatives are:
Made in China 2025: A plan to transform China into a global leader in advanced technology sectors.
China Standards 2035: An initiative to establish global technological standards that favor Chinese companies.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): A global infrastructure project aimed at extending China's economic and political influence.
Military-Civil Fusion (MCF): A Strategic Threat
The strategy of Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) is one of China's most powerful tools to strengthen the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). This strategy involves integrating civilian and military resources to gain technological and military advantages. Through MCF, China exfiltrates advanced technologies from around the world, using them to bolster its totalitarian regime and pursue global domination.
Control of Ports: A Military and Commercial Strategy
One of the most concerning aspects of China's strategy is its growing control over global ports and maritime infrastructure. Chinese state-owned companies, often linked to the CCP and PLA, have acquired significant stakes in strategic ports worldwide, including in Europe. This control is not only economic but also has military and security implications.
Chinese Presence in Mediterranean Ports
The Mediterranean is a region of strategic importance for global trade and European security. China has heavily invested in key ports in the region, including:
Piraeus (Greece): Managed by COSCO, the port of Piraeus has become a central hub for Chinese trade with Europe. However, its proximity to NATO bases raises security concerns.
Italian Ports: China has shown interest in ports such as Trieste and Genoa, which serve as strategic access points for European trade.
North African Ports: China has invested in ports in Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco, strengthening its presence in the region and increasing its power projection capabilities.
Security Risks in the Mediterranean
China's growing presence in Mediterranean ports poses several risks:
Espionage and Surveillance: Ports managed by Chinese companies can be used to gather information on military and commercial operations in the region.
Military Power Projection: China can use the ports to support naval operations, increasing its military influence in the Mediterranean.
Control of Trade Routes: By controlling ports, China can influence global trade routes, creating economic dependencies.
Risks for European Businesses and Strategic Dependencies
In addition to geopolitical risks, China's presence poses a direct threat to European businesses. Chinese laws, such as the 2017 National Intelligence Law, require Chinese companies to cooperate with the government on security matters, increasing the risks of industrial espionage and intellectual property theft.
European Dependencies on China
Europe is heavily dependent on China in several strategic sectors, including:
Critical Raw Materials: China controls a significant portion of the global production of rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and other materials essential for the technology and automotive industries. For example:
97% of the magnesium used in Europe comes from China.
China produces 94% of the world's gallium and 60% of refined lithium.
Consumer Electronics: Most electronic components, such as printed circuit boards (PCBs), diodes, and resistors, are manufactured in China. These components are essential for Europe's technology industry.
Green Energy: China is the world leader in the production of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries for electric vehicles. European companies in the renewable energy sector are heavily dependent on Chinese suppliers, increasing the risks of monopoly and price manipulation.
Pharmaceuticals: China is a key supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients, creating a critical dependency for Europe's healthcare sector.
Automotive: Dependence on Chinese batteries and electronic components poses a significant risk to Europe's automotive industry.
Final Recommendations for the EU, National Governments, Companies, and NATO
To effectively counter the challenges posed by China's Liminal Warfare and safeguard Europe's strategic autonomy, a coordinated and multi-level response is essential. Below are tailored recommendations for the European Union, individual governments, businesses, and NATO:
Recommendations for the European Union (EU):
Diversify Supply Chains:
Reduce dependency on China for critical raw materials, such as rare earths, lithium, and cobalt, by investing in alternative suppliers and fostering partnerships with resource-rich countries.
Promote the development of domestic production and recycling capabilities for critical materials.
Strengthen Regulatory Frameworks:
Expand and enforce foreign investment screening mechanisms to prevent Chinese state-linked entities from acquiring critical infrastructure, such as ports, telecommunications, and energy assets.
Introduce stricter controls on technology transfers and intellectual property protection to safeguard European innovation.
Enhance Strategic Autonomy:
Invest in research and development (R&D) to reduce reliance on Chinese technology in sectors like green energy, telecommunications (5G/6G), and artificial intelligence.
Support European industries in developing competitive alternatives to Chinese products, particularly in renewable energy and advanced manufacturing.
Promote Unity Among Member States:
Establish a unified EU strategy to address China's influence, ensuring that all member states adhere to common policies on trade, investment, and security.
Strengthen collaboration with like-minded partners, such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, to counterbalance China's global ambitions.
Recommendations for National Governments:
Protect Critical Infrastructure:
Conduct comprehensive risk assessments of Chinese involvement in national infrastructure, including ports, telecommunications, and energy grids.
Implement measures to limit Chinese access to sensitive sectors, such as defense, cybersecurity, and transportation.
Support Domestic Industries:
Provide incentives for local companies to invest in strategic sectors, such as green energy, advanced technology, and pharmaceuticals, to reduce reliance on Chinese imports.
Encourage public-private partnerships to foster innovation and resilience in critical industries.
Enhance Cybersecurity:
Strengthen national cybersecurity frameworks to protect against potential threats from Chinese technology providers, particularly in 5G networks and data infrastructure.
Monitor and regulate the use of Chinese platforms, such as LOGINK, to prevent data breaches and espionage.
Educate and Raise Awareness:
Inform policymakers, businesses, and the public about the risks associated with China's Liminal Warfare tactics, including economic coercion and technological dependencies.
Promote transparency in dealings with Chinese entities to ensure accountability and mitigate risks.
Recommendations for European Companies:
Assess Supply Chain Risks:
Conduct thorough audits of supply chains to identify vulnerabilities related to Chinese suppliers and diversify sourcing where possible.
Develop contingency plans to mitigate disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions or trade restrictions.
Protect Intellectual Property:
Strengthen internal policies to safeguard intellectual property (IP) and sensitive data, particularly when operating in or collaborating with Chinese entities.
Avoid partnerships that require forced technology transfers or compromise proprietary knowledge.
Invest in Innovation:
Prioritize investments in R&D to reduce reliance on Chinese technology and maintain a competitive edge in global markets.
Collaborate with European research institutions and governments to develop cutting-edge solutions in strategic sectors.
Monitor Regulatory Compliance:
Stay informed about evolving EU and national regulations regarding foreign investments, cybersecurity, and trade with China.
Ensure compliance with export controls and restrictions on dual-use technologies.
Recommendations for NATO:
Strengthen Maritime Security:
Monitor and address the strategic implications of Chinese control over key ports in Europe and the Mediterranean, which could be used for military purposes.
Enhance naval cooperation among NATO members to secure critical sea lanes and counter potential threats from Chinese naval activities.
Integrate Economic Security into Defense Planning:
Recognize the role of economic dependencies and infrastructure vulnerabilities in national and collective security strategies.
Collaborate with the EU to align defense and economic policies, ensuring a comprehensive approach to countering China's influence.
Enhance Cyber Defense Capabilities:
Develop joint NATO-EU initiatives to protect critical infrastructure from cyberattacks and espionage linked to Chinese technology providers.
Share intelligence on cyber threats and vulnerabilities to strengthen collective resilience.
Expand Partnerships Beyond Europe:
Deepen cooperation with Indo-Pacific allies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, to address the global dimensions of China's Liminal Warfare.
Support capacity-building efforts in partner countries to counter Chinese influence in regions like Africa and the Middle East.
Conclusion
China's Liminal Warfare represents a complex and multifaceted challenge that requires a unified and strategic response at all levels. The EU, national governments, businesses, and NATO must work together to address the economic, technological, and military risks posed by China's actions. By diversifying supply chains, protecting critical infrastructure, and fostering innovation, Europe can reduce its dependencies and strengthen its resilience. At the same time, enhanced collaboration with global partners will be essential to counterbalance China's ambitions and safeguard the principles of a rules-based international order.
Technology Theft: European companies operating in China or collaborating with Chinese partners are exposed to the risk of forced technology transfers.
Economic Dependencies: Dependence on Chinese suppliers for critical raw materials and components puts European businesses in a vulnerable position.
Regulatory Risks: Chinese cybersecurity and data protection laws can be used to access sensitive information from foreign companies.
The Need for a European Response
To address these challenges, the EU must take urgent measures to reduce critical dependencies, strengthen economic security, and promote reciprocity in relations with China. Necessary actions include:
Diversification of Supply Chains: Reducing dependence on China for raw materials and critical components.
Strengthening Regulations: Introducing stricter controls on foreign investments and Chinese participation in critical infrastructure.
International Collaboration: Building alliances with like-minded countries to counter China's influence.
Conclusion
China is waging a "liminal war" against Europe, using a combination of economic, technological, and military tools to expand its global influence. Europe's dependencies on China in strategic sectors such as rare earths, consumer electronics, green energy, and pharmaceuticals represent a significant threat. To protect its sovereignty and security, the EU must adopt a strategic and coordinated approach, strengthening its defenses and promoting greater economic and technological autonomy.
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