Beijing Secures the Supply Chain: Analysis of China's Plan for Non-Ferrous Metal Self-Sufficiency

On September 28, China launched the “Work Plan for the Stable Growth of the Non-Ferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026).” This document, issued by eight government departments, is a kind of manual for technological self-sufficiency and geopolitical resilience. The Plan aims for an average annual growth in the sector's added value of around 5%. Openly recognizing that the main constraints to development lie in the lack of resource security, insufficient high-end supply, and increasing external shocks, Beijing is adopting a two-speed strategy to support its self-sufficiency strategy and the creation of its “new quality productive forces” (新质生产力).

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The Geoeconomic Posture: Asymmetric Dominance

The non-ferrous metals industry (Copper, Aluminum, Lithium, Rare Earths, etc.) is the foundation of the energy transition, digitalization, and critical technologies. China holds a dominant yet vulnerable position.

China's True Leverage: Its hegemony does not stem from extraction—where it remains reliant on imports for many minerals—but from the near-monopolistic control over the refining and processing stages into advanced materials (the midstream and downstream of the chain). This control creates a strategic bottleneck that grants it immense global bargaining power. The goal is clear: reinforce resource security and the supply of high-end products to make Chinese industry impervious to decoupling and external pressures.

Non-Ferrous Metals: The Levers of Chinese Technological Sovereignty

Non-ferrous metals are the functional backbone of China, essential for modernization and winning the geotechnological competition. They enable Beijing to:

1. Secure Dominance in Future Industries

These materials are the key components for sectors where China aims for unchallenged control, such as new energy vehicles (NEV) and information technology. The action is geared toward promoting the development of ultra-high-purity metals, high-strength and resilient Aluminum, and high-conductivity and corrosion-resistant Copper for advanced electronics. There's a push to expand the use of Magnesium alloy for forged wheels and large integrated castings in components like NEV motor housings.

It is crucial to accelerate the verification and application of high-purity Gallium, Tungsten hard alloy, and materials for solid-state batteries. The Plan supports innovation in frontier materials such as superconducting materials, liquid metals, and high-entropy alloys. These elements are fundamental for emerging sectors like advanced electronics, humanoid robotics, and the low-altitude economy.

2. Create Self-Sufficiency Against Geopolitical Risk

The Plan uses these metals as a means to reduce vulnerability amidst a climate of increasing commercial hostility. The commitment is to implement a new round of strategic mineral exploration actions for Copper, Aluminum, Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, and Tin. Concurrently, it targets a production goal of recycled metals exceeding 20 million tons, promoting the development of recycled resource recovery bases and the reuse of waste such as retired power batteries and photovoltaic modules. This move creates a strategically controlled internal reserve (the "urban mine") that mitigates reliance on global markets. The push for high-end products is supported by a commitment to import primary products like anode copper and alumina and conformant recycled resources.

3. Leverage Industrial Upgrading

The sector is a tool to transform Chinese industry from a carbon-intensive model to a digital, green, and efficient one. The aim is for energy-saving and carbon-reduction retrofits in sectors like alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and copper/lead/zinc smelting, accelerating the replacement of outdated equipment. The supply of higher quality products not only improves performance but drives and creates new domestic demand in line with consumption expansion goals.

Forecast and Strategic Actions (2025–2026)

The operational measures of the Plan translate into clear future strategic directives.

For Internal Resilience (Defense), the implementation of new strategic mineral exploration actions and the recycled metals production target aim to reduce reliance on raw material imports, internalizing supply risk through the creation of the "urban mine."

Under Technological Offense (Quality), an acceleration in the application of rare metals in emerging sectors is expected. The promotion of "5G + Industrial Internet" and the "Artificial Intelligence + Non-Ferrous Metals" action is crucial: China will use sector-specific AI models (e.g., for optimizing electrolysis, precise sorting, and quality control) to ensure proprietary know-how and overcome technological decoupling.

Finally, for Global Competition (Influence), China will guide the compliant export of high-value processed products and deepen cooperation with "Belt and Road Initiative" countries. The goal is to use its production leadership to strengthen its regulatory influence (participation in international standards setting for lithium, rare earth, and magnesium) and its industrial presence abroad, while negotiating long-term agreements to stabilize import flows.

In summary, the Plan 2025–2026 is not just a stimulus package, but the manual for the next cycle of strategic dominance by China over the global technological value chain.