Beyond the “dictators”: what really drives the Russia-China axis?

The Great Realignment: Discovering the Deep Roots of the Russia-China Partnership

The relationship between Russia and China has transformed from a tactical partnership to a long-term strategic alignment, serving as a pillar for the formation of a new multipolar world order. Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions prompted Moscow's decisive "turn to the East," strengthening its ties with Beijing. Russian scholars, including A.F. Klimenko, V.E. Petrovsky, and V.A. Matveev, agree that this realignment is not merely a response to current events but a sign of converging strategic interests. Their shared goals include countering the global hegemony of the United States and its allies, building a new security architecture based on non-Western principles, and reforming global economic and financial institutions.

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin meets with China's President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 3, 2024. (Photo by Sergei GUNEYEV / POOL / AFP) (Photo by SERGEI GUNEYEV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Geopolitical Analysis: The Partnership in a Changing World

According to A.F. Klimenko in his article "Russia and China: Towards a New World Order," China holds a "neutral-benevolent" position on the Ukraine conflict, due to its economic ties with the West. However, Klimenko suggests this neutrality could change if Washington provokes a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In such a scenario, Beijing might provide military support to Moscow, and Russia would reciprocate on the Taiwan issue, a possibility envisioned in Article 9 of the Russian-Chinese Treaty on Good-Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation. This potential military synergy is a key factor for intelligence analysis. Joint naval exercises in the Pacific and Baltic Seas indicate a growing military alignment aimed at balancing the naval presence of the United States and its allies.

The Strategic Importance of Maritime Routes

The area of greatest competition and potential confrontation is that of global maritime routes, where both countries' geoeconomic ambitions are evident.

V.E. Petrovsky, in his article "Russia, China, and the 'Right of Innocent Passage' in World Navigation: International Political and Legal Aspects," analyzes the confrontation in two strategic areas:

• The South China Sea (SCS): China, based on its national legislation, claims that foreign warships need permission to enter its territorial waters.

• The Northern Sea Route (NSR): Russia has declared the NSR a "unified national transport communication". Russian law imposes strict rules for transit, such as a 90-day prior notification for foreign military vessels. This policy of extending its control over a strategic maritime route, in contrast to Western doctrines, suggests that intelligence agencies should closely monitor the Arctic as a potential new front, similar to the South China Sea.

  
  

The Economic Dimension: BRI, EAEU, and Central Asian Competition

Eurasia is another critical area where the two countries' strategies overlap. V.A. Matveev, in his article "New Strategic Initiatives of China for the Integration of Greater Central Asia," describes how China, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is economically and infrastructurally integrating the region with the goal of "building a golden corridor between Asia and Europe." Matveev highlights the strategic role of the Xinjiang autonomous region, which Beijing is turning into a "cross-border hub" and a "pole of economic growth".

Russia, on the other hand, dominates the region through its Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the CSTO. While Matveev acknowledges that cooperation between the BRI and EAEU can bring mutual benefits, he doesn't hide the potential for competition between the two powers for influence over Central Asian countries. This scenario poses a challenge for Russian intelligence, which must balance economic dependence on China to avoid becoming a junior partner in a Beijing-dominated union.

The Proposal for a New Financial Order: The Asian Monetary Fund (AMF)

Complementing the strategic partnership is a growing discontent with existing international financial institutions, particularly the IMF and the World Bank. According to

Shahida Wizarat, in her article "Asia Looks Towards China for the Establishment of the Asian Monetary Fund," the governance of these institutions lacks transparency and legitimacy. The author notes that decisions are still made by the U.S. and EU, while the rising contributions of countries like China and Russia are not reflected in their voting power.

Wizarat proposes the creation of an Asian Monetary Fund (AMF), based on "Confucian principles of good governance." This fund would serve as a vital alternative for developing nations damaged by the policies of the IMF and World Bank. The author suggests that China, with its vast foreign currency reserves, could fund the AMF. This step would be crucial for China to protect its investments from potential escalations with the U.S. and to assert its global economic leadership.

China's "Soft Power": The Cultural Concept of Xi Jinping

Beijing's strategy is not limited to economics and security, but also includes a significant cultural dimension, as analyzed by Alla Verchenko in "Xi Jinping Cultural Concept: for China and the World" The Russian scholar describes Xi Jinping's new cultural concept for the "new era," a theoretical and ideological framework aimed at strengthening the Communist Party of China's (CPC) influence both domestically and internationally.

Domestically, the concept seeks to consolidate the Chinese nation and promote the values of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Internationally, culture is seen as a crucial

"soft power" tool to create a positive image of China and ensure a favorable external environment for its internal development. Verchenko points out that despite China's efforts, the ideological nature of the concept may limit its universal appeal and has led to criticism and the closure of some Chinese cultural centers in the West.

Conclusions: An Axis in Formation with Clear Objectives

The analysis of these sources confirms a consistent picture of profound geopolitical change. The Russia-China axis is reshaping global power, using platforms like the

BRICS and the SCO to build a new security and cooperation architecture outside of Western control. Their partnership, while not a formal military alliance, is a strategic union aimed at redefining the rules of the international game. For intelligence agencies, it is crucial to understand not just the individual actions of the two countries, but their

strategic interaction, which is shaping a multipolar future.