China: The Birth of a Drone Superpower

• China is rapidly redefining the warfare landscape with its leadership in the drone industry, a fact that worries the United States and its allies. The recent Pentagon report highlights how the Chinese military is closing the gap with the U.S. military, especially in the production and use of unmanned aerial systems (UAS).

• Beijing boasts an unprecedented drone production capacity, with estimates of hundreds of thousands per month, a figure already demonstrated by the extensive use of Chinese drones (including modified civilians) in current conflicts. Technological innovation is equally impressive, with drones such as the long-range Scorpion and the Jiu Tian bomber, capable of releasing swarms of missiles or smaller drones. These capabilities have even impressed figures like Elon Musk.

• China has anticipated the importance of "smart warfare" by integrating it into its defense strategy as early as 2019. Advanced drones such as the WZ-7 and WZ-8 scouts, and the GJ-11 stealth fighter aircraft have been developed. The recent Zhuhai Air Show 2024 showed the extent of this evolution, with new models and the revolutionary Jiu Tian SS-UAV drone carrier, the world's first designed to launch hundreds of drones automatically.

• The concept of drone swarms is at the heart of China's "cluster warfare" strategy, enabling saturation attacks and complex defenses. This dominance has led the United States to consider restrictions on Chinese drones, fearing national security risks despite the high quality and low cost of DJI products.

• Despite concerns about domestic corruption and logistical challenges highlighted by the Pentagon, China aims to complete military modernization by 2035, with an intermediate target at 2027 to project its force in the Indo-Pacific and, according to some, to push Taiwan to negotiate on its terms. The drone arms race is set to intensify, with profound implications for global security.

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In recent years, China has emerged as an undisputed leader in drone development and production, a sector that's revolutionizing the global security landscape. Recent large-scale swarm drone exercises conducted by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) have put a spotlight on this capability, raising concerns in the United States and among its allies.

A Rapidly Ascending Military Power

The U.S. Department of Defense, in its annual report on China's military power released on December 18, 2024, highlighted Beijing's significant progress in transforming the PLA into an "increasingly powerful national force." The goal is to develop the military capabilities needed to fight and win against "capable adversaries," while projecting power and influence worldwide. In particular, the Pentagon concluded that the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is rapidly closing the gap with the U.S. Air Force in key areas like the production and deployment of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS). "The Chinese Air Force is rapidly approaching U.S. standards in terms of modernization and indigenization of UAV systems," a senior U.S. defense official stated on December 16.

Unprecedented Production Capacity and Technological Innovation

The most striking figure concerns China's production capacity: Rosatom estimates that China can produce 500,000 FPV drones per month, expandable to 700,000 in wartime. Some experts even consider this figure conservative, underscoring the extraordinary efficiency of Chinese industry. This capacity isn't just theoretical: since January 2023, Russia has cumulatively imported up to 40,000 Chinese civilian drones, which have been modified and used for military purposes by various global actors, including both Russia and Ukraine. These drones, equipped with specific projectiles, can penetrate 400mm of homogeneous armor, significantly increasing their combat effectiveness.

China isn't just focused on mass production; it also excels in technological innovation. The double-tailed Scorpion drone, developed by Sichuan Tengdun Technology Company, boasts a maximum range of 7,000 kilometers and, when equipped with a TS20 cruise missile, can strike targets up to 8,000 kilometers away, approaching intercontinental missile capabilities. Even more impressive is the Jiu Tian uncrewed bomber, with a maximum takeoff weight of 16 tons and a maximum payload of 6 tons. Its heterogeneous honeycomb mission module can carry hundreds of cruise missiles or small drones, enabling saturation attacks on the battlefield with bombing power comparable to light and medium fighters.

The impact of these technologies was effectively summarized by Elon Musk, who, after seeing a Chinese swarm drone display, declared: "Meanwhile, some idiot is still building crewed fighters like the F-35."

China's Strategy: Pioneers of "Intelligent Warfare"

Long before recent conflicts highlighted the growing role of uncrewed combat vehicles, China had already integrated uncrewed systems into its strategic planning. China's 2019 Defense White Paper emphasizes the trend toward developing long-range precision, intelligent, stealth, or uncrewed weapons or equipment, predicting that "intelligent war is on the horizon."

China has developed a wide range of uncrewed systems for both attack and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. Chinese drone systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated and are now systematically deployed in advanced operational theater commands, while the U.S. military regularly employs such systems at the tactical level. China's Wing Loong and Caihong (CH) series have become benchmark platforms globally, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. High-altitude reconnaissance drones include the Soaring Dragon and Cloud Shadow.

The Pentagon credits China with achieving several key milestones in the development of its uncrewed aerial systems over the past three years. These include the deployment of the high-altitude, long-endurance Guizhou WZ-7 jet, the debut of the AVIC WZ-8 supersonic aerial reconnaissance platform, and a redesigned version of the Shenyang Hongdu GJ-11, which the Pentagon describes as a stealth uncrewed combat aircraft. Early versions of the GJ-11 had two internal weapons bays, each capable of carrying four glide bombs. Although the Sword has rarely been seen in public, it was transported by truck during a military parade in 2019 and was displayed at the Zhuhai Airshow in 2021. It's speculated that the tailless winged model will be paired with a two-seater version of the Chengdu J-20 fighter.

Dominance at Zhuhai Air Show 2024 and New Platforms

The Zhuhai Air Show 2024 provided an exceptional showcase of China's dominance in the drone and military aviation sector. Among the new developments presented were the CH-9, a large armed reconnaissance drone with a range of 11,500 kilometers and 40 hours of flight time, and the CH-7, the latest upgraded version of the stealth early warning drone. The low-cost CH-3D and the CH-YH1000 cargo drone were also exhibited.

Another notable innovation is the "Mother of all drones," a platform capable of carrying smaller drones internally. The Jetank, a heavy drone debuted at the Zhuhai Air Show, with a maximum takeoff weight of 16 tons and a maximum payload of six tons, can carry missiles, bombs, and smaller drones, earning it the nickname "swarm carrier." This next-generation uncrewed platform features eight hardpoints and can change mission modules using different modular payloads, providing battlefield situational awareness and satellite-enabled remote control capabilities. Its "cluster delivery" capability from honeycomb modules is particularly noteworthy.

Several conventional fighters were also showcased, including the carrier-capable Shenyang J-15T and the Shenyang J-35A, a fifth-generation twin-engine fighter closely resembling Lockheed Martin's F-35. The Pentagon stated that "a growing number of autonomous and collaborative systems, including those for combat applications, are being displayed at air shows and trade fairs." Notably, China has shown interest in expanding its UAS capabilities from traditional functions like reconnaissance and electronic warfare to more complex areas like air-to-air and air-to-ground combat.

Drone Aircraft Carrier and Naval Development

Further evidence of China's drone leadership is the recent unveiling of the Jiu Tian SS-UAV aircraft carrier, described by state media as the world's first aircraft carrier capable of instantly deploying hundreds of automated drones. This "high-altitude mothership," developed by AVIC in collaboration with Shaanxi Unmanned Equipment Technology and Haige Communications, was first showcased at the 15th Zhuhai Airshow and is expected to make its maiden test flight in June 2025. The Jiu Tian is designed as a force multiplier for China's drone warfare capabilities, although questions remain about its ability to circumvent modern air defense systems.

The Pentagon's report also highlighted the growth of China's domestic aviation industry, with continued deliveries of the Xi'an Yun-20 strategic transport aircraft and the completion of the world's largest seaplane, the AVIC AG600. These transports will supplement and eventually replace the PLA's small fleet of strategic aircraft. Production and delivery of the Shaanxi Airborne Alert-500 aircraft are also proceeding "apace," according to the report, with at least one prototype recently fitted with an aerial refueling probe to extend its range and endurance.

In naval aviation, the report notes that China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, is expected to enter service in 2025 after completing sea trials this year. The Fujian is the first to use electromagnetic catapults for aircraft launch, similar to the latest Ford-class aircraft carriers in the U.S. Navy. The Pentagon observed that the Chinese Navy is enhancing its operational capabilities beyond the first island chain of Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines through increased use of aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships with helicopters. The Type 076 Yulan, expected to join China's naval fleet in the second half of this century, is equipped with a catapult-launched uncrewed aerial system.

Drone Swarms and "Cluster Warfare"

The concept of drone swarms represents one of the most significant evolutions. These coordinated systems, comprising at least three and potentially thousands of drones, can perform missions autonomously with minimal human supervision. By leveraging collective intelligence and integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), drone swarms can overcome complex obstacles and maintain synchronized operations. Their proliferation, driven by low cost, implies that virtually any group with the means to assemble and launch a swarm could unleash chaos, without needing expensive jets or imposing missile installations. The Pentagon claims that the PLA is massively developing "cluster warfare capabilities," systems aimed at identifying and destroying penetrating threats to air defense assets.

Key Chinese Military Drone Companies

The primary Chinese companies producing military drones are largely state-controlled and operate within an ecosystem that integrates academic research, large industrial clusters, and the Armed Forces (PLA). Among the most prominent are:

• Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC): A state-owned aerospace giant, AVIC develops and produces leading military drones such as the Wing Loong series and the Soar Dragon, as well as innovative projects like the Jetank and the Jiu Tian SS-UAV drone aircraft carrier.

• China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC): Another major state-owned conglomerate in the aerospace and defense sector, CASC is the manufacturer of the Caihong (CH) drone series, including the CH-7, CH-9, and CH-3D.

• Sichuan Tengdun Technology Company: Known for developing advanced drones like the double-tailed Scorpion drone, featuring impressive range and missile carrying capabilities.

• Shaanxi Unmanned Equipment Technology and Haige Communications: These companies collaborate with AVIC on strategic projects such as the Jiu Tian SS-UAV drone aircraft carrier, contributing advanced technology and communication systems.

It's important to note that while DJI is a leader in the civilian and professional drone market, its products have been widely modified and used for military purposes by various global actors, demonstrating the broad impact of the Chinese drone industry.

U.S. Concerns and Countermeasures

The Pentagon observes that the PLA's combined air and naval force (PLAN) is the largest air force in the Western Pacific and the third largest globally, with over 3,150 aircraft (excluding trainers and drones), of which approximately 2,400 are fighters, bombers, or attack aircraft. This growth has prompted the U.S. to develop its own capabilities, with the Air Force launching the Cooperative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program for autonomous fighter production, and the Army testing a new series of UAVs to support its ground combat forces. The USAF is testing two finalists for its first-generation CCA, with UAV manufacturers General Atomics Aeronautical Systems and Anduril as competitors.

The U.S. has expressed growing concerns about the threat posed by Chinese drones. The Trump administration had already planned executive orders to limit the sale of Chinese drones like DJI and Autel, urging U.S. intelligence to accelerate national security reviews. Although an outright ban was not imposed, a defense bill for fiscal year 2025 mandates that the U.S. assess whether communication and video surveillance equipment produced by DJI and Autel Robotics "poses an 'unacceptable risk' to U.S. national security" by December 23, 2024. Otherwise, DJI products would automatically be added to the FCC's list of products not sold in the U.S.

DJI has consistently advocated for policies based on technological merit and product safety, rather than country of origin, and is committed to working with relevant government authorities to ensure decisions are made based on the quality and safety of its products. Despite the existence of domestic drone manufacturers in the U.S., such as Skydio, DJI's sales far exceed those of its competitors, highlighting its dominant position in the global market.

Internal Challenges and Long-Term Objectives

Despite these advancements, China's path isn't without obstacles. A senior U.S. defense official noted that state media continues to highlight deficiencies among PLA commanders and personnel, as well as a lack of key areas needed for victory in regional conflicts, such as long-range logistics and urban warfare. The Pentagon's report also highlighted what the senior official called "significant corruption challenges" within the PLA over the past year. At least 15 senior Chinese military officers and defense industry executives have been removed from their posts due to corruption, many of whom were responsible for overseeing projects related to the modernization of China's conventional and nuclear missile forces, including former Defense Minister Li Shangfu.

According to an official statement by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Beijing currently aims to complete its military modernization by 2035. Official Chinese media, citing anonymous military and government sources, have set an interim goal for 2027 to deploy forces in the Indo-Pacific region capable of countering U.S. forces. The Pentagon claims that the 2027 objective also includes a secondary goal: "to compel Taiwan's leadership to negotiate on Beijing's terms."

China, as an industrial superpower, holds a tremendous advantage in drone production and application. This capability, combined with its strategic vision of "intelligent warfare" and the introduction of innovative platforms like the Jiu Tian drone aircraft carrier, is redefining global military dynamics. The issue is no longer just about technological superiority, but also the capacity to produce drones in quantities sufficient to overwhelm any defense. The implications for international security are profound, and the drone arms race is set to intensify.