Russia on China's Military: An Analysis of the 2024 Modernization

R.A. Polonchuk's essay, “Defense Policy and Development of the Military-Industrial Complex of the People's Republic of China in 2024,” argues that China in 2024 has intensified military modernization, focusing on technologies and organizational reforms to counter perceived threats from the United States. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has reorganized its forces, creating the Information Support Force (ISF) and increasing defense spending. The Chinese military-industrial complex has continued to strengthen its position as a global power, with significant advances in the aviation, missile, and naval sectors, while intensifying cooperation with Russia

In 2024, the defense policy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) focused on achieving technological superiority and maintaining a balance of power in Northeast Asia. The Chinese military modernization program continued to drive up national defense spending, with a proposed budget of 1.67 trillion yuan (US$231.5 billion), marking a 7.2% increase from the previous year. This growth is consistent with the figures from 2023 and the ten-year average of 7.5%.

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According to Russian analysts, the direction of China's military modernization is primarily aimed at countering perceived threats from the United States. This is evident in the intensive structural and technological reforms within the People's Liberation Army (PLA), designed to create a highly cohesive and advanced military apparatus by 2049, as part of the "National Defense Modernization Program".

Organizational Reforms and Increased Discipline

In 2024, China's defense policy included optimizing the PLA's organizational structure, a process that began in late 2016. The goal of these measures is to improve cohesion in modern operations and facilitate faster decision-making by the members of the Central Military Commission (CMC).

A key element was the strengthening of party control and discipline. A campaign launched in 2023 to vet senior officials' loyalty and discipline continued, leading to the removal and prosecution of former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu. High-ranking officers from the PLA Rocket Force were also investigated for "serious disciplinary violations". This suggests a large-scale anti-corruption investigation is ongoing within the PLA.

The most significant reform was the dissolution of the Strategic Support Force (SSF), established in 2015. The SSF was responsible for conducting all types of intelligence. While no official reason was given for its disbandment, analysts believe it was due to the SSF's inefficiency in coordinating joint operations and providing reliable intelligence. In its place, the Information Support Force (ISF) was created^. President Xi Jinping called the ISF a "brand new type of strategic force" (全新打造的战略性兵种), tasked with coordinating the development and application of cyber-information systems to ensure victory in modern wars. The ISF is directly subordinate to the CMC. This structural change aims to improve the effectiveness of joint operations.

Development of the Military-Industrial Complex

The Chinese military-industrial complex (MIC) continued to grow, strengthening China's position as a global military power and one of the leading arms exporters. The Chinese MIC has a comprehensive internal structure, including high-tech sectors like nuclear, missile, aerospace, and electronics. China currently has ten major state corporations that develop and produce armaments.

Aviation Sector

Aviation industries worked to upgrade the PLA Air Force's fleet. The Y-20A heavy military transport aircraft was equipped with the domestically produced WS-20 turbofan engine. A modified version, theY-20B, underwent flight tests in 2024 and is expected to become a platform for a new Chinese AWACS aircraft. Production of the J-20 heavy multi-role fighter continued, and flight tests began for a two-seat variant with the new WS-15 turbofan engine.

Development of the fifth-generation J-35 fighter, designed for aircraft carriers, also progressed. A variant, the J-35A, was presented to the public and is intended for the PLA Air Force. Future prospects include the design of a vertical take-off and landing aircraft (possibly designated J-18) and a naval tiltrotor. However, the study notes that due to China's lack of practical experience in these areas, the appearance of combat prototypes is unlikely within the next five years. The expansion of drone production is also a key focus, with the PLA receiving new long-range reconnaissance drones like the WZ-7.

Missile and Space Systems

China made significant progress in its cruise missile program. While it primarily exports older, lighter anti-ship missiles (ASM), its armed forces are now using new-generation supersonic missiles like the Yingji-12 (YJ-12). The YJ-12 can be launched from air, sea, and land platforms.

In the space sector, the Chinese company Changguang Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. (CGSTL) launched the "Jilin-1" satellite, which has reconnaissance capabilities. China claims this achievement puts it on par with Western capabilities in opto-electronic reconnaissance, making it a direct competitor to SpaceX's Starshield constellation. The PLA is CGSTL's main client.

Naval Sector

China consolidated its shipbuilding industry by merging the two largest state-owned companies, China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC), to eliminate unnecessary competition.

For the naval fleet, a new Type-055 class destroyer was launched in June. The third Chinese aircraft carrier, the "Fujian" (hull number 18), began its first sea trials in May. Unlike the first two carriers, "Liaoning" and "Shandong," the "Fujian" uses a catapult launch system. A fourth, even larger aircraft carrier is also believed to be under construction. Furthermore, the study mentions the continued production and modification of new-generation submarines, including nuclear (Project 096 and 095) and conventional ones.

Civil-Military Integration and Outlook

Civil-military integration (军民融合), a core element of China's development strategy, continued to advance. In 2023, the Ministry of Science and Technology spent over 3.3 trillion yuan (US$458.6 billion) on R&D, an 8.1% increase from the previous year. However, Russian analysts note that the growth of China's MIC still heavily relies on foreign dual-use technologies, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is limited by US export controls.

Despite this, civil-military integration is contributing to the growth of Chinese defense exports and military-technical cooperation, especially with African nations like Nigeria and Uganda.

In conclusion, Russian scholars believe that China is moving toward a "modernized" army by 2035 and a "world-class" military by 2050. The ongoing reforms, increasing military capabilities, and continuous development of the MIC indicate that China will continue to pursue technological self-sufficiency in military production to achieve its strategic goals.