Starlink in Iran: Musk, his power, and geopolitical maneuvers

The relationship between technology, politics, and the ambitions of figures like Elon Musk has continued to reshape global balances. Musk's offer to bring Starlink to Iran has put a spotlight on several crucial issues, from the role of soft power technology to tensions between Washington and the entrepreneur. A White House investigation into SpaceX contracts, along with the issue of internet disruptions in conflicts, has painted a complex and evolving picture.

Musk's offer and the details of Starlink in Iran

At the heart of this discussion has been Elon Musk's offer, through his company SpaceX, to provide access to Starlink in Iran. This proposal emerged during a period of major protests and unrest in the country, where the Iranian government has often limited or interrupted internet access to suppress dissent and control the flow of information.

The founder of SpaceX announced the reactivation of his satellite internet service in Iran on Saturday, June 14, responding on X to Fox News commentator Mark Levin with the message "the beams are on" (meaning the satellites are sending the internet signal towards Iran). Levin had publicly urged Musk to activate Starlink to offer Iranians internet access uncontrolled by the government, after Tehran had limited national connectivity for security reasons.

It's not the first time Musk has activated Starlink in Iran to support the population during a crisis. The service had already been made available in 2022 during protests following Mahsa Amini's death and was then suspended. The new activation came after Israeli military attacks on June 13 against Iranian nuclear facilities, which prompted the Tehran government to impose temporary restrictions on national internet access. According to NetBlocks, an organization that monitors global digital freedom, these limitations caused an approximately 50% reduction in international internet traffic from Iran. The regime adopted this strategy to prevent the dissemination of information about military damage sustained and to prevent potential popular protests against the government.

Starlink is a constellation of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) designed to offer broadband internet. It's particularly useful in remote areas or where terrestrial infrastructure is scarce or nonexistent. Its ability to bypass state-controlled telecommunications infrastructure has made it a potentially powerful tool for freedom of information in authoritarian regimes.

Musk's offer, while appearing to be a humanitarian gesture or support for free speech, has been met with skepticism by some and hope by others. Its potential impact in Iran would be significant. It could bypass state censorship, offering internet access independent of the Iranian government's infrastructure, making it harder to block websites, social media, or limit bandwidth. It would be crucial support for protest movements, giving activists and demonstrators stable and uncensored internet access to organize, communicate, and disseminate information. Finally, it has represented a challenge to digital sovereignty, introducing an internet service external to state control and raising complex questions about government control over its information space.

Practical obstacles to Starlink use for Iranian users

Despite the activation of Starlink's "signal beams," the practical use of the service by Iranian citizens has presented significant and often insurmountable obstacles. The first and most obvious problem is the physical availability of equipment. To connect to Starlink, each user needs a specific receiving terminal (the famous "dish" or satellite dish) and a router. Iran is subject to severe international sanctions that have made the legal import and large-scale distribution of such devices almost impossible. Even if terminals were smuggled into the country, their scarcity and high cost would make them accessible only to a minimal portion of the population.

Another crucial obstacle is the risk of detection and repression by the regime. The Iranian government has shown a great capacity in the past to monitor and suppress any activity that threatens its control. The use of a Starlink antenna, which requires an outdoor location and clear sky visibility, makes it relatively easy for authorities to locate. Identifying users could lead to severe reprisals, including fines, detention, or other forms of punishment, discouraging most of the population from taking such risks.

Adding to this is the technical complexity of installation and configuration. Even if a user managed to obtain a Starlink kit, installation and configuration might not be intuitive for everyone, especially in a context where official technical assistance would be absent. Power supply issues, often unstable in some areas, and the need to keep the equipment safe and hidden have further increased the difficulties.

Finally, the legal status of the service in Iran has remained uncertain. Without official authorization from the Iranian government, Starlink's operation in the country is considered illegal. This has not only exposed users to legal risks but has also limited SpaceX's ability to provide essential support, updates, or maintenance for the service, potentially making it unreliable in the long term. In summary, while signal activation has been an important step, the path to widespread and secure Starlink access for the Iranian population is fraught with practical and political challenges.

Elon Musk's soft power and the power to switch off Starlink

Musk's offer of Starlink to Iran is a striking example of the soft power wielded by Elon Musk. Soft power, as defined by Joseph Nye, refers to an actor's ability to influence others through attraction and persuasion, rather than coercion. In Musk's case, his technological influence is immense. His companies, such as SpaceX and Tesla, are at the forefront of technological innovation. This leadership has given him a unique platform and credibility that few other individuals possess.

He has a global reach and strong media presence. Musk is a polarizing but extremely influential figure on social media, particularly on X, which he owns. His statements have reached a global audience almost instantly, amplifying his message and influence. His narrative as a "savior" or "innovator" has contributed to his soft power. Musk has often presented himself as a solver of global problems, whether it's connectivity in conflict areas, energy transition, or space exploration. This narrative has attracted support and sympathy, even when his actions have had complex geopolitical implications.

His soft power can also be a source of concern for governments, a real potential for destabilization. His ability to operate outside traditional diplomatic channels and offer services that can undermine state control has been seen as a direct challenge to national sovereignty.

To demonstrate this immense power, Musk has on several occasions threatened or carried out Starlink service interruptions, transforming a connectivity infrastructure into a geopolitical tool. A notable example occurred during the war in Ukraine. Initially, Starlink proved crucial for Ukrainian military and civilian communications, especially in areas where terrestrial infrastructure had been destroyed. However, in 2022, Musk expressed concerns about the use of Starlink for offensive attacks against Russia and stated that the service would not be activated in annexed or disputed areas, sparking debates about his decision-making authority in an international conflict. There have also been times when SpaceX had to face significant costs for maintaining the service in Ukraine, leading Musk to suggest the possibility of suspending funding, only to later backtrack.

A concrete and problematic case emerged in November 2022, when CNN reported that 1,300 Starlink terminals were no longer operational to provide communications to Ukrainian armed forces due to lack of funding. In October 2022, Kyiv had asked London to pay a monthly amount of $3.25 million to keep the services active. However, a British official stated that Great Britain was only paying for Starlink terminals that had significant tactical importance on the battlefield. This episode highlighted the vulnerability of states dependent on a private service controlled by a single individual, who can directly influence the operational capabilities of an army at war depending on his billing policies or convictions.

Another significant case emerged in late October 2023, when Israel expressed its intention to sever all ties with SpaceX's Starlink project, due to Elon Musk's decision to provide satellite internet access to the Gaza Strip. Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Kari stated that the country would use all available means to deter the use of Starlink satellite communications by the Hamas group. On October 28, 2023, Musk announced that Starlink would provide satellite communication services to international organizations assisting residents of the Gaza Strip. At that time, blackouts in the region had exacerbated an already desperate situation, making relief operations difficult. Communications and internet services in the Gaza Strip were completely paralyzed due to bombardments, which had destroyed cellular towers and terrestrial data lines. In response, Musk promised to arrange satellite communications for "internationally recognized organizations," sparking Israel's fury. In turn, the SpaceX founder stressed that if Starlink provides communications for the Gaza Strip, it will do so solely for humanitarian reasons. According to Musk, by late October 2023, no Starlink terminal had attempted to connect from the region. In such a case, the company would take all necessary measures.

A more direct and technical example of Musk's control occurred in February 2023, when SpaceX limited the Ukrainian army's access to Starlink satellite communications for drone control. SpaceX stated that it did not want its technology to be used for offensive purposes. This action clearly showed the company's ability to impose restrictions on the military use of its technology, even on an ally. These episodes have unequivocally demonstrated Musk's power to decide who has access or not to critical communication infrastructure in conflict zones, an influence that goes far beyond mere commercial control.

Musk's offer of Starlink to Iran, as well as his previous considerations on the use of Starlink in Ukraine or other disaster-stricken regions, has shown how Musk views his technologies not only as commercial products but also as tools with geopolitical and humanitarian impact, with the unique ability to switch on or off a "beam" of digital freedom.

The White House and SpaceX contracts: a reflection of tensions with Trump

News that the White House has ordered the Pentagon and NASA to carefully review SpaceX government contracts, following an alleged "break" between Trump and Elon Musk earlier this month, has revealed growing tension between the US administration and the entrepreneur. Although the source indicated a strained relationship with President Donald Trump, it's more likely that this investigation reflects a broader concern of the Trump administration regarding Musk's influence and autonomy, especially in critical sectors such as space and defense.

The aim of the investigation is to prepare government agencies for possible "retaliation" against Elon Musk and his companies. This terminology has suggested that the Trump administration might be ready to use government contracts as leverage to influence Musk's behavior or to mitigate perceived risks.

The underlying motivations for these tensions are not always explicit, but could include Musk's decisions regarding Starlink, such as his policies on Starlink's use in Ukraine, his interactions with foreign governments, or his statements on geopolitical issues. His political influence and rhetoric can also be a factor. Musk's political positions, often openly expressed on X, and his interactions with controversial political figures can be seen as problematic by the incumbent administration. Government dependence is another concern. The increasing reliance of the US government on SpaceX for space launches, resupply missions to the International Space Station, and future lunar programs (like Artemis) could make the administration nervous about a single individual's control over such critical infrastructure. Finally, national security concerns are relevant. The nature of SpaceX's services, which often involve sensitive technologies and critical data, could raise national security concerns if the relationship with the founder becomes unpredictable.

This investigation has been a strong signal. The Trump administration is aware of Musk's power and seeks to ensure it has options should his actions or priorities diverge from national interests. It could lead to renegotiation of contracts, including stricter clauses or renegotiating existing ones to ensure greater oversight. There could also be diversification of suppliers, an effort to reduce over-reliance on SpaceX, by encouraging or funding other companies in the aerospace sector. Finally, increased scrutiny means that all future SpaceX proposals or requests could be subjected to a more rigorous examination.

Iran and internet disruptions

During periods of tension or in response to internal protests, such as those sparked by Mahsa Amini's death, Iran has repeatedly and systematically interrupted or limited internet access nationwide or in specific regions. These disruptions are a common means used by the regime to control the narrative, preventing the spread of unfiltered or critical information about the conflict or government actions. They also serve to hinder protest coordination, limiting demonstrators' ability to organize and communicate. Finally, they are justified for security reasons, limiting the ability of external or internal actors to use the internet for malicious purposes, although this is often a justification for censorship.

In the past, Iran has used sophisticated methods for disruptions, ranging from blocking specific social media and messaging apps (such as Telegram, X, Instagram, WhatsApp) to drastically reducing bandwidth or completely blocking access to the global network, outright "shutdowns." These "shutdowns" have been documented by human rights organizations and internet observers like NetBlocks.

Therefore, internet disruptions have been a frequent tactic of the Iranian government in response to internal crises and geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

Elon Musk's Starlink offer to Iran is much more than a mere technological proposal. It is a convergence point for discussions on soft power, freedom of information, geopolitical dynamics, and the increasingly complex relationship between major technology figures and governments. The White House investigation into SpaceX contracts highlights Washington's vigilance over Musk's growing influence, while Iran's constant internet disruptions during times of crisis underscore the critical importance of independent network access. The future of connectivity in Iran, and more generally the role of technology giants in global crises, remains fertile ground for further developments and analysis.

About Extrema Ratio

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