Subcritical in Iraq, enriched in Iran: The nuclear dilemma in the Middle East
- Gabriele Iuvinale
- 2 giorni fa
- Tempo di lettura: 5 min
Recent days have put a spotlight on the complex nuclear dynamics in the Middle East. While Iraq announces a historic step towards peaceful nuclear energy, attention remains high on Iran's nuclear program and its global implications.
Iraq and the Chinese Subcritical Nuclear Reactor: A Peaceful Future?
Significant news comes from Iraq's Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, which intends to sign a strategic agreement with China for the construction of the country's first subcritical nuclear reactor.
What is a subcritical nuclear reactor? Unlike traditional nuclear reactors (which operate in a "critical" state, meaning with a self-sustaining nuclear fission chain reaction), a subcritical nuclear reactor (or Energy Amplifier) cannot sustain a chain reaction autonomously. In these reactors, nuclear fission is initiated and maintained by an external neutron source, typically a particle accelerator that bombards a target (spallation) to produce neutrons.
The key characteristic is that the neutron multiplication factor (k) is always less than 1 (k<1). This means that for each generation of fissions, fewer neutrons are produced than are lost or absorbed. Consequently, if the external neutron source is turned off, the reaction ceases immediately, making the system inherently safer than conventional reactors, eliminating the risk of uncontrolled excursions or severe accidents like meltdowns. They are often studied for the transmutation of long-lived nuclear waste and for safer energy production.
This Iraqi project, which will focus on training and developing skills in nuclear physics and peaceful radiation technologies, represents a potential step forward for Iraq in terms of energy and technological development. The announcement of the groundbreaking within a month and the preference for collaboration with China underscore Iraq's desire to diversify its partners and invest in its scientific future. Also noteworthy is the confirmation of the decontamination of key sites like Al-Tuwaitha, a sign of commitment to safety and environmental remediation.
China's Nuclear Ascent in the Middle East
The nuclear landscape in the Middle East is continuously evolving, and China is emerging as an increasingly central player in this dynamic. Iraq's announcement of its intention to build its first subcritical nuclear reactor with Chinese support, aimed at training and developing peaceful technologies, marks a significant step towards energy and technological diversification in the region. This isn't an isolated case: Saudi Arabia is also looking to Beijing for the construction of future nuclear power plants, in an effort to move away from hydrocarbon dependence, while the United Arab Emirates are exploring partnerships with China for the development of advanced nuclear technologies, including high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. This growing Chinese footprint in the Middle Eastern nuclear sector reflects not only Beijing's strategy of technological and economic expansion but also these countries' desire to explore new partnerships outside traditional Western alliances, reshaping geopolitical balances in one of the world's most strategic and volatile areas.
Iran's Nuclear Program: Concerns and Difficult Negotiations
Concurrently, Iran's nuclear program continues to generate strong international concerns. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently expressed "serious concerns" about the further intensification of highly enriched uranium production by Iran.
Risks of Iran's Nuclear Program
The escalation of Iran's enrichment activities raises significant fears for several reasons:
Nuclear Proliferation: Iran is enriching uranium to levels that have no justification in a civilian program, moving ever closer to the threshold required for producing a nuclear weapon (90% purity). Currently, Iran possesses over 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium, an amount that, if further refined, could be sufficient for several nuclear bombs. This puts the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) at risk.
Regional Instability: A nuclear-armed Iran would drastically alter the balance of power in an already volatile region. Israel considers such an event an existential threat and has not ruled out preventive military action. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Turkey might be prompted to pursue their own nuclear programs, triggering a dangerous arms race.
Lack of Transparency: The IAEA has repeatedly flagged Iran's poor cooperation, which has limited inspector access and failed to provide satisfactory answers regarding past and present nuclear activities at undeclared sites. This opacity makes it difficult to verify the exclusively peaceful nature of the program.
Threat to Negotiations: Iran's continuous violations of the limits imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), from which the United States withdrew in 2018, make negotiations for a new agreement extremely complex. Despite recent attempts to resume dialogue with a formal US proposal, profound differences remain, particularly regarding Iran's demands for full sanctions relief and its insistence on continuing enrichment.
Collaborations Between Iran and China on Nuclear Issues
Collaborations between Iran and China in the nuclear sector have been complex and have evolved over time, influenced by geopolitical dynamics and international agreements:
Past Agreements (1990s): China played a role in Iran's nuclear program in the early 1990s, with agreements for reactor construction that were later terminated due to international pressure.
The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) of 2015: China was one of the signatories of the nuclear deal and provided technical assistance to Iran for the redesign and modernization of the Arak heavy water reactor, converting it from a facility that could produce plutonium to one with exclusively civilian purposes, as stipulated by the JCPOA.
Iran-China Strategic Partnership (25-Year Cooperation Agreement): In March 2021, Iran and China signed a broad 25-year strategic cooperation agreement covering numerous sectors, including economic, military, and indirectly, strategic areas with potential implications for nuclear matters.
Trilateral Forums and Diplomatic Support: China, along with Russia, regularly participates in trilateral meetings with Iran to discuss Iran's nuclear program and sanctions. Beijing has consistently advocated for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and criticized US-imposed sanctions, often acting as a mediator and a voice for dialogue in international contexts like the IAEA and the UN Security Council.
In summary, China has played a limited role in technical support in the past and a significant role as a mediator and party to the JCPOA. Today, broader collaborations fall within the framework of the 25-year strategic partnership, which includes a wide range of sectors, but specific cooperation on civil nuclear matters is closely monitored and limited by international sanctions and proliferation concerns.
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