The Architecture of the Future World Order: The Geopolitical Science of the Moscow-Beijing-Washington Triangle

The Geoeconomic Paradox: Interdependence Fueling Conflict

How did we arrive at this point of intense competition between the United States and China, with Russia playing a crucial role as a third party? What are the geoeconomic and historical roots that have led to the twilight of the unipolar era? To answer these questions, we turn to the profound and rigorous study from 2023 by the late Russian political scientist Andrei Sergeevich Davydov, titled "The Moscow-Beijing-Washington' Triangle and the Multivariety of the Coming World Order." The work, published in the year of his passing, argues that the struggle for a new world order is the defining factor of our time.

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The Crisis of American Unipolar Hegemony and its Geoeconomic Fragilities

Davydov begins his analysis by challenging the Western narrative that the collapse of the USSR marked the "end of history" and the beginning of a unipolar era. On the contrary, he argues that the West squandered the opportunity to build a collective security architecture, opting instead for aggressive expansion. The author defines the U.S. attitude as being based on a "superiority complex" and a "messianic mission" to impose democracy and neoliberalism globally.

The political scientist emphasizes how this ambition has been undermined by a structural economic decline. The U.S. share of global production plummeted from 50% in 1945 to 18% in 2010. This erosion of economic power, according to Davydov, has forced Washington to increasingly rely on its military superiority to maintain influence, creating a disproportion between its military leadership and its economic capacity. In this regard, Davydov cites the ambitions of reorganizing American foreign policy, highlighting how even pre-election statements by figures like Donald Trump have suggested the need to restructure the geopolitical triangle. The underlying idea is that, in the face of a potential conflict with both rivals, the U.S. must be prepared to ease pressure from at least one side.

The Geopolitical Trajectory of Russia and China

• The Return of Russia: From Servitude to Autonomy

Davydov's analysis is particularly critical of post-Soviet Russian policy. He defines the Gorbachev period as an era of "blind idealism" and the Yeltsin period as one of "servility and submissiveness," which allowed the West to trample on Russian interests without fear. The turning point is identified in Vladimir Putin's speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, an event that marked Russia's return to an independent foreign policy. The author interprets the military operation in Ukraine not only as a regional action but as a direct challenge to the American unipolar order. Despite its military strength and crucial role in global strategic relations, Davydov does not hide Russia's geoeconomic weakness, with its GDP representing only 2% of the global total, a figure that puts it at a disadvantage compared to the United States and China.

• The Strategic Rise of China

China is the actor that has most redefined the global landscape. Davydov describes its success as the result of a long-term strategic approach, rooted in the ancient Chinese tactic of "accumulating strength, waiting for the right moment for revenge, and punishing those who have humiliated you." This approach has allowed China to become the world's second-largest economy. The author explains how the country built its economic power by becoming the "factory of the world" and the "global assembly workshop." However, Davydov points out a crucial weakness: its progress was achieved with a foreign technological base. This dependence has led the U.S. to denounce intellectual property theft, a crime that, according to American sources cited in the study, costs the U.S. about $500 billion annually.

Geoeconomic Dynamics and the Risks of the Triangle

The article highlights the intricate web of interdependencies and rivalries within the geopolitical triangle. The economic interdependence between the U.S. and China is profound, with a trade volume of about $660 billion. Despite this connection, rivalry has become the "new normal," leading to a "trade war" and the risk of a global misalignment of supply chains. Davydov also mentions the risk of a "financial war," arguing that China could respond to economic escalation by launching an attack on the dollar. The author cites economists who describe the U.S. currency as "weakly supported" and highlights the possibility that Beijing could sell off its large holdings of U.S. debt securities, in which investments have already decreased by $242 billion in previous years.

The strategic partnership between Russia and China, though not a formal military alliance, is seen as a key factor in eroding U.S. global leadership. The author, however, highlights the internal tensions and differences within this partnership. The priorities of the two countries do not always align: Russia focuses on military security, while China is more interested in economic cooperation. Davydov also recalls the thinking of Henry Kissinger, who argued that the U.S. should strengthen Russia, the "weaker of the two rivals," to then defeat the stronger one, China. A crucial prediction is that, in the absence of a formal alliance, the two countries could act solely based on their own interests, potentially even leading to conflict.

Conclusions: Toward a Clash of Civilizations

Davydov concludes that global competition is no longer an ideological or military conflict but a civil, economic, and geopolitical rivalry. The emerging "new bipolarity," therefore, is a confrontation between two different civilizational systems. The author points out that both China and the United States possess a "superiority complex" that could exacerbate conflicts. The Chinese consider themselves heirs to a millennia-old civilization, while Americans see themselves as the youngest and most powerful nation.

The future, according to Davydov, will not be defined by sympathies or antipathies, but by objective economic and geopolitical factors. The struggle for the future world order has begun, and the coming years in the triangle will certainly be "hot."