The Chinese Shadow Fleet: The Black Blood Feeding the Anti-Western Axis
- Gabriele Iuvinale
- 1 giorno fa
- Tempo di lettura: 9 min
A shadow stretches across global geopolitical dynamics, woven by the ambitions of authoritarian powers that openly challenge the international order. At the heart of this complex plot stands China, whose insatiable thirst for energy resources not only fuels its growth but also sustains sanctioned regimes, providing them with vital means to pursue destabilizing agendas. What emerges is Beijing's crucial role in facilitating a "Dark Fleet" of oil tankers, an illicit mechanism that translates into direct and systematic financing of rogue states, amplifying conflicts and rewriting global rules according to an authoritarian logic.
A detailed analysis conducted by C4ADS (a non-profit organization) in its study "Oil and Water" reveals the complex and dangerous network behind the global "Dark Fleet," a fleet of oil tankers smuggling oil from sanctioned states. The report highlights Beijing's central, cynical, and deliberate role in this sprawling operation, demonstrating how China's insatiable and strategic demand for energy actively—and with catastrophic consequences—funds Russia's military ambitions and Iran's nuclear program. China is not a passive actor or merely a "leader"; it is the strategic director of a coalition of states whose stated goal is to destabilize the global order, weaken the American superpower, pursue dominance in global affairs including through illicit means, and rewrite the international order with an authoritarian logic.
The "Protean Fleet": The Chinese Arm of the Dark Fleet in the Global Anti-US Axis
At the core of this investigation is the "Protean Fleet," a sub-fleet of over 50 supertankers which, according to estimates, accounts for up to 10% of the global "Dark Fleet". This network, with its presumed base of operations in the People's Republic of China (PRC), has managed to circumvent international sanctions with a flexibility that points to meticulous and long-term planning. C4ADS analysts identified a complex ownership structure, comprising at least 117 shell companies, 74 individuals, and 56 vessels, all integral to the Protean Fleet.
It is particularly significant that the likely beneficial owners of the Protean Fleet include elements of a PRC-based network previously sanctioned by OFAC in 2019 for smuggling Iranian oil. This suggests not mere continuity, but a calculated and targeted resurgence of illicit operations, where old actors re-emerge under new guises, indicating a pervasive and determined strategy of sanctions evasion, with Beijing at the helm.
The Challenge for US Intelligence: Beijing's Complicity in the "Ghost Fleet"
While the C4ADS report reveals unprecedented details about the beneficial ownership of this specific network, the existence of clandestine Chinese fleets and their obfuscation tactics are not new to US intelligence. China has for years developed significant capabilities in electronic warfare and disinformation, including technology that can make a single warship appear as an entire "ghost fleet" on enemy radars. These techniques, though applied here for illicit commercial purposes, demonstrate the dangerous sophistication of Chinese capabilities in masking their activities, making it extremely difficult for intelligence agencies to track and counter such multifaceted threats. Chinese intelligence activity abroad is extensive and aims to acquire commercial, technological, and military secrets. Therefore, the existence of such a well-organized and covert fleet, dedicated to oil smuggling, is not a mere oversight but a direct result of China's strategy of denial and deception, representing a persistent and high-priority challenge for US intelligence monitoring and analysis capabilities.
Destinations and Volumes: The PRC as the Primary Hub for Conflict Oil
Since July 2019, Protean Fleet vessels have transported massive volumes of crude oil from sanctioned jurisdictions. The predominant destination has been the PRC, which received at least 343,279,857 barrels. The origins of this oil are clearly delineated: 43.48% from Russia, 42.34% from Iran, and 14.19% from Venezuela. India, while a secondary destination, also received a substantial volume of 61,547,303 barrels.
These data highlight not only China's energy dependence on unconventional sources, but its role as an opportunistic and primary enabler for sanctioned regimes. In 2023, the PRC purchased 90% of Iranian crude (a significant increase from 25% in 2017), and 68% of oil exported by Venezuela. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China continued to be the main buyer of Russian crude, absorbing 45% of exports between December 2022 and December 2023. This energy partnership is a fundamental and overtly hostile pillar of the Moscow-Beijing-Tehran axis.
Illicit Financing and the Global Destabilization Strategy of the Anti-US Axis
The revenues generated from these oil sales are vital for the economies of sanctioned states, which use them to fund activities that threaten regional peace and security. China's support through the purchase of oil from these states directly translates into indirect financing for them, strengthening regimes considered rogue, such as Putin's Russia, Iran, and Nicolás Maduro's Venezuela. China, in this context, serves as a crucial financial and logistical linchpin for the entire anti-Western axis.
Russia: Russian state oil and gas revenues reached US$120.5 billion in 2024, constituting 30% of total state revenue. This flow of money directly fuels Moscow's war machine. The Protean Fleet adapted to transport Russian crude following Western sanctions, actively supporting its ally in conflict.
Iran: Iran's dependence is roughly equivalent, expected to account for US$500.56 billion or 35.1% of the state's budget in 2025. Much of these revenues contribute to the budgets of the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Venezuela: Under Nicolás Maduro's presidency, Venezuela has been subject to increasing US sanctions since 2017 due to reported repression and corruption. Sanctions targeted Venezuela's oil sector, yet China has continued to be a key buyer, providing Maduro's regime with an economic lifeline and helping to sustain it. Beijing and Caracas also maintain close diplomatic and military ties, with China providing billions in loans in exchange for oil and military equipment.
Sophisticated Evasion Techniques and Loopholes Exploited by Beijing
The Protean Fleet does not merely sail; it orchestrates a sophisticated ballet of sanctions evasion. Among the most common tactics are "dark voyages" (or AIS gaps), ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in busy waters like the Strait of Malacca (which is within Malaysia's exclusive economic zone, where jurisdiction is limited), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) manipulation, and complex vessel identity-swapping techniques known as "AIS handshakes". A striking example is the MONOCEROS (now JAYA), which coordinated with other vessels to hide sanctioned oil shipments and showed signs of repeated AIS manipulation.
These operations are enabled by significant loopholes in global maritime, financial, and corporate infrastructures, which China exploits with determination and utter disregard for international norms. The study reveals the use of:
Secrecy Jurisdictions: The Marshall Islands and the Cayman Islands, which do not offer public corporate registries, are used to create shell companies, concealing the network's true owners. Hong Kong, with its ease of company formation, is also exploited. This ecosystem allows for the creation of layers of shell companies for each vessel and for the three BVI companies that issued the mortgages.
Opaque Financing: The fleet secured over US$750 million worth of mortgages from three British Virgin Islands (BVI)-incorporated companies, directed by three Swiss nationals. These BVI companies have no online presence and are registered to the same post office box. The fact that some later mortgages (after 2021) include contract language allowing debt fulfillment in EU euros or UAE dirhams suggests a growing awareness of the risks associated with US dollar-denominated debts, but also a continued search for escape routes and an attempt to elude US surveillance.
Legal Services and Notaries: The network exploits Swiss law, which historically has enabled lawyers to serve as non-financial intermediaries not subject to anti-money laundering oversight requirements. Mortgage documents often used the same notaries and legal service providers based in Zug (Switzerland), Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Panama.
Flag Registries: The Panamanian flag registry, the world's largest by ship count, has been used by almost all Protean Fleet vessels (52 out of 56) to provide a veneer of legitimacy.
The Multidimensional Global Conflict: The Aggressive Plot of Moscow-Beijing-Tehran
In the global conflict involving the Moscow-Beijing-Tehran axis, the American superpower is forced to operate on multiple fronts simultaneously ("to walk and chew gum"). China's indirect financing of these regimes through the purchase of sanctioned oil is part of a broader, overtly hostile strategy to undermine US influence globally, while simultaneously pursuing dominance in global affairs and rewriting the international order according to an authoritarian logic. Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon have become another front in a global confrontation that began in Ukraine in February 2022.
Since Moscow and Beijing proclaimed their "unlimited friendship" before Russia's full-scale assault on Ukraine, the two Eurasian powers have been actively reshaping the global landscape to exert maximum pressure on the United States and its allies. Beijing's support for these countries is also evident at the UN, where China and Russia frequently oppose US-sponsored resolutions, protecting sanctioned regimes and blocking concerted international action. Iran orchestrated the current escalation in the Middle East to derail Israeli-Saudi rapprochement. Russia and China openly support this escalation; US intelligence sources report that the Wagner PMC has trained Hamas in logistics and deployed Russian SA-22 anti-aircraft systems. This is a disaster for the Middle East, Europe, and the world. This crisis presents Washington with a critical opportunity to send an unequivocal message to Moscow and Beijing: back down—or lose Iran.
The United States now faces a global coalition composed of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, which seeks to capitalize on the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack, which resulted in 1,400 deaths, torture, and kidnapping, including over thirty Americans and more than 200 taken captive in Gaza. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has trained, equipped, and funded Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, reportedly coordinating the attack in a series of meetings in Beirut. Since the 1980s, Tehran has also established, trained, and equipped Hezbollah, its wholly-owned subsidiary in Lebanon. Iran's role as a drone supplier for Russia and an oil supplier for China is crucial, as is its twenty-five-year, $400 billion investment agreement with Beijing and its aspiration to join BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in exchange for Iranian oil.
Iran is the primary purveyor of instability in the Middle East, from the Red Sea—where its Houthi proxies have launched missiles—to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, where it has weaponized Shiite militias to dominate Sunnis. The United States remains the "Great Satan" to Iran's theocratic dictatorship, while Israel is the "Little Satan" destined for destruction.
Russia benefits from the chaos aimed at destabilizing the pro-American architecture of the Middle East, which ensures the steady flow of oil to the world—over 30% of oil shipments from the Persian Gulf pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If the Strait were mined, or Iran fired upon oil tankers, as it has before, oil prices would skyrocket, triggering a new spiral of inflation and potentially contributing to Joe Biden's defeat in the 2024 presidential election. Putin believes that by filling his coffers, he can help Donald Trump get elected, and the sentiment is mutual. As the late Russian political guru Gleb Pavlovsky stated, Putin's political system always raises the stakes. Russia has provided international cover to Hamas since the Islamic movement won US-sponsored elections in 2006. Putin was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Hamas and host its leader, Khaled Mashal, in Moscow, despite Russia's purported anti-terrorism stance in the Caucasus and Afghanistan.
Russia has also used Iran as a battering ram against America for decades, providing missile technology to the mullahs in the 1990s, training their nuclear engineers, and building the first stage of the Bushehr nuclear reactor in 2013, with plans to complete Phase 2 next year and Phase 3 in 2026. Moscow is now purchasing thousands of Shahed and Muhajar-6 drones from Iran for use in Ukraine in exchange for military technology transfers to Tehran. With UN sanctions on missile technology sales to Iran expiring, Russia has stated it will not extend them, meaning more powerful and longer-range missiles and warheads, potentially for future Iranian nuclear weapons. This is a potential disaster for the Middle East, Europe, and the world.
Russia and China also actively coordinate their policies in the Middle East. Simultaneously, President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Middle East envoy Zhang Jun have accused the United States of "failed leadership" in the Middle East and support for Israel. Moreover, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that Israel "has exceeded its right to self-defense," a hypocritical and outrageous statement from a country openly planning an invasion of Taiwan and detaining millions of Uyghurs.
China, with a military base in Djibouti and recent naval deployments in the Persian Gulf, mediated a historic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of its primary oil suppliers, capitalizing on the perception of diminished US support. However, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) lacks the background and knowledge for sophisticated Middle East policy or credible power projection thousands of miles from Chinese shores.
After the ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan, US policymakers hoped to forget the Middle East and focus on peer competitors: Russia and China. But the Middle East possesses the gravitational pull of a black hole: it draws in great powers, making global conflict management an omnipresent challenge.
Limitations of Current Sanctions and Urgent Recommendations
Despite 43 of the Protean Fleet's 56 vessels already being sanctioned by OFAC, the network remains largely operational. This highlights a "whack-a-mole" game where sanctioned assets are quickly replaced. To effectively slow the flow of illicit crude and, consequently, undermine the anti-American axis, authorities must adopt a more systematic approach, focusing on the networks and financiers behind these vessels, rather than just individual ships.
C4ADS has put forth several urgent recommendations for key global stakeholders:
U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Department of State, Federal Bureau of Investigation: Investigate financial flows of this network (US dollar transactions within US jurisdiction).
IMO, S&P Global: Identify vessels engaging in C4ADS' risk criteria and integrate those criteria into compliance screening. Facilitate the exchange of up-to-date information between stakeholders across jurisdictions.
Flag Registries, Classification Societies, Insurers, Port State Control Officers, and other maritime stakeholders: De-flag, deny port entry, and revoke insurance and classification status for Protean Fleet vessels. Invest in voyage analysis capabilities to improve the detection of illicit activity. Maintain open and comprehensive access to relevant data.
Regulators and Financial Intelligence Units: Employ an escalating sanctions strategy against key dark fleet enablers, including repair, bunkering, tug services, and oil refineries.
Chinese and Indian Authorities: Open law enforcement investigations into the Protean Network's companies and vessels, which are breaking both international maritime law and domestic maritime safety and environmental laws. Appeal to customs administrations, oil buyers, ports, and refineries to reject oil cargoes imported from vessels with a history of noncompliance with environmental and safety standards.
Switzerland, Panama, and Other Countries with Heightened Exposure to Sanctions Evasion Activity: Ensure local financial services and maritime industries are not being co-opted by the sanctions-breaking ecosystem.
In conclusion, the "Oil and Water" study is not merely a report on sanctions evasion, but a stern warning about China's fundamental and aggressive role in supporting a global axis that seeks to undermine American influence and redefine the world order through instability and the financing of hostile regimes. The international community cannot afford to ignore these direct links between Beijing's energy procurement and emerging global threats.
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