The geopolitics of semiconductors: Chinese analysis reveals Beijing's next moves between collaboration and security risks

A recent study from the prestigious Chinese Academy of Sciences offers a rare look into China’s strategy for strengthening its semiconductor industry. The research, published in the Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, analyzes in detail how global leaders in technology—in the Netherlands, Belgium, and the United States—are developing talent in this crucial sector. The report is a clear signal that Beijing isn't just observing its rivals; it’s studying their methods to close its own technology gap and boost the competitiveness of the Chinese semiconductor industry.

The semiconductor industry is the foundation of modern technology, powering everything from smartphones and AI to advanced military systems. The Chinese study confirms that China's traditional, university-centric approach to talent development is no longer sufficient to meet the demands of such a dynamic and rapidly evolving sector. Because of this, the report outlines a plan to adopt a new collaborative model based on a strong partnership between the government, universities, research institutions, and private companies.

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Three Collaborative Models Analyzed

To understand how to move forward, the Chinese study focuses on three successful international models:

• ASML (Netherlands): This model is described as a "one-to-one" partnership, where a single leading company works closely with a local university. The study highlights the deep cooperation between ASML and the Eindhoven University of Technology. ASML provides significant funding, technical expertise, and even equipment to the university. The two partners plan to jointly train 40 PhD students a year and build a new, state-of-the-art cleanroom on campus. This close alignment ensures that university research and talent training directly meet the company's needs.

• IMEC (Belgium): The IMEC model is a "one-to-many" approach, led by a central research institution. The Interuniversity Microelectronics Centre (IMEC) acts as an innovation hub, bringing together a vast network of over 600 industry partners and numerous universities. The Belgian government requires IMEC to use at least 10% of its funding for collaborations with five regional universities. Although it cannot grant degrees, IMEC provides crucial research infrastructure and projects for about 100 PhD students annually.

• NSTC (United States): This is a "many-to-many" model, a large-scale, public-private consortium driven by a national strategy. The National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC) was founded with a $5 billion investment from the U.S. government. The NSTC brings together over 240 members, including companies, universities, and government agencies, to coordinate efforts and accelerate innovation and workforce development. The study notes how the NSTC uses grant programs to fund universities like UCLA and the Rochester Institute of Technology to create training programs aligned with industry needs.

The Dual-Use Challenge: Opportunities and Risks

While the study frames these models as blueprints for talent development, it also highlights the "dual-use" nature of semiconductors, which are essential for both commercial products and military applications. China recognizes that its delay in this sector, particularly in producing high-end chips, represents a strategic vulnerability. The deep collaborations described in the study could, unintentionally, provide a path for Chinese entities to acquire sensitive information.

Partnerships between companies and universities are crucial for innovation but can also expose the parties to significant risks. The integration of students and researchers into joint projects and shared access to state-of-the-art facilities like cleanrooms create access points that could be exploited to acquire trade secrets and intellectual property. The places mentioned in the study, such as the new cleanroom at Eindhoven University and IMEC's vast network, contain invaluable knowledge. Their open, collaborative nature, while fundamental for innovation, could be seen as a vulnerability.

Proactive Measures and Risk Mitigation

For nations with advanced semiconductor industries, it's essential to adopt proactive measures to safeguard their technological sovereignty and economic security.

• Human Espionage: Promoting collaborations and the participation of researchers and students in joint programs can offer opportunities to acquire knowledge. The presence of foreign professionals in research or managerial positions could serve, from an intelligence perspective, as a means to collect data on processes, methodologies, and R&D strategies.

• Academic Infiltration: Individuals or entities might seek to insert themselves into collaboration programs, universities, or consortia to acquire internal knowledge, processes, and methodologies that are not publicly available.

• Targeted Talent Acquisition: Hiring qualified researchers and specialists from these ecosystems is an effective way to transfer knowledge and capabilities, bypassing the need to develop them internally.

This scenario underscores the importance for countries with advanced semiconductor industries to strengthen their countermeasures, not only to protect their digital assets but also to safeguard their intellectual property and talent from more complex and subtle forms of espionage.