The New Imperial Mandate: China's Inexorable Drive to Global Domination - Extrema Ratio's analysis of the fifteenth five-year plan
- Gabriele Iuvinale
- 18 minuti fa
- Tempo di lettura: 11 min
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), held in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025, approved the guidelines for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030).This document does not represent a rupture, but the continuity and strategic intensification of policies initiated with the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and the long-term vision of Xi Jinping. China is preparing for a "long twilight struggle" against the West, not with the conventional weapons of the Cold War, but through a "liminal" strategy based on a triad of forces: economic power, control of global value chains, and technological and productive self-sufficiency (autarky). Beijing has understood that its strength lies in being an industrial giant, financially sound, and skillfully prepared for "non-military warfare" since Xi rose to power.
US sanctions, far from containing it, have accelerated its path towards self-sufficiency and the establishment of a "new network of strategic alliances" (e.g., BRI and China-Russia). An example of this strengthening is the Northern Sea Route (NSR), developed through a Russian-Chinese joint venture in 2025, which guarantees Russia a vital strategic communication route, and Beijing a key logistical alternative, solidifying a geopolitical and commercial axis that defies Western isolation.
The Fifteenth Five-Year Plan further consolidates the pillars of "dual circulation" (strengthening the domestic market and external expansion) and the principle of "coordinated development and security", elevating China's ambition to an unprecedented level of global competition, with financial safeguard measures (such as the e-CNY and CIPS) to protect itself from future Western sanctions. The Plenum, chaired by General Secretary Xi Jinping, expressed utmost confidence, calling on the Party and the nation to "maintain strategic resolve" and "dare to struggle and be good at struggling".
The Fourteenth Plan: The Foundation of Self-Sufficiency (2021-2025)
The Fifteenth Plan (2026-2030) cannot be understood without analyzing Xi Jinping's strategic philosophy that shaped the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan (FYP). Since his rise to power, Xi has reversed Deng Xiaoping's doctrine of "Hiding our capability and waiting for our time" (韬光养晦 - taoguang yanghui), embracing a more assertive approach, convinced that the "historical phase to substantially promote common prosperity" and Chinese modernization had arrived.
Xi's Vision and the Response to Decoupling
The People's Republic of China (PRC), in just over two decades, has achieved rapid economic growth to become the world's second-largest economy, while modernizing its industrial base and moving up the global value chain. Since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China's foreign trade volume has increased nearly 12 times, from $509 billion to $6.16 trillion in 2024. The trade balance surplus reached a record $992.1 billion in 2024, while GDP exceeded $18 trillion. This remarkable growth, however, has often been achieved through aggressive actions, policies, and practices that deviate from global norms and rules.
China's "grand strategy" is based on eliminating strategic dependencies, namely technological and energy "chokepoints". The US containment action (especially under the Trump and Biden administrations) was perceived by Beijing not as an unexpected threat, but as confirmation of the historical necessity to pursue self-sufficiency.
Autarky and Technological Independence: China realized that its true "Achilles' heel" lay in dependence on critical foreign technologies such as semiconductors, advanced software, and precision machinery. The Fourteenth Plan launched colossal programs (such as the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, known as the "Big Fund") to eliminate technological chokepoints imposed by the West. US sanctions targeting Chinese companies, such as restrictions on AI chips, were interpreted as an attempt to "strangle" development and accelerated domestic substitution programs in key sectors like communications, high-end manufacturing (高端制造), and biomedicine (生物医药).
"Common Prosperity" as a Consolidation Tool: The rhetoric on "Common Prosperity" (共同富裕 - gongtong fuyu) is not just a social policy to reduce income disparities, but a mechanism to consolidate the power of the CPC, eliminate alternative power centers (such as private tech giants), and redirect wealth towards strategic sectors. Stabilizing society and the domestic market is the precondition for external power projection.
Geopolitical Preparation: China's preparation for this "struggle" has been methodical and long-term. It has relied on accumulating massive foreign exchange reserves, strategic investments in global infrastructure (BRI), and transforming the People's Liberation Army (PLA) into a high-tech fighting force. The goal of making China a modern, great world power by 2049, the centenary of the founding of the PRC, has been set for some time.
The Fifteenth Five-Year Plan (2026-2030): Continuity and Strategic Acceleration
The Fourth Plenum of the 20th CPC Central Committee (October 20-23, 2025) defined the Fifteenth Plan as the "crucial phase for consolidating the foundations and fully deploying socialist modernization", serving as a "linking ring" (承前启后 - chengqian qihou) towards the 2035 milestone. The CPC reiterated the need to "maintain strategic resolve" and "confidence in victory".
Goals and Guiding Principles
Strategic Imperative of the "New Productive Force": The plan elevates the "development of new productive forces" (新质生产力 - xin zhi shengchanli) to an absolute priority. This concept aims for a qualitative transformation of the Chinese growth model, based on cutting-edge technologies (AI, quantum computing, 6G) that can ensure not only an increase in GDP but also the technological supremacy needed to compete with the US and defend against sanctions.
Coordination of Development and Security: The Plenum documents emphasize that the 2026-2030 period will be marked by a context where "strategic opportunities and risks and challenges coexist", with an increase in "uncertain factors". Therefore, the coordination of "development and security" (发展和安全) is the most critical political element, making national security (technological, economic, food, and military) the precondition for growth.
Increase in Per Capita GDP: By 2035, the goal is to achieve a "significant leap" in economic, scientific, defense power, and "international influence". The target of "per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries" is a clear indicator of the intermediate goal.
The Twelve Areas of Major Effort (12 Major Deployment)
The 15th FYP's focus is on reinforcing the areas already prioritized in the Fourteenth Plan:
Building a Modern Industrial System: Maintain the focus on the real economy and strengthen advanced manufacturing, quality, and infrastructure. Promotions are emphasized for "powers" (强国) in manufacturing, quality, aerospace, transport, and IT.
Technological Self-Sufficiency (高水平科技自立自强): The goal is to overcome dependence on critical technologies and establish global standards ("China Standards 2035"), transforming China into a "dominant supplier" of key components and technologies.
Domestic Market and Dual Circulation: Consolidate the "powerful domestic market" by exploiting the "super-scale market advantage" (超大规模市场优势) to absorb production and reduce sensitivity to external demand fluctuations. The removal of "blocking points and bottlenecks" (卡点堵点) hindering the construction of a unified national market will be promoted.
High-Level Opening Up (高水平对外开放): Expand opening up not in terms of unconditional market access, but as "institutional opening up" aimed at strengthening its geopolitical influence, particularly through the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Food and Rural Security: The principle of "hiding grain in the land and hiding grain in technology" is reaffirmed.
National Unification: The promotion of peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and the goal of "advancing the great cause of the reunification of the motherland" are explicitly included as part of the 15th FYP efforts.
Military and Defense Development: Achieve the goals for the PLA's centenary, accelerating the integration of "mechanization, informatization, and artificial intelligence" and increasing "strategic capability to defend sovereignty, security, and development interests".
Liminal Warfare: Control of Value Chains and Financial Weapons
Beijing has chosen a "non-military warfare" (fēi zhànzhēng jūnshì xíngdòng) that operates below the threshold of open conflict, but is equally destructive to adversaries. China's economic aggression, from market distortions to asymmetrical practices, threatens the global economy.
Control of Economic Chokepoints
China's strength lies in its uncontested control of global supply chains and critical materials.
Dominance in Strategic Raw Materials: China has invested huge funds to overcome scarcity in oil, metallic resources, and rare earths. The focus on resource and energy security is an imperative. Beijing's ability to "control big data technologies" gives it a crucial advantage. China has also stated the need to "strictly strengthen export control policy" (严格落实出口管制政策).
Overcapacity and Aggressive Practices: Part of China's growth has been achieved through aggressive acts, policies, and practices that deviate from global norms and rules. The use of overcapacity and asymmetrical practices are tools for global industrial dominance, especially in critical high-tech sectors. The ultimate goal is for domestic companies to replace foreign companies as designers and manufacturers of key technologies and products, first at home, then abroad.
Acquisition of Technology and IP: The strategy is realized through the acquisition of technology, intellectual property (IP), and know-how through coercive or secret means.
The Financial Fortress Against SWIFT
China, aware of its financial system's vulnerability to dollar hegemony, is implementing safeguard measures to protect itself from future US sanctions related to SWIFT and the Western financial system.
CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System): The Fifteenth Plan calls for aggressive enhancement to transform it into an "encrypted and opaque alternative" to SWIFT. The CPC recognizes the importance of a cross-border payment system that enables "de-dollarization" and RMB settlement. The "global layout and promotion" of CIPS will be pushed, and financial institutions will be encouraged to support this "service to the national strategy".
e-CNY (The State Digital Currency): The digital currency is not just a domestic payment tool but a geopolitical laboratory. It reinforces domestic "digital authoritarianism" and, internationally, offers an alternative vehicle for cross-border payments, such as the mBridge initiative, undermining the dollar's power.
Financial Sector Cleanup: Pressure on "local government debt" and the "real estate market" is necessary to prevent "systemic risk" and alleviate banks, mirroring the strategy used in the 1990s. The effective resolution of this "burden" is seen as the key to the next cycle of "accelerated growth".
The Technological Ecosystem and Digital Authoritarianism
The CPC views technology not only as an economic engine but as a strategic "factor of production" for applying its governance model.
Information Dominance and Cyberspace Sovereignty
Cyber Power and Governance Model: Beijing's goal is to become a "cyber superpower" capable of "shaping its rules and forging its norms". "Cyberspace sovereignty" is a fundamental principle promoted by China in international organizations.
Integrated Digital Infrastructure: The accelerated focus in the Fifteenth Plan on "national informatization" aims to build the "largest and most technologically advanced network infrastructure in the world". This includes constructing an "integrated big data center system" and integrating 5G and 6G with all sectors of the economy to create an "integrated global digital commercial ecosystem".
Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) and Technological Dominance: The strategy of Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) is a set of state-directed programs to instrumentalize all levers of state and commercial power to strengthen the PLA and achieve military dominance. The MCF enables the exfiltration of cutting-edge global technologies and interconnects with initiatives like the BRI, Digital Silk Road, Made in China 2025, and China Standards 2035, projecting economic and technological power.
Security Risks (Smart Cities and IoT): The export of "Smart Cities" and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, sold by giants like Huawei, Hikvision, and Dahua, is part of this global projection. These systems, integrated with the Corporate Social Credit System (CSCS), enable "ubiquitous surveillance" domestically and the acquisition of sensitive data abroad, posing severe risks to the national security of host countries. The National Intelligence Law of 2017 and the Data Security Law (DSL) of 2021 provide a broad legal basis for the government and military intelligence agencies to access and control data, even from foreign companies operating in China.
Global Power Projection and Liminal Warfare
China's increasing assertiveness and will to power have taken on specific characteristics since Xi Jinping's rise, leading Beijing to climb global rankings in multiple areas.
Asymmetrical Globalization and Dominance
Industrial Dominance and Dependencies: China is wealthy, industrialized, controls the most important global supply chains, and creates dependencies in crucial sectors of high-tech and critical materials. Chinese producers dominate the upstream inputs used in manufacturing for many sectors, creating a strategic dependence that is not limited to finished products.
Coercion Levers: Beijing uses a full arsenal: influence operations, co-optation, and economic, political, diplomatic, and military coercion. Control over International Organizations and domestic and foreign media completes the strategy.
Corporate Alignment: Beijing's Party-led political system requires private companies to align their business interests with the CPC's, including its military, repression, influence, and political interference activities. Party cells within companies, including foreign ones, are used as direct control tools.
The Arctic and the Sino-Russian Axis: New Geopolitical Routes
The strategic alliance with Russia is a crucial pillar, no longer just of convenience, but of strategic necessity.
The Northern Sea Route (NSR): The joint venture Northern Sea Route Shipping Line between Russia's Rosatom and China's New New Shipping in 2025 is the clearest example of how Western sanctions have strengthened the axis. The NSR offers Russia a crucial Arctic communication route and Beijing a shorter logistical path to Europe. The volume of cargo traffic along the NSR reached a record of over 3 million tonnes in 2024, with Chinese companies nearly doubling their voyages.
Security and Dual Use: The potential use of "dual-use" (civilian-military) ports and joint Sino-Russian military exercises in the Arctic indicates increasing integration and interoperability between the two militaries. China projects its power overseas using a network of commercial ports and dual-use facilities that provide logistics and intelligence support to the Chinese navy. As early as 2022, Chinese-owned or managed entities held terminals in 96 ports across 53 countries.
Liminal Warfare on the Seas: The PLA has the means and legal instruments to ensure that Chinese civilian vessels and infrastructure can be used for military and security purposes overseas. The MCF provides the PLA with access to foreign ports, enabling it to preposition logistical support for naval deployments as far as the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean, and Atlantic Ocean. The risks of espionage and sabotage are higher where Chinese civilian commercial activities are located near NATO naval bases or critical logistics hubs.
The Total Struggle of "Liminal Warfare"
Chinese operations integrate an incremental struggle, "Liminal Warfare", where the spectrum of competition and confrontation is so wide that the battlefield is everywhere and warfare is total. The control of strategic infrastructure, such as ports, digital networks (like the LOGINK platform), and critical global supply chains, constitutes "trans-military" and "non-military" warfare operations – as described in Unrestricted Warfare. This hybrid approach, integrated with the expanding strategic partnership between China and Russia, represents a growing threat to European and global security.
The Long-Term Vision: Geopolitical Context and Systemic Competition
The Fifteenth Five-Year Plan and Chinese assertiveness must be framed within the CPC's long-term strategic vision, which aims for the rewriting of the international order.
The Path to Global Hegemony
Goal 2049 and the 'Great Cause': China is systematically moving towards the centenary goal (2049) of achieving the "Chinese Dream of the great rejuvenation of the nation". This objective is inherently revisionist, as it implies the affirmation of a "Sino-centric world order" and the pushing back of US military and political influence from the Indo-Pacific.
Taiwan as Inclusive Priority: The will to "promote reunification" through peaceful development is part of the long-standing strategy to resolve historical issues and consolidate national unity. The Taiwan question is consistently included in high-level CPC communications.
The Model of Authoritarian Success: The CPC continues to promote the "advantage of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics", capable of achieving economic results and social stability unimaginable for liberal democracies.
Preparation for "Stormy Seas"
Struggle and Confidence in Victory: The Plenum's language is martial, calling for "maintaining strategic resolve" and "daring to struggle and being good at struggling". This is a clear reference to the need to face "major tests of stormy winds and even surging waves" (风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验) imposed by geopolitical competition.
Invalid Containment: China has shown that containment strategies designed for the Cold War against the USSR are invalid. China is an industrial giant, financially robust (with large reserves), and profoundly integrated (and dominant) in global value chains. The external decoupling efforts have been converted into the internal "self-sufficiency" strategy.
5G Dependency and Cyber Vulnerabilities: China's leadership in foundational technologies like 5G wireless infrastructure and the mandatory collaboration with security agencies pose a clear threat of State espionage and technological transfer, creating unacceptable risks for the national security and strategic interests of other nations.
The analysis of the Fifteenth Plan confirms that China, far from being deterred by global challenges, has internalized the conflict with the West as an inevitable clash of systems and is proceeding with totalitarian determination toward its goal of global dominance.