The Silent Axis: China and Iran Between Military, Intelligence, and Nuclear Cooperation

Introduction: A Bond Reshaping Global Balances

In the complex geopolitical chessboard of the 21st century, the relationship between China and Iran is emerging as an increasingly significant factor, often underestimated but with profound implications for the global balance of power. Far from being a mere economic tie, the partnership between Beijing and Tehran extends to sensitive sectors such as military cooperation, intelligence, and, indirectly, the Iranian nuclear sphere. This bond, strengthened by a common perception of Western hostility and the need to challenge U.S. hegemony, is consolidating into a "silent axis" that redefines dynamics in the Middle East and beyond.

GettyImmages

A Strategic Partnership with Deep Roots

The culmination of this growing understanding was the 25-Year Strategic Cooperation Pact signed in March 2021. While its full details remain confidential, this agreement is much more than a simple economic deal. It outlines a wide range of collaborations, from Chinese investments in Iran's energy and infrastructure sectors to deeper cooperation in military and intelligence matters. Its signing sent a clear message to Washington: China is ready to support Iran, even at the cost of defying U.S. sanctions.

Military Collaboration: From Arms Sales to Joint Exercises

China has historically been a key supplier of armaments to Iran, particularly during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Although direct arms sales have decreased following international sanctions and UN resolutions, reports indicate continued and less transparent assistance in terms of military technology and dual-use components. Recently, news has emerged of Iranian orders for ballistic missile components from China, suggesting a transfer of technology that significantly concerns Western powers.

Beyond supplies, military cooperation also manifests through joint exercises. The two countries' naval forces conducted their first joint drill in 2017, followed by others in 2019 and 2023, often including Russia. These maneuvers, named "Maritime Security Belt," demonstrate Beijing and Tehran's ability to operate jointly in strategic maritime areas, projecting power and coordination. The stated goal is "maritime trade security" and "maritime counter-terrorism," but the implicit message is clear: an alliance capable of projecting influence in regions vital to global trade.

The Intelligence Web: An Intimate and Silent Connection

Perhaps the most revealing and least discussed aspect of the Sino-Iranian relationship is the deep cooperation in the field of intelligence. The synergy between Beijing's and Tehran's intelligence services has been crucial for both countries, with a significant impact on regional security.

A striking example of this collaboration, highlighting the intimacy of the bond, concerns China's support for Iran in dismantling the U.S. intelligence network on Iranian territory. According to U.S. sources, China reportedly offered significant support to Iran in this operation. China's expertise in cyber and surveillance capabilities is said to have provided Iran with the tools and information needed to identify and neutralize CIA operations within its borders. This assistance not only demonstrates extraordinary mutual trust but also a shared willingness to undermine Western influence. China, with its advanced cyber-espionage and data collection capabilities, is believed to have acted as a key facilitator, providing Iran with technological tools and, potentially, raw intelligence to identify and disable American intelligence assets. This cooperation is a clear sign of a relationship that goes far beyond mere economic interest.

The 2021 Strategic Partnership is believed to have further formalized intelligence cooperation. China would benefit from access to Iran's well-established regional networks and its information on geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, an area of growing strategic interest for Beijing in terms of energy and trade. On the other hand, Iran gains a powerful ally with technological resources and cyber-intelligence capabilities that are crucial for its national security and its ability to resist external pressures.

The Uranium Enrichment Knot: China's Indirect Role

When discussing the Iranian nuclear program, China's formal position is to support non-proliferation and adherence to the JCPOA (the 2015 Iran nuclear deal). Beijing has consistently promoted a diplomatic and political solution to the nuclear issue and has opposed any escalation that could destabilize the region.

However, China's support for Iran has significant indirect implications for its uranium enrichment program. China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, despite U.S. sanctions, providing Tehran with a vital source of revenue that allows it to sustain its economy and, consequently, fund its nuclear and military activities. Beijing has also voted against recent IAEA resolutions criticizing Iran for failing to comply with non-proliferation obligations, acting as a kind of diplomatic defender of Iran on the international stage and blocking potential "snapback" sanctions at the UN Security Council.

It's crucial to emphasize that there is no credible evidence of direct Chinese cooperation in Iranian uranium enrichment. Such assistance would be a blatant violation of international non-proliferation norms and would trigger a global crisis. However, Beijing's economic and political support for Iran creates an environment where Tehran can afford to maintain and develop its nuclear program, without facing the economic pressure and isolation that Western powers aim to impose.

Xi Jinping's Statements and the Vision of a New Order

Chinese President Xi Jinping's statements on Iran, while often remaining within the scope of official diplomacy, reflect a clear willingness to strengthen ties and support Iranian sovereignty. At bilateral meetings and international forums, Xi has reiterated China's support for the "safeguarding of Iran's legitimate rights and interests" and has criticized "unilateral actions" that undermine regional stability. Xi has emphasized the importance of "comprehensive strategic cooperation" between China and Iran, highlighting Beijing's desire to work with Tehran to promote "multipolarity" in the international system and resist hegemony. These statements reinforce the narrative of China positioning itself as a reliable partner for countries like Iran that seek to challenge the U.S.-dominated world order.

Conclusions: A Growing Axis

The relationship between China and Iran is a microcosm of current geopolitical tensions, a test bed for Beijing's ability to project its influence and challenge Western hegemony. The "marriage of convenience" between the two nations, based on common strategic interests and mutual hostility towards U.S. policies, is becoming increasingly robust. Military cooperation, intelligence sharing—with China's reported support in dismantling U.S. intelligence networks in Iran serving as clear proof of the intimacy of their bond—and Chinese economic support that indirectly enables Iran's nuclear program, all delineate an axis that will have a growing impact on international stability and security.