The Space Silk Road: China's geo-economic project that conceals military ambitions in orbit

Dual-Use Ecosystems: A Detailed Analysis of How China Unites Universities, Companies, and the PLA to Dominate the Next Space Era

A new and detailed report by the Commercial Space Federation (CSF) titled "Redshift: The Acceleration of China's Commercial and Civil Space Enterprise & The Challenge to America" reveals how China is accelerating its space program to become a global power by 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China (PRC). This effort, which the CSF report defines as "Redshift," combines strategic state planning with booming commercial innovation. Unlike the U.S. space program, which has seen its NASA plans and funding frequently altered, Chinese efforts have benefited from long-term programmatic and funding stability.

According to the intelligence analysis from Extrema Ratio titled "Chinese Space Domain: Beijing's 'Kill Chain' Alert," the competition for space dominance is redefining global security. The rapid growth of China's military, commercial, and dual-use space sectors represents a significant challenge to the United States and its allies.

A Smart Dragon-3 rocket lifted off on Tuesday, September 17, from Shandong Province in eastern China, sending the Geely-05 constellation satellites into their planned orbits. The rocket lifted off at 3:48 a.m. (Beijing time) from the sea near the city of Rizhao. The Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center conducted the offshore launch mission. Credit CASC.

A Hybrid Growth Model: The Commercial and Geo-economic Ascent

China's success is based on a hybrid growth model that merges state planning with a flourishing commercial sector. This approach, made possible by the 2014 "Document 60" reform, has stimulated massive investment and rapid innovation. The Chinese commercial space market grew from 800 billion yuan (~$109 billion) in 2019 to 1.9 trillion yuan (~$260 billion) in 2023. Investments, as monitored by Orbital Gateway Consulting, rose from $340 million in 2015 to $2.86 billion in 2024, with over 50% of 2024 funding coming from local governments, indicating the increasing strategic importance of the sector.

This growth is driven by a "triple helix" of innovation that unites universities, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and private companies in concentrated activity hubs.

Companies and Innovation Hubs

• Beijing. The epicenter of aerospace development, it is home to the China National Space Administration (CNSA) and the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC). The Haidian District hosts around 200 commercial space companies, including China SatNet. Academic hubs include Tsinghua University and Peking University.

• Shanghai. Focuses on the development of space vehicles and satellite communications. The Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST) is a CASC subsidiary that produces satellites and Long March rockets. It is home to prominent universities like Fudan University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University. The Qianfan (G60 Starlink) constellation, led by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST), is supported by the municipal government

• Xi'an. An R&D hub, it hosts the Xi'an Satellite Control Center, China's primary satellite control facility. The CAST Xi'an Institute of Space Radio Technology, a CAST subsidiary, provides the majority of payloads for Chinese satellites. Xi'an Jiaotong University and Northwestern Polytechnical University are renowned for aerospace engineering.

• Wuhan. Home to the Wuhan National Aerospace Industry Base of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), it has an annual production capacity of up to 50 rockets.

• Wenchang. With its coastal spaceport, it aims to become a hub for commercial launches, with the goal of supporting 100 launches per year starting in 2027.

  
  

Commercial Companies and Innovations

• Launch. Private companies like LandSpace (which launched the world's first methalox rocket, the Zhuque-2E), iSpace, and Galactic Energy are technological leaders in developing reusable rockets.

• Remote Sensing. Chang Guang Satellite Technology (CGST) operates the Jilin-1 constellation, the world's largest commercial remote-sensing constellation with approximately 130 satellites.

• LEO Constellations. The China Satellite Network Group is leading the GW constellation, which plans to have 12,992 satellites.

• Space and AI. ADA Space launched the first 12 satellites of the "Three-Body Computing Constellation," designed to process data in orbit in real-time, integrating an 8-billion-parameter AI model. This constellation aims to complement terrestrial cloud infrastructure and support data-intensive applications like AI and remote sensing.

• Satellite Manufacturing. Geespace's "superfactory" in Taizhou can assemble a new satellite in just 28 days, a prime example of intelligent automation.

Military Intelligence: The Dual-Use Threat and the "Kill Chain" Concept

The dual-use nature of space technology is a central theme in the CSF report, with China adopting a policy of "military-civil fusion". This means the Chinese leadership can access the intellectual property, equipment, and personnel of Chinese space companies, both commercial and state-owned, in the event of a crisis or war. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has benefited from China's growing space capabilities, with its Military Aerospace Force having access to a range of anti-satellite (ASAT) systems. The U.S. Space Force (USSF) has warned that China is making rapid progress in three critical areas of its military space program: space-based targeting systems, counter-space weapons, and the integration of its space capabilities with conventional forces.

According to the analysis "Chinese Space Domain: Beijing's 'Kill Chain' Alert," China is seeking to dominate the modern "kill chain," a six-phase model—Find, Fix, Track, Target, Engage, and Assess—in which space capabilities are increasingly intertwined. China's progress in each phase is shortening its "kill chain".

• Find. Chinese intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites act as the "eyes" in this phase. The USSF reports that China had over 500 ISR-capable satellites by the end of 2024, with 67 launched last year alone.

• Fix. The BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) is essential for providing precise satellite-derived coordinates. BeiDou has a constellation of 56 satellites, almost double that of GPS, and offers a two-way messaging capability that GPS lacks.

• Track. Chinese LEO satellite constellations are ideal for continuously monitoring a moving target, such as U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific.

• Target. China uses satellite communications (SATCOM) to rapidly transmit targeting data to conventional weapon systems, enabling precise engagement

• Engage. Satellites can provide navigation and final guidance for missiles. Chinese counter-space weapons, such as GPS or SATCOM jamming, are designed to disrupt an adversary's kill chain at this stage.

• Assess. Chinese ISR satellites can be repositioned to provide post-impact imagery to evaluate the effects of an attack.

  
  

Chinese Counter-Space Arsenal

According to USSF General Stephen Whiting, China is developing a diverse portfolio of counter-space weapons.

• Direct-Ascent Anti-Satellite Missiles (DA-ASAT). China has demonstrated the capability to shoot down satellites with ground-launched missiles since at least 2008.

• Co-orbital ASATs: These are satellites placed in orbit to threaten other satellites. The

  Tongxin Jishu Shiyan and Shijian series satellites are suspected of being disguised military satellites used for tests and surveillance. The Shijian-21 satellite, built by SAST, performed China's first active debris removal in GEO, a capability that could also have kinetic uses.

• Electronic Warfare and Jamming. The PLA regularly incorporates electronic warfare, including jamming satellite communications and GPS signals.

• Ground-Based Lasers. China possesses several ground-based laser systems designed to damage or degrade satellite sensors.

• Reusable Space Vehicles. The development of reusable spaceplanes like the Shenlong and Tengyun adds to China's counter-space capabilities.

  
  

Astropolitics and Geo-economic Prospects

Extrema Ratio analyses highlight that China is investing in next-generation technologies that will influence future space warfare. The construction of the world's first

space computing center with the launch of the "Three-Body Computing Constellation" is a prime example. This constellation, developed by Zhejiang Lab and Zhejiang University with support from Alibaba Cloud, is designed to process data in orbit in real-time, enabling faster disaster response and advanced AI capabilities in space.

China is expanding its influence through the "Space Silk Road" (Space Information Corridor), the orbital extension of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This initiative promotes over 80 international projects in countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Venezuela, Argentina, and others in Africa and South America^. By offering favorable loans and long-term contracts, China risks making partner nations vulnerable to "debt diplomacy" and surveillance.

The potential for a conflict over Taiwan is a key geostrategic scenario where China's space capabilities would play a decisive role. China's control and access to space would be fundamental for surveillance of U.S. and allied force movements, guidance for hypersonic missiles, and resilient communications, all while seeking to disrupt those of its adversaries.

China's space dominance also presents risks to the global civilian economy, as essential services like communications and navigation depend on satellites. Excessive militarization could also divert resources and talent from scientific research and peaceful exploration.

China's 2025 Commitments and Conclusions

2025 marks a crucial year for the acceleration of China's space programs. The announced missions clearly demonstrate China's ambition to expand its capabilities across all domains. China plans to launch the Tianwen-2 probe, which will conduct a sample-return mission from a near-Earth asteroid and orbit a comet, marking its first interplanetary sample-return mission. Commercial companies like LandSpace have plans for the debut of their reusable Zhuque-3 rocket, an important step toward reducing launch costs and increasing competitiveness with global providers.

In conclusion, as highlighted in the CSF report, China is not merely catching up; it is setting the pace, deregulating, and redefining what leadership in space looks like. China's ascendancy, fueled by a combination of state investment, a flourishing commercial sector, and a dual-use approach, constitutes a systemic threat to the industry, technology, and security of the United States.