The global overtaking project: the Sinocentric doctrine of wireless technology, the crisis of standards, and the risk of digital slavery (Extrema Ratio Intelligence)
- Gabriele Iuvinale
- 50 minuti fa
- Tempo di lettura: 6 min
The competition between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the West has now taken on the form of Liminal Warfare, a systemic conflict in which the future of the global order is at stake. Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, the Chinese leadership has translated its desire for power into an explicit geostrategic doctrine: global technological dominance, with the stated goal of surpassing the United States and establishing a new Sinocentric world order (the concept of G2 as legitimization of technological bipolarism).
The Beijing regime has enshrined the total fusion of civilian development with military and state objectives, making every technological advance a direct extension of its projection of force and control. This strategy is formalized in state mandates, such as the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which explicitly commands the achievement of technological self-sufficiency and addressing "fundamental key technologies".
In this scenario, technology is not only a matter of national security, but also the enabling factor for economic development, military modernization, and China's geostrategic projection in the 21st century. It is no longer a question of economic growth, but of technological hegemony as a tool for internal control and external projection.
Understanding this determination cannot be based solely on the interpretation of Chinese diplomacy and technological propaganda. It is essential to apply a rigorous Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) methodology, which is at the heart of the analysis provided by Extrema Ratio. Our analytical technique is designed to decipher raw data and official rhetoric, revealing the true underlying strategic intent that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seeks to conceal. Our approach demonstrates how every piece of data provided by Chinese state entities, such as the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) in this case, is a calculated pillar of a doctrine of power projection geared toward overcoming.
The recent Research Report on the Development of the Wireless Economy (2025) (CAICT) is therefore the primary source for this analysis, a strategic doctrine that quantifies the economic basis and roadmap for the imposition of a new digital order.
The Strategic Mandate: The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030)
Xi Jinping's vision has been formalized into a series of state objectives with specific deadlines. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) is the central mandate for accelerating technological independence. The goal set by the CCP is clear: achieve technological self-sufficiency and "address key core technologies." This is a national security imperative that justifies the massive allocation of resources and coordination of state-owned and private enterprises under the CCP's umbrella, turning every wireless innovation into a step toward global dominance.
The Scale of an Aggressively Expanding Power (CAICT 2024 Data)
The wireless economy acts as the strategic weapon, serving as the nerve center for militarily critical innovation and massive data collection.
The dominance of Wireless Empowerment is interpreted by Extrema Ratio as evidence that China has moved past simple production into the phase of integration and horizontal control of data flows, an exclusive strategic resource for the CCP.
THE WAR FOR HEGEMONY: CHIPS, STANDARDS, AND THE CIRCUMVENTION DOCTRINE
The hottest front in the race for global technological dominance is the foundational ecosystem of communication standards and semiconductors.
The Chip Crisis and Innovation Through Circumvention
The US embargo on advanced semiconductors has forced China into a strategic reaction Extrema Ratio defines as "innovation through circumvention."
Strategic Objective. Unable (yet) to match Western EUV lithography technology, China has focused its national resources on optical networking, quantity production, and hardware-software co-optimization for AI. This is a national security imperative dictated by the need for self-sufficiency, in line with the 15th Five-Year Plan mandate to address "fundamental key technologies".
Geopolitical Impact. The strategy aims to guarantee that critical technologies remain under state control, even if initial performance trails the US, thereby mitigating reliance on foreign supply chains.
6G: Standardization as a Weapon and the Antithesis to the Liberal Order
China aims for 6G commercialization by 2030, aligning with the 15th Five-Year Plan's timeline. This reflects the political will to dominate the standard definition through aggressive patent dumping in bodies like the 3GPP (which began standardization research in June 2025).
OSINT and the Intent of Control. Extrema Ratio interprets the 6G strategy as an act of Liminal Warfare to impose a network architecture that, by design, facilitates state surveillance and global intelligence gathering. The fusion of capabilities like Integrated Communications and Sensing (通感一体)—which enables 0.1-meter precision sensing—and Integrated Space-Ground (天地一体) are direct dual-use advancements supporting the PLA.
Economic Advantage. Imposing a Sinocentric 6G standard guarantees that Chinese companies secure an asymmetrical competitive advantage (low TCO) and that data flow is structured to serve Beijing’s interests.
5G-Advanced: Industrial Empowerment and Security
5G-Advanced (5G-A) is the current tool for realizing civil-military fusion in the industrial sector.
Standardization IoT (StarFlash). The StarFlash initiative aims to become the global IoT standard. Extrema Ratio's analysis highlights that adopting this standard means countries accept an integrated ecosystem that extends surveillance and control into their own critical infrastructures.
Capillary Control: "5G + Industrial Internet" projects (over 18,500) and the 4.5 trillion Yuan value of Wireless Empowerment quantify the asymmetrical intelligence advantage obtained by centrally controlling production data.
VERTICAL DOMINANCE: BUILDING DIGITAL SOVEREIGNTY
The Chinese project for technological supremacy is articulated across the control of three physical domains, all interconnected by the BeiDou system, the pillar of China's digital sovereignty.
A. Satellite Internet and Space-Ground Integration (Space Intelligence)
China's space plan is an aggressive response to Western dominance, aimed at securing a redundant and safe communication system for national security.
Orbital Dominance and LEO Saturation. The request to the ITU for a planned fleet of 149,000 satellites in LEO is a saturation strategy. Constellations like "Qianfan" and "Jilin-1" (the largest commercial sub-meter remote sensing constellation) guarantee reconnaissance, surveillance, and secure communication (ISR) capabilities, vital for military modernization and crisis scenarios.
Militarization of Consumption. The integration of the Tianti (天通) satellite system into mainstream terminals ensures a PRC-controlled, redundant network, essential for military communications and disaster management.
B. Low-Altitude Economy (低空经济) and Non-Conventional Air Surveillance
The Low-Altitude Economy (projected at 3.5 trillion Yuan by 2035) is building a framework for non-conventional air surveillance and command.
BeiDou and Internal Security. Low-altitude traffic management systems, based on BeiDou, achieve 0.1-meter positioning accuracy and manage extremely high operational density (5,000 flights/km²). Extrema Ratio interprets this infrastructure as a national security asset that transforms the low-altitude airspace into a constant data feeder for state surveillance.
C. Connected Vehicles and Digital Autonomy (Ground Intelligence)
Intelligent Connected Vehicles are the vector for digital autonomy and the consolidation of the national navigation system.
Total Independence from GPS. The extensive use of BeiDou integrated with 5G enables fully independent Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT). The C-V2X systems (over 1 million terminals installed in 2024) ensure that all vehicle data flows into centralized platforms accessible to the CCP, transforming transportation into a massive source of intelligence data.
STRATEGIC CONCLUSIONS: THE SINOCENTRIC THREAT
An integrated analysis of the data, the geopolitical context, Xi Jinping's political will, and the 15th Five-Year Plan, in addition to all other sources analyzed, confirms that China is seeking to achieve technological hegemony in order to surpass the United States.
Extrema Ratio provides the key to decoding this data and transforming it into operational intelligence. The strategy of Demolishing Western Pillars is clear:
Demolition of Standards. Leveraging "standardization as a weapon" to impose its model in 6G and IoT, securing an asymmetrical advantage in line with the 15th Five-Year Plan's mandate for technological self-sufficiency.
Demolition of PNT. Replacing GPS with BeiDou in all critical applications, ensuring national independence and military superiority.
Demolition of Competitive Advantage. Systematic use of Wireless Empowerment (4.5 trillion Yuan) to digitally penetrate and control global supply chains, securing a strategic intelligence advantage vital for Chinese national security.
Extrema Ratio's OSINT analysis is the indispensable tool for grasping the danger beyond the technological diplomacy. The Western response must be a swift geopolitical countermeasure, focused not only on supply chain security but on reclaiming the initiative in global standardization, before the Sinocentric digital architecture becomes irreversibly dominant.
Facing this systemic threat, Extrema Ratio positions itself as a strategic partner, offering consulting, intelligence, and training to governments and businesses to mitigate emerging risks and defend strategic interests from the growing Chinese authoritarian and technological influence.